Will Interest Rates Go Down in October? | Predictions 2025

Mortgage rate forecast for next week (Sept. 29-Oct. 3)

After plummeting for four weeks straight, mortgage rates gained a few basis points.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rose to 6.30% on Sept. 25 from 6.26% on Sept. 18, according to Freddie Mac. That marks 36 consecutive weeks below 7% for the average 30-year FRM.

“As was widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve lowered its federal funds rate target by 25 basis points in its September FOMC meeting. However, with financial markets pricing in a more aggressive easing of monetary policy than the Federal Reserve might deliver, bond yields and mortgage rates rose in the following days,” said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans.

“Mortgage markets are forward-looking — pricing in Fed moves ahead of time, similar to the pattern observed in September 2024, when rates initially dropped in anticipation but subsequently rose following the Fed’s actual rate cut. Ultimately, incoming labor market and inflation data will determine the pace of future monetary policy changes.”

Though lagging, the most recent weekly mortgage application report from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed a seasonally adjusted 0.6% increase for the seven days ending Sept. 19. The refinance index rose 1% and the purchase index edged up 0.3% week-over-week.

“Mortgage applications have now increased three straight weeks, with both refinance and purchase activity posting weekly and annual gains. As mortgage rates move closer to 6 percent, we expect application activity to continue to increase,” said Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO at the MBA.

In this article (Skip to...)

• Will rates go down in October?
• 90-day forecast
• Expert rate predictions
• Mortgage rate trends
• Rates by loan type
• Mortgage strategies for October
• Mortgage rates FAQ

Will mortgage rates go down in October?

“I expect mortgage rates to ease modestly into year-end, but I wouldn’t frame this as a straight-line story.”

-Tony Julianelle, CEO at Atlas Real Estate

Mortgage rates fluctuated significantly in 2023, with the average 30-year fixed rate going as low as 6.09% and as high as 7.79%, according to Freddie Mac. That range narrowed in 2024, spreading from 6.08% to 7.22%, and narrowed further in 2025 between 6.26% and 7.04%.

With the economy probably heading into a recession, we may have already seen the peak of this rate cycle. But if inflation rises, mortgage rates could uptrend. Of course, interest rates are driven by many factors and notoriously volatile, so they could change direction any given week.

Experts from Cornerstone Capital, First American, and others weigh in on whether 30-year mortgage rates will climb, fall, or level off in October.

Expert mortgage rate predictions for October

Dan Cooper, EVP of capital markets and servicing at Cornerstone Capital Bank

Prediction: Rates will decrease

“Several factors will likely result in a stable to modest downward drift in interest rates during October, including fear that tariffs will continue to push inflation higher combined with concerns over a weakening economy. Right now, we’re seeing slowing business activity, falling factory orders, weaker consumer spending, softer hiring, and a sharp drop in housing starts and permits. These factors, along with the high probability of another 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the end of October, should result in stable interest rates overall, with a slight bias toward mortgage rates drifting lower throughout the month.”

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“September brought us the lowest average rates we have seen in 2025. That was a result of the anticipated cut by the Fed. I believe that the Fed could cut in the future, but it may not be at the next meeting. With that being the case, I do believe we have found a new average rate that the market is comfortable with, based on what’s going on in the economy. Unemployment is higher, inflation is creeping up, and the real estate market has gotten busier with buyers.”

Charles Goodwin, head of bridge and DSCR lending at Kiavi

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“The 10-year Treasury yield has trended down throughout summer and into September. However, in the days following the recent cut, the 10-year Treasury yield—which is tied to mortgage rates—has increased. This also occurred after the September 2024 rate cuts, and bond investors are clearly still concerned about long-term inflation prospects.

“Inflation and jobs data remain wild cards, as persistent inflation could keep pressure on yields, while weaker employment reports could create more room for rates to move down eventually. Overall, the lending environment is shaping up to be slightly more favorable for borrowers, even if a dramatic rate cut isn’t in the cards any time soon. My advice for borrowers is not to wait for that mythical perfect rate — if the numbers work and you have a solid purchase in mind, it’s a good time to act.”

Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“Mortgage rates in October are likely to continue to be in a data driven tug of war. I expect this to net out that mortgage rates are on average, slightly lower in October versus September, and stay within the 6.25%-to-6.5% range we saw in September. As we approached the Fed meeting, mortgage rates eased as expectations of a Fed rate cut rose, mirroring trends in longer term bond yields.

“Following the Fed’s rate cut, longer-term rates have edged higher, as projections from Fed participants are divided about the likely course of monetary policy, and the central tendency of Fed projections implies a somewhat higher policy rate than investors have priced in. This gap between Fed and investor expectations has created some near-term upward pressure on interest rates, including mortgage rates. Of course, incoming data will shape investor perceptions and the ultimate policy course. To the extent that inflation or economic growth and labor market data are higher than expected, I anticipate mortgage rates to trend to the upper side of the range. If inflation is lower or economic growth and labor market data weaker than anticipated, then we’ll see mortgage rates on the lower end of the range.”

Tony Julianelle, CEO at Atlas Real Estate

Prediction: Rates will decrease

“I expect mortgage rates to ease modestly into year-end, but I wouldn’t frame this as a straight-line story. I’m cautiously optimistic we’ll see a mild reprieve, but it’s fragile. Think of it as a tug-of-war: softening labor markets and a dovish Fed pulling one way, while inflation, tariffs, and fiscal pressures tug the other. My base case is modest relief - a 20–40 basis-point decline - but I’d put meaningful odds on rates bouncing higher again if inflation proves sticky. For now, borrowers may get a little breathing room, but no one should bank on it.”

Matt Pettit, president at Mountain West Financial

Prediction: Rates will decrease

“The Federal Reserve is reducing rates to send a message that mortgage lending needs to become more affordable. Home prices remain elevated, and reducing the monthly cost of owning a home would help more families purchase properties. However, this is only a small portion of the market correction necessary to open up home sales, especially for starter homes. The addition of down payment assistance programs, as well as other incentives, must be increased to right the housing ship.”

Rick Sharga, president and CEO of CJ Patrick Company

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“Mortgage rates have ticked up slightly since September’s long-anticipated Fed Funds rate cut, and are likely to remain in a narrow range between 6.25-6.5% for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan through October as the market awaits further guidance from the FOMC meeting at the end of the month. Further slowing in the U.S. economy and a weakening jobs market could force the Fed’s hand to cut further and faster, which would likely lead to lower mortgage rates as we approach the end of the year.”

Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American

Prediction: Rates will decrease

“Heading into October, borrowers can expect mortgage rates in the mid-to-low 6% range—a modest decline from the 6.5% averages seen in early September. Home buyers and borrowers can thank the notable shift in the Federal Reserve’s tone for the recent dip in rates, with policymakers acknowledging rising risks to the labor market, which has pushed down 10-year Treasury yields that mortgage rates loosely follow. Financial markets are already pricing in three rate cuts by year-end, suggesting limited room for further declines unless incoming data shows sharper labor market deterioration or a more pronounced slowdown in inflation. For now, the easing offers a welcome—if modest—improvement in affordability.”

Mortgage interest rates forecast next 90 days

As inflation ran rampant in 2022, the Federal Reserve took action to bring it down and that led to the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage spiking in 2023.

With inflation gradually cooling, the Fed made three rate cuts in 2024 (September, November, and December). Then as uncertainty reigned in 2025, the central bank held the federal funds rate range steady for its first five meetings before deciding a weakening job market was enough to make a cut in September.

Of course, rates could rise or fall on any given week due to many factors or if another global event causes widespread uncertainty in the economy.

Mortgage rate predictions for 2025

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.3% as of Sept. 25, according to Freddie Mac. Four of five major housing authorities we looked at predict 2025’s fourth quarter average to finish above that.

Wells Fargo sits at the low end of the group, projecting the average 30-year fixed interest rate to settle at 6.3% for Q4. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors had the highest forecast of 6.7%.

Current mortgage interest rate trends

Mortgage rates rose week-over-week.

The average 30-year fixed rate increased to 6.3% on Sept. 25 from 6.26% on Sept. 18. The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate similarly grew to 5.49% from 5.41%.

Source: Freddie Mac

After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023 before descending somewhat in 2024. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2025. Whatever happens, interest rates are still below historical averages.

Dating back to April 1971, the fixed 30-year interest rate averaged around 7.8%, according to Freddie Mac. So if you haven’t locked a rate yet, don’t lose too much sleep over it. You can still get a good deal, historically speaking — especially if you’re a borrower with strong credit.

Just make sure you shop around to find the best lender and lowest rate for your unique situation.

Mortgage rate trends by loan type

Many mortgage shoppers don’t realize there are different types of rates in today’s mortgage market. But this knowledge can help home buyers and refinancing households find the best value for their situation.

Which mortgage loan is best?

The best mortgage for you depends on your financial situation and your goals.

For instance, if you want to buy a high-priced home and you have great credit, a jumbo loan is your best bet. Jumbo mortgages allow loan amounts above conforming loan limits, which max out at $ in most parts of the U.S.

On the other hand, if you’re a veteran or service member, a VA loan is almost always the right choice. VA loans are backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. They provide ultra-low rates and never charge private mortgage insurance (PMI). But you need an eligible service history to qualify.

Conforming loans and FHA loans (those backed by the Federal Housing Administration) are great low-down-payment options.

Conforming loans allow as little as 3% down with FICO scores starting at 620. FHA loans are even more lenient about credit; home buyers can often qualify with a score of 580 or higher, and a less-than-perfect credit history might not disqualify you.

Finally, consider a USDA loan if you want to buy or refinance real estate in a rural area. USDA loans have below-market rates — similar to VA — and reduced mortgage insurance costs. The catch? You need to live in a ‘rural’ area and have moderate or low income to be USDA-eligible.

Mortgage rate strategies for October 2025

Mortgage rates displayed their famous volatility throughout 2024 before falling into a gradual decline through 2025. The Fed’s September rate cut and potential for more in 2025 and 2026 provide optimism for descending rates.

However, the Trump Administration’s wealth consolidation and upturning inflation caused the Fed to pause in January, March, May, June, and July. As always, the committee said it would adjust its policies as necessary — which could mean additional cuts, none at all or even potential raises.

Here are just a few strategies to keep in mind if you’re mortgage shopping in the coming months.

Be ready to move quickly

Indecision can lead to failure or missed opportunities. That holds true in home buying as well.

Although the housing market is becoming more balanced than the recent past, it still favors sellers. Prospective borrowers should take the lessons learned from the last few years and apply them now even though conditions are less extreme.

“Taking too long to decide to make an offer can lead to paying more for the home at best and at worst to losing out on it entirely. Buyers should get pre-approved (not pre-qualified) for their mortgage, so that the seller has some certainty about the deal closing. And be ready to close quickly — a long escrow period will put you at a disadvantage.

“And it’s definitely not a bad idea to work with a real estate agent who has access to “coming soon” properties, which can give a buyer a little bit of a head start competing for the limited number of homes available,” said Rick Sharga.

If mortgage rates continue on a downward trajectory, more and more buyers will likely enter the market after being priced out on the sidelines. Being decisive (and prepared) should only play to your advantage.

Shopping around isn’t only for the holidays

Since interest rates can vary drastically from day to day and from lender to lender, failing to shop around likely leads to money lost.

Lenders charge different rates for different levels of credit scores. And while there are ways to negotiate a lower mortgage rate, the easiest is to get multiple quotes from multiple lenders and leverage them against each other.

“For potential home buyers, it’s important to get quotes from multiple lenders for a mortgage, as rates can vary dramatically, especially during such a volatile period,” said Odeta Kushi.

As the mortgage market slows due to lessened demand, lenders will be more eager for business. While missing out on the rock-bottom rates of 2020 and 2021 may sting, there’s always a way to use the market to your advantage.

How to shop for interest rates

Rate shopping doesn’t just mean looking at the lowest rates advertised online because those aren’t available to everyone. Typically, those are offered to borrowers with great credit who can put a down payment of 20% or more.

The rate lenders actually offer depends on:

• Your credit score and credit history
• Your personal finances
• Your down payment (if buying a home)
• Your home equity (if refinancing)
• Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV)
• Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI)

To figure out what rate a lender can offer you based on those factors, you have to fill out a loan application. Lenders will check your credit and verify your income and debts, then give you a ‘real’ rate quote based on your financial situation.

You should get three to five of these quotes at a minimum, then compare them to find the best offer. Look for the lowest rate, but also pay attention to your annual percentage rate (APR), estimated closing costs, and ‘discount points’ — extra fees charged upfront to lower your rate.

This might sound like a lot of work. But you can shop for mortgage rates in under a day if you put your mind to it. And shaving just a few basis points off your rate can save you thousands.

Mortgage interest rate FAQ

What are today’s mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are rising, but borrowers can almost always find a better deal by shopping around. Connect with a mortgage lender to find out exactly what rate you qualify for.

¹Today's mortgage rates are based on a daily survey of select lending partners of The Mortgage Reports. Interest rates shown here assume a credit score of 740. See our full loan assumptions here.

Selected sources:

• https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
• http://www.freddiemac.com/research/datasets/refinance-stats/index.page