Will mortgage rates go down in March 2020? Forecast and trends

Mortgage rates forecast for March 2020

March should be another stellar month for mortgage rates.

Rates hit a 3-year low in February and are holding to similar levels.

There have been few better times to lock in a mortgage. A $300,000 home loan now costs $250 per month less than it did in late 2018, according to Freddie Mac data.

Sure, rates could go lower, but there’s much more upside to rates right now than downside.

Consider carefully whether you want to bet on lower rates.

Find and lock a low rate. (Feb 26th, 2020)

Predictions for March

March could be a wild ride for mortgage rates. Market-moving news will leave rates different than they were in February. The only question is, will they be more or less advantageous for mortgage shoppers?

Skip to:

• Mortgage rates next 90 days
• Today’s live mortgage rates
• Mortgage rate predictions
• Federal Reserve moves
• Featured lenders this month
• Will rates stay low?
• Mortgage rate trends
• Advice for March
• Mortgage strategy for March
• Conventional, FHA, VA, and USDA rates
• Economic calendar

Forecasts for 2020 say rates will average around 3.7%. But rates could fluctuate greatly around that range.

For instance, rates could bounce between 3.5% and 4% all year, and you’d get an average of around 3.7%. But when you lock during that range is important.

The good news is that 30-year fixed rates are now near 3.5% according to Freddie Mac. It’s time to consider locking in the low end of 2020’s mortgage rate range.

Mortgage rates next 90 days

The below chart shows past mortgage rate trends and predictions for the next 90 days based on 2020 forecasts from major housing authorities.

Current live mortgage rates

The Mortgage Reports recently launched a live mortgage rate portal where you can see today’s rates based on your state and lending criteria.

• California
• Texas
• New York
• Florida
• All states

You can now check your live rate quote without contacting a lender or entering any personal information.

>>Show me today’s rates.

Unexpected rate changer in March: coronavirus

Mortgage rates will continue to fluctuate based on developments in the fight against the coronavirus, also called COVID-19.

In February, markets were watching the spread of the virus, with new cases being discovered in many countries outside China.

Mortgage rate watchers are justified in wondering how a virus could affect rates. The relationship is not exactly obvious.

Mortgage rates fall during times of economic uncertainty and lower expectations of inflation. The coronavirus contributes to both.

Officials are limiting travel and transportation in Wuhan, which is a major trade and export hub in China. The decreased activity and mobility in one of China’s largest cities could spark a wider slowdown that could disrupt economic growth and slow inflation worldwide.

Additionally, economic growth could slow on a global scale as factory production slows, people travel less, and overall activity lessens.

In mid-February, Apple, one of the world’s largest companies, announced it would miss revenue projections for the quarter. It blamed factory closings in China and a slower return to normal conditions than expected.

Additionally, demand in China slowed, as people were hesitant to enter stores.

Apple is just one indicator of how a larger outbreak could slow the pace of the global economy.

Of course, no one wants a global health situation, but one unexpected outcome could be lower rates through March and perhaps beyond.

Lock in today's rates. Start here. (Feb 26th, 2020)

Will the Fed change rates in March?

Don’t expect much movement in mortgage rates after the March 17-18 Federal Reserve meeting.

The group has broadcasted again and again that it wishes to maintain the level of its benchmark rate, called the federal funds rate.

CME Group, which publishes its FedWatch Tool, says there’s a 90% chance that the Fed will maintain current fed funds rate levels, at the time of this writing.

After slicing the rate three times in 2019 — in the face of one of the greatest expansions in U.S. history — the Federal Reserve isn’t enthusiastic to provide more stimulus to an already-hot economy.

In fact, the Fed doesn’t expect to drop rates again at all in 2020.

Unemployment is near 50-year lows, the stock market is at all-time highs, and inflation is stagnant. It’s a real “Goldilocks scenario” — meaning nearly all aspects of the economy are just right.

All this means the March 2020 Fed meeting should be a real snoozer, with no rate adjustment and no major policy shifts.

Luckily, mortgage rates are already at three-year lows and don’t need an artificial push downward by the Fed.

Will mortgage rates stay low?

Though rates may rise somewhat, we are still predicting rates well below 4% through mid-2020.

That’s consistent with predictions from major housing authorities.

But just when you thought you could sit back and buy a home later this year, I have to mention how unpredictable rates are.

Back in late 2018, housing experts were calling for rates in the 5s for 2019. Rates bottomed out at 3.49%.

So does that mean that rates will hit 5% in 2020, now that experts predict sub-4% rates? It’s quite possible.

Related: 2020 mortgage rates forecast from 10 experts

The fact is that most predictions are wrong (an awkward thing to say in the middle of a mortgage rates forecast article). So don’t risk homeownership based on forecasts.

Sure, rates are supposed to stay around 3.7% through 2020 according to experts. But rates are lower than that now. So why not capture a low rate now and eliminate any and all risk of rising rates?

But if you’d still like me to make the case for lower rates, here goes.

Rate-suppressing factors include:

China trade war: Let’s face it. This issue isn’t going away any time soon. The more uncertainty the U.S.-China trade war brings, the lower rates might go. And even if we fully resolve this conflict, the U.S. economy is spooked. Manufacturers will be gunshy about turning production “up to 11” if they feel a new trade war could ruin them.

Coronavirus: As described above, the outbreak poses risks to economic growth and lowers inflation concerns. While everyone hopes the virus can be contained, an unexpected spike in cases would keep rates low.

Demand for U.S. financial instruments: Mortgage rates are determined by the price of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). (Learn how mortgage rates are made here.) These are financial instruments, bought and sold by investors worldwide. As rates fall in other economies (Japan and Germany are now issuing negative-rate bonds), U.S. mortgages are looking awfully attractive. Even a 3% return on investment is better than 0% or even negative. Imagine if you had to pay to keep your money in a savings account. That’s exactly what investors in many economies are doing. U.S. mortgage bonds will continue to deliver positive returns, so investors will pile in. This demand drives down consumer mortgage rates.

If you’ve been thinking about a home purchase, refinance, or home equity line of credit, this month is looking to be a great one to take action.

Find and lock a low rate. (Feb 26th, 2020)

Mortgage rate trends as predicted by housing authorities

Housing agencies nationwide are calling for rates in the high 3s for 2020.

To sum it up, rate predictions vary widely. Today’s rate might be as good as we’ll see for years to come, or they might improve.

Advice for March 2020: If you can find a home, buy it

Knowing what will happen in March is only half the battle. As a mortgage rate shopper, you need to know the best actions to take in light of this information.

Expect the housing market to heat up as the spring buying season approaches.

Mortgage rates are low and the housing market is hot, but it’s not all good news for home shoppers. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), we’re in the midst of a terribly one-sided market.

There’s just a 3.0 month supply of homes on the market, making it the biggest seller’s market since at least 1982 when the NAR started tracking data. A 6-month supply is considered an even balance between buyers and sellers.

The months’ supply count has been rotating between 3.5 and 4.5 for the last five years.

In short, if you find a home to buy, buy it. There will be increasing competition for fewer homes in March 2020 and beyond.

Mortgage strategies for March 2020

In March, be watching for emerging mortgage products that will gain traction in 2020.

For home buyers, there have been few better times to be looking for a home.

Co-signer mortgage: As home prices and student loan balances rise, first-time home buyers find it difficult to qualify. Their starter incomes just aren’t high enough. That’s why parents, relatives, and friends are agreeing to co-sign on their mortgages. You can “blend” your income with the co-signer’s to qualify for more. The co-signer does not have to live in the home. Here’s how it might work: If you make $5,000 per month, you could afford a home for $280,000 assuming your debt payments are low. But you bring on a co-signer, also with $5,000 monthly income and low debts. Suddenly, you can afford $570,000. There are plenty of rules and risks for the co-signer, but this strategy could work out nicely for moderate-income home buyers, especially in expensive locales.

Bigger loan amounts: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac released new, higher conforming loan limits for 2020. Now, homeowners can get loans up to $510,400 without crossing into jumbo loan territory. Jumbo mortgages often require stricter qualifying requirements. Half-million-dollar loans are now readily available from nearly every bank and mortgage company in the country. In the most expensive locales such as San Francisco, an applicant can be approved for even higher loans: a 1-unit home loan can go as high as $765,600, and a 4-unit home, up to $1,472,550. Look up your local limit with our loan limit tool.

Low down payment jumbo loans: One national mortgage lender has created a 5% down loan up to $2 million with no PMI, or 10% down to $3 million with no PMI. If you’re a high-income home buyer, but don’t want to tie up all your assets with a 20-30% down payment, these types of products will be a huge benefit to you in 2020.

Buying a vacation home as your first home: In many locations such as San Francisco, Seattle, and New York, it’s just not feasible to buy as a younger person. You may end up with a mortgage payment two or three times your current rent amount. But many people are looking outside the city to buy their first homes. You can still live and rent in the city, but buy in a recreational area where homes are much cheaper. Plus, you have a nice vacation spot any time you want it. Not using it for months at a time? Rent it out on Airbnb to help make the payments. This will be an emerging trend as more people want to buy homes but find it unrealistic in their city.

Bank statement loans: If you’re self-employed, pay attention to bank statement loan programs. Lenders will review 12-24 months of your bank statements to prove your income. Many newly self-employed applicants are denied because they don’t have two years’ worth of filed tax returns (the traditional qualification method). Or, write-offs are so high that bottom-line income is too low to qualify for anything. In 2020, more lenders will accept your bank statement deposits as proof of income, allowing more renters to become homeowners.

Apply for a niche loan program. Start here. (Feb 26th, 2020)

Loan product rate updates

Many mortgage shoppers don’t realize there are many different types of rates. But this knowledge can help home buyers and refinancing households find the best value for their situation.

Following are updates for specific loan types and their corresponding rates.

»RELATED: Know Your Options: Should I put less than 20% down on a house?

Conventional loan rates

Conventional refinance rates and those for home purchases have trended lower in 2020.

According to loan software company Ellie Mae, the 30-year mortgage rate averaged 4.03% in January (the most recent data available).

This is higher than Freddie Mac’s 3.49% average because it factors in low credit and low-down-payment conventional loan closings, which tend to come with higher rates. Additionally, the most recent Ellie Mae report shows rate levels before they started dropping significantly.

Lower credit score borrowers can use conventional loans, but these loans are more suited for those with decent credit and at least 3% down. Five percent down is preferable due to higher rates that come with lower down payments.

Twenty percent of equity is preferred when refinancing.

With adequate equity in the home, a conventional refinance can pay off any loan type. Got an Alt-A, subprime, or high-PMI loan? A conventional refi can take care of it.

For instance, say you purchased a home three years ago with an FHA loan at 3.5% down. Since then, home values have skyrocketed.

You now have 20% equity, so you can refinance into a conventional loan and eliminate FHA mortgage insurance.

This could be a savings of hundreds of dollars per month, even if your interest rate goes up.

Getting rid of mortgage insurance is a big deal. This mortgage calculator with PMI estimates your current mortgage insurance cost. Enter a 20% down payment to see your new payment without PMI.

Find a low conventional loan rate. Start here. (Feb 26th, 2020)

FHA mortgage rates

FHA is currently the go-to program for home buyers who may not qualify for conventional loans.

The good news is that you will get a similar rate — or even lower — with an FHA loan than you will with conventional.

Related: Read more about FHA costs and requirements on our FHA loan calculator page.

According to loan software company Ellie Mae, which processes more than 3 million loans per year, FHA loan rates averaged 3.91% in January (the most recent data available), a bit lower than the average conventional rate.

Another interesting stat from Ellie Mae: About 30% of all FHA loans are issued to applicants with scores below 650.

FHA loans come with mortgage insurance. But the overall cost is not much more than for conventional loans.

A little-known program, called the FHA streamline refinance, lets you convert your current FHA loan into a new one at a lower rate if rates are now lower.

An FHA streamline requires no W2s, pay stubs, or tax returns. And you don’t need an appraisal, so home value doesn’t matter.

Learn more about the FHA streamline refinance here.

Find low FHA rates. Start here. (Feb 26th, 2020)

VA mortgage rates

Homeowners with a VA loan currently are eligible for the ever-popular VA streamline refinance.

No income, asset, or appraisal documentation is required.

If you’ve experienced a loss of income or diminished savings, a VA streamline can get you into a lower rate and better financial situation. This is true even when you wouldn’t qualify for a standard refinance.

But don’t overlook the VA loan for home buying. It requires zero down payment. That means if you have the cash for closing costs, or can get them paid for by the seller, you can buy a home without raising any additional funds.

Don’t overlook the VA loan for home buying. It requires zero down payment.

VA mortgages are offered by local and national lenders, not by the government directly.

This public-private partnership offers consumers the best of both worlds: strong government backing and the convenience and speed of a private company.

Most lenders will accept scores down to 620, or even lower. Plus, you don’t pay high interest rates for low scores.

Quite the contrary, VA loans come with the lowest rates of all loan types according to Ellie Mae. In January (the most recent data available), 30-year VA mortgage rates averaged just 3.64% while conventional loans averaged 4.03%, representing a big discount if you’re a veteran.

Check your monthly payment with this VA loan calculator.

There’s incredible value in VA loans.

Check today's VA loan rates. Start here. (Feb 26th, 2020)

USDA mortgage rates

Like FHA and VA, current USDA loan holders can refinance via a “streamlined” process.

With the USDA streamline refinance, you don’t need a new appraisal. You don’t even have to qualify using your current income. The lender will only make sure that you are still within USDA income limits.

More about the USDA streamline refinance.

Home buyers are also learning the benefits of the USDA loan program for home buying.

No down payment is required, and rates are ultra-low.

Home payments can be even lower than rent payments, as this USDA loan calculator shows.

Qualification is easier because the government wants to spur homeownership in rural areas. Home buyers might qualify even if they’ve been turned down for another loan type in the past.

Find a lock low USDA rates. (Feb 26th, 2020)

Mortgage rates today

While a monthly mortgage rate forecast is helpful, it’s important to know that rates change daily.

You might get 3.9% today, and 4.0% tomorrow. Many factors alter the direction of current mortgage rates.

To get a synopsis of what’s happening today, visit our daily rate update. You will find live rates and lock recommendations.

March economic calendar

The next thirty days hold no shortage of market-moving news. In general, news that points to a strengthening economy could mean higher rates, while bad news can make rates drop.

• Monday, March 2: ISM Manufacturing
• Friday, March 6: Nonfarm Payrolls, wages, unemployment rate
• Wednesday, March 11: Consumer Price Index
• Thursday, March 12: ECB Announcement (Europe’s equivalent to the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting)
• Tuesday, March 17: NAHB Housing
• Wednesday, March 18: Fed meeting adjourns, rate announcement
• Wednesday, March 18: Housing Starts
• Friday, March 20: Existing Home Sales
• Thursday, March 26: GDP
• Monday, March 30: Pending Home Sales

Now could be the time to lock in a rate in case these events push up rates this month.

Mortgage rates Q&A

Below are some of the most common questions about mortgage rates.

What are today’s mortgage rates?

Low mortgage rates are still available. You can get a rate quote within minutes with just a few simple steps to start.

Show Me Today's Rates (Feb 26th, 2020)  

Selected sources:

• https://www.elliemae.com/mortgage-data/origination-insight-reports
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/02/17/apple-said-it-wont-meet-its-quarterly-revenue-goals-because-coronaviruss-impact-production-demand/
• https://www.bankrate.com/investing/trump-impeachment-what-it-means-for-stock-investors/
• https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm