Mortgage Interest Rate Predictions: Will Rates Go Down in April 2023?

March 29, 2023 - 17 min read

Mortgage rate forecast for next week (April 3-7)

Ongoing concerns in the banking sector and a diminutive hike from the Fed resulted in interest rates declining for the second consecutive week.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) declined from 6.6% on March 16 to 6.42% on March 23, according to Freddie Mac.

“On the homebuyer front, the news is more positive with improved purchase demand and stabilizing home prices. If mortgage rates continue to slide over the next few weeks, look for a continued rebound during the first weeks of the spring homebuying season,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

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Will mortgage rates go down in April?

Mortgage rates fluctuated significantly to open 2023. In the first quarter, the average 30-year fixed rate went as low as 6.09% on Feb. 2 and climbed up to 6.73% on March 9, according to Freddie Mac.

The range can be largely attributed to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against inflation, juxtaposed with uncertainty in the banking sector sparked by Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. However, with duress permeating the financial market and helping to ease inflation, the Fed is expected to make smaller rate hikes for the rest of 2023.

With the economy likely heading into a recession, it’s possible we’ve already seen the peak of this rate cycle. Of course, interest rates are notoriously volatile and could tick back up on any given week.

Experts from CJ Patrick Company, Clever Real Estate, the National Association of Realtors, and others weigh in on whether 30-year mortgage rates will climb, fall, or level off in April.

Expert mortgage rate predictions for April

Tony Chahal, Clever Real Estate Senior Vice President of Partnerships

Tony Chahal, SVP of partnerships at Clever Real Estate

“The Fed now has a very delicate balancing act to perform, curb inflation so it’s manageable, but not be so aggressive with rate hikes that it triggers further bank failures. Annual inflation in February was 6%, which is well above the Fed’s target of 2% and particularly concerning the rising cost of services.

The Fed is now in a very tough position as it still has maintained their goal to curb inflation to 2% annually. We believe that the Fed will be less hawkish in the short term on increasing interest rates until it has put safeguards in place to protect the banking system.”

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

Prediction: Rates will drop

“I believe we will see the 30- and 15-year fixed mortgage rates trend down on average. Settling at 6% on 30-Year and 5.5% on 15-year. Rates seem to be trending down over the last few weeks based mostly on a new banking crisis and the Fed meeting.

The collapse of Silicon Valley bank and crisis surrounding similar banks such as Signature Bank has shown that no matter what the inflation numbers say, we are currently in a general recessionary period. Because of that, the Fed’s stand on continued raising of interest rates has softened and I believe the volatility will subside some.”

Nadia Evangelou, senior economist & director of forecasting at the National Association of Realtors

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“Mortgage rates will continue to fluctuate next month depending on the new developments in the banking sector. However, this softer rate hike can help mortgage rates to remain near 6.5%. With inflation easing slowly but steadily, rates will gradually move down in the following months.

Inflation, the Federal Reserve’s next steps, and banking sector developments are the three main factors that will affect mortgage rates and, consequently, the housing market in April.”

Selma Hepp, chief economist at Corelogic

Prediction: Rates will drop

“Mortgage rates will likely move around the 6.5% range though there is a potential for movement closer to 6% in April. Last week, Fed officials signaled that they may have reached their rate hiking cycle in light of the banking crisis, which was a signal the mortgage investors needed.

More certainty around the Fed’s action will help stabilize some of the volatility we have seen with mortgage rates over the last couple of months. Nevertheless, the fallout from the banking turmoil will likely result in tighter lending standards which will impact mortgage and credit availability.”

Hannah Jones, economic data analyst at

Hannah Jones, economic data analyst at

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“Incoming economic data will determine mortgage rate movement in April. The Fed’s acknowledgement of a possible easing in contractionary policy, coupled with the banking sector’s potential role in bringing down inflation via tighter lending standards, instilled some investor optimism towards the end of March. As a result, mortgage rates softened.

Should upcoming data show inflation slowing according to expectation, this dip may hold. However, hotter-than-expected inflation could lead to another climb in rates in anticipation of more contractionary monetary policy. An unexpected ramp-up in either inflation or job creation may mean that the Fed has more to do, resulting in further rate increases.”

Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“Mortgage rates will likely zig-zag over the next month, but within a narrow range. The irony of the latest bank failures is that heightened investor uncertainty pushed investors to buy more Treasury bonds, resulting in declining yields on the 10-year Treasury and a decrease in mortgage rates, a banking-bust benefit to the housing market.

If this uncertainty persists or worsens, we may see downward pressure on mortgage rates. However, if the dust settles in the banking industry and inflation data comes in hotter than expected, there may be upward pressure on mortgage rates. All factors point to ongoing mortgage rate volatility, but it’s unlikely that we will see a big drop in mortgage rates until inflation makes significant progress towards the Fed’s target, banking concerns intensify, or there’s a decline in economic activity.”

Rick Sharga, president and CEO at CJ Patrick Company

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“Unless we get an unexpected surprise from the upside of inflation, it seems likely that mortgage rates will be in a holding pattern in April. There’s definitely room for rates to come down, since the spread between yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury and 30-year mortgage rates is a full point higher than usual; but there’s still too much volatility and perceived risk in the financial markets to predict a return to a normal spread yet.

The Fed softened its stance ever so slightly in its March statements, hinting at a less aggressive approach to rate hikes going forward. If it takes this approach, mortgage rates should stay relatively flat, and begin to slowly go down over the rest of the year. Banking industry turmoil is less likely to cause mortgage rates to move significantly and more likely to result in tighter credit, making it more difficult for all but the most highly qualified borrowers to get a loan.”

Mortgage interest rates forecast next 90 days

As inflation ran rampant in 2022, the Federal Reserve took action to bring it down and that led to big interest rate growth. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage more than doubled within the course of the year.

As inflation gradually cools, the size of the Fed’s rate hikes are coming down. Additionally, the likelihood of a recession has many experts believing mortgage interest rates will move within a tighter range compared to the spikes we saw in early 2022.

Of course, rates could rise on any given week or if another global event causes widespread uncertainty in the economy.

Mortgage rate predictions for early 2023

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.42% as of March 23, according to Freddie Mac. Three of the six major housing authorities we looked at projected 2023’s first quarter average to finish above that.

Fannie Mae and Wells Fargo sit at the low end of the group, predicting the average 30-year fixed interest rate to settle at 6.1% and 6.3%, respectively, for Q1. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors and National Association of Home Builders had the highest forecasts of 6.7% and 7.16%.

Housing Authority30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast (Q1 2023)
Mortgage Bankers Association6.10%
Wells Fargo6.20%
National Association of Realtors6.30%
Freddie Mac6.40%
Fannie Mae6.60%
National Association of Home Builders6.68%
Average Prediction6.38%

Mortgage rates declined following five consecutive weeks of gains, as two bank collapses stirred uncertainty in the financial sector.

The 30-year fixed rate dropped from 6.6% on March 16 to 6.42% on March 23. The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate also fell, going from 5.9% to 5.68%.

MonthAverage 30-Year Fixed Rate
February 20223.76%
March 20224.17%
April 20224.98%
May 20225.23%
June 20225.52%
July 20225.41%
August 20225.22%
September 20226.11%
October 20226.90%
November 20226.81%
December 20226.36%
January 20236.27%
February 20236.26%

Source: Freddie Mac

Mortgage rates moved on from the record-low territory seen in 2020 and 2021 and hit a 14-year high in 2022. However, they followed a downward trajectory in December and are still below average from a historical perspective.

Dating back to April 1971, the fixed 30-year interest rate averaged around 7.8%, according to Freddie Mac. So if you haven’t locked a rate yet, don’t lose too much sleep over it. You can still get a good deal, historically speaking — especially if you’re a borrower with strong credit.

Just make sure you shop around to find the best lender and lowest rate for your unique situation.

Many mortgage shoppers don’t realize there are different types of rates in today’s mortgage market. But this knowledge can help home buyers and refinancing households find the best value for their situation.

Following are 3-month mortgage rate trends for the most popular types of home loans: conventional, FHA, VA, and jumbo.

February 2023January 2023December 2022
Conforming Loan Rates6.68%6.16%6.52%
FHA Loan Rates6.49%6.12%6.42%
VA Loan Rates6.25%5.74%6.25%
Jumbo Loan Rates6.43%6.36%6.71%

Source: Black Knight Originations Market Monitor Report

Which mortgage loan is best?

The best mortgage for you depends on your financial situation and your goals.

For instance, if you want to buy a high-priced home and you have great credit, a jumbo loan is your best bet. Jumbo mortgages allow loan amounts above conforming loan limits, which max out at $ in most parts of the U.S.

On the other hand, if you’re a veteran or service member, a VA loan is almost always the right choice. VA loans are backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. They provide ultra-low rates and never charge private mortgage insurance (PMI). But you need an eligible service history to qualify.

Conforming loans and FHA loans (those backed by the Federal Housing Administration) are great low-down-payment options.

Conforming loans allow as little as 3% down with FICO scores starting at 620. FHA loans are even more lenient about credit; home buyers can often qualify with a score of 580 or higher, and a less-than-perfect credit history might not disqualify you.

Finally, consider a USDA loan if you want to buy or refinance real estate in a rural area. USDA loans have below-market rates — similar to VA — and reduced mortgage insurance costs. The catch? You need to live in a ‘rural’ area and have moderate or low income to be USDA-eligible.

Mortgage rate strategies for April 2023

Mortgage rates shot up rapidly to open 2022, driven by inflation and Fed hikes. The growth slowed as inflation declined and rates came down as the year ended.

At its March meeting, the central bank made a relatively small hike amid turmoil in the banking sector. However, the Fed also noted it will adjust its policies accordingly to keep inflation coming down.

Here are just a few strategies to keep in mind if you’re mortgage shopping in the coming months.

Wield your negotiating power

After historic gains, home prices started coming down during the back end of 2022 and some industry experts believe they’ll keep falling.

It’s especially good timing for borrowers because winter typically provides better home-buying conditions.

“Mortgage rates are now at their lowest level since September 2022, and about a percentage point below the peak mortgage rate last fall. As we enter the beginning of the spring buying season, lower mortgage rates and more homes on the market will help affordability for first-time homebuyers,” said Mike Fratantoni.

With buyer demand in a lull and lower competition, home listings are sitting for sale longer. February provides a great opportunity for borrowers to leverage their position in a cooling marketplace ahead of spring’s typical rush of buyers.

Shopping around could save you big bucks

Since interest rates can vary drastically from day to day and from lender to lender, failing to shop around likely leads to money lost.

Lenders charge different rates for different levels of credit scores. And while there are ways to negotiate a lower mortgage rate, the easiest is to get multiple quotes from multiple lenders and leverage them against each other.

“For potential home buyers, it’s important to get quotes from multiple lenders for a mortgage, as rates can vary dramatically, especially during such a volatile period,” said Odeta Kushi.

As the mortgage market slows due to lessened demand, lenders will be more eager for business. While missing out on the rock-bottom rates of 2020 and 2021 may sting, there’s always a way to use the market to your advantage.

How to shop for interest rates

Rate shopping doesn’t just mean looking at the lowest rates advertised online because those aren’t available to everyone. Typically, those are offered to borrowers with great credit who can put a down payment of 20% or more.

The rate lenders actually offer depends on:

  • Your credit score and credit history
  • Your personal finances
  • Your down payment (if buying a home)
  • Your home equity (if refinancing)
  • Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV)
  • Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI)

To figure out what rate a lender can offer you based on those factors, you have to fill out a loan application. Lenders will check your credit and verify your income and debts, then give you a ‘real’ rate quote based on your financial situation.

You should get three to five of these quotes at a minimum, then compare them to find the best offer. Look for the lowest rate, but also pay attention to your annual percentage rate (APR), estimated closing costs, and ‘discount points’ — extra fees charged upfront to lower your rate.

This might sound like a lot of work. But you can shop for mortgage rates in under a day if you put your mind to it. And shaving just a few basis points off your rate can save you thousands.

Mortgage interest rate FAQ

What are current mortgage rates?

Current mortgage rates are averaging 6.42% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan and 5.68% for a 15-year fixed-rate loan, according to Freddie Mac’s latest weekly rate survey. Your individual rate could be higher or lower than the average depending on your credit score, down payment, and the lender you choose to work with, among other factors.

Will mortgage rates go down next week?

Mortgage rates could decrease next week (April 3-7, 2023) if the mortgage market takes a cautious approach to a possible recession. However, rates could rise if lenders account for the Federal Reserve taking measures to counteract inflation or if a global event brings economic uncertainty.

Will mortgage interest rates go down in 2023?

If the historically high inflation of 2022 continues to dissipate and the economy falls into a recession, it’s likely mortgage rates will decrease in 2023. Although, it’s important to remember that interest rates are notoriously volatile and are driven by many factors, so they can rise during any given week.

Will mortgage interest rates go up in 2023?

Mortgage rates may continue to rise in 2023. High inflation, a strong housing market, and policy changes by the Federal Reserve have all pushed rates higher in 2022. However, if the U.S. does indeed enter a recession, mortgage rates could come down.

What is the lowest mortgage rate right now? 

Freddie Mac is now citing average 30-year rates in the 6 percent range. If you can find a rate in the 4s or 5s, you’re in a very good position. Remember that rates vary a lot by borrower. Those with perfect credit and large down payments may get below-average interest rates, while poor-credit borrowers and those with non-QM loans could see much higher rates. You’ll need to get pre-approved for a mortgage to know your exact rate.

Will there be a housing crash? 

For the most part, industry experts do not expect the housing market to crash in 2023. Yes, home prices are over-inflated. But many of the risk factors that led to the 2008 crash are not present in today’s market. Low inventory and massive buyer demand should keep the market propped up next year. Plus, mortgage lending practices are much safer than they used to be. That means there’s not a subprime mortgage crisis waiting in the wings.

What is the lowest mortgage rate ever?

At the time of this writing, the lowest 30-year mortgage rate ever was 2.65%. That’s according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the most widely used benchmark for current mortgage interest rates.

Should I lock my rate now or wait?

Locking your rate is a personal decision. You should do what’s right for your situation rather than trying to time the market. If you’re buying a home, the right time to lock a rate is after you’ve secured a purchase agreement and shopped for your best mortgage deal. If you’re refinancing, you should make sure you compare offers from at least three to five lenders before locking a rate. That said, rates are rising. So the sooner you can lock in today’s market, the better.

Is now a good time to refinance? 

That depends on your situation. It’s a good time to refinance if your current mortgage rate is above market rates and you could lower your monthly mortgage payment. It might also be good to refinance if you can switch from an adjustable-rate mortgage to a low fixed-rate mortgage; refinance to get rid of FHA mortgage insurance; or switch to a short-term 10- or 15-year mortgage to pay off your loan early.

Is it worth refinancing for 1 percent? 

It’s often worth refinancing for 1 percentage point, as this can yield significant savings on your mortgage payments and total interest payments. Just make sure your refinance savings justify your closing costs. You can use a mortgage calculator or speak with a loan officer to crunch the numbers.

How do I shop for mortgage rates? 

Start by choosing a list of three to five mortgage lenders that you’re interested in. Look for lenders with low advertised rates, great customer service scores, and recommendations from friends, family, or a real estate agent. Then get pre-approved by those lenders to see what rates and fees they can offer you. Compare your offers (Loan Estimates) to find the best overall deal for the loan type you want.

What are today’s mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are rising, but borrowers can almost always find a better deal by shopping around. Connect with a mortgage lender to find out exactly what rate you qualify for.

1Today's mortgage rates are based on a daily survey of select lending partners of The Mortgage Reports. Interest rates shown here assume a credit score of 740. See our full loan assumptions here.

Selected sources:

Paul Centopani
Authored By: Paul Centopani

The Mortgage Reports Editor

Paul Centopani is a writer and editor who started covering the lending and housing markets in 2018. Previous to joining The Mortgage Reports, he was a reporter for National Mortgage News. Paul grew up in Connecticut, graduated from Binghamton University and now lives in Chicago after a decade in New York and the D.C. area.