Mortgage Rates Flat, Inflation Higher for Essentials | Today, January 13, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates held their ground once again this morning, maintaining averages around annual lows.

Today’s market data brings mixed pressures, likely keeping interest rate movements small in the near-term. Meanwhile, today’s Consumer Price Index release showed the inflation rate flattened in December, but revealed higher growth in some of the essential subcategories.

With rates hovering at 15-month lows, see if it makes sense to refinance or tap into your home equity. For hopeful home buyers, see what advice experts have for 2026 and if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more lenient loan types.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.179%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.522%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.519%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com

“I expect mortgage rates to be relatively stable. They’ve hovered roughly around 6.25% since mid-September, and that’s largely where I expect them to remain in both the near-term and medium-term.”

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.169% from 4.191%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes mostly grew this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they often sell bonds, pushing those prices down and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices increased to $61.28 from $58.78 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices increased to $4,639 from $4,619 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 59 from 53 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Three economic reports come out today and two Federal Reserve executives will talk.

The Consumer Price Index showed a 2.7% annualized inflation rate in December and a 0.3% monthly gain — both flat from November — according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics*. The overall yearly average fell to 2.6% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024.

*In August 2025, President Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner following a weak jobs report.

Digging into December’s sub-indexes revealed faster annual price growth for the life-essential categories of food (3.1%), shelter (3.2%), and medical care (3.5%).

“Although inflation readings remain unpredictable and erratic, it is crucial to recognize that material and component costs for construction and home repair services continue to rise. This persistent inflation makes it difficult for both existing and new homeowners to achieve improved affordability,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality.

“The consumer sector continues to tread water. Sentiment remains significantly lower than last year, as American families are extremely concerned about their household financial outlook. The NY Fed recently reported that a record number of families feel job insecure and doubt they will find work if they lose their jobs. And for good reason. U.S. businesses are in a hiring slump as trade and economic uncertainties endure due to ongoing tariffs and geopolitical risks.”

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to a score of 99.5 in December from 99 in November.

“2025 ended with a further increase in small business optimism. While Main Street business owners remain concerned about taxes, they anticipate favorable economic conditions in 2026 due to waning cost pressures, easing labor challenges, and an increase in capital investments,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist at the NFIB.

New home sales totaled a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 737,000 in October, down from 738,000 in September but above 621,000 the year prior, according to the Census Bureau*. The estimated new-home inventory reached 488,000 for-sale listings, flat month-over-month and up from 480,000 year-over-year. The median sales price hit $392,300. That fell from $405,800 in September and $426,300 in October 2024.

The monthly U.S. budget deficit for December comes out at 2pm ET. The median forecast expects an expansion to -$150 billion from -$87 billion in November.

Lastly for the Fed, St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks at 10am ET and Richmond President Tom Barkin goes on 4pm.

Commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers can provide foresight into the FOMC’s economic assessment and policy outlook, which investors can base their decisions around.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s January 8 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.16%, rising one basis point (0.01%) from the previous week. But note that Freddie’s data represents a broad average and is best used as a barometer of the market and trend tracker. Individual rates will vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for 2026.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on December 10 and the MBA updated theirs on December 12.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ