Mortgage Rates Drop Back Down | Today, February 4, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

It’s been an up-and-down week thus far, as mortgage rates reversed yesterday’s growth and fell this morning.

Today’s mix of economic indicators provide optimism for borrowers and add downward pressure on interest rates in the short-term.

Overall, rates sit at attractive levels compared to the last few years. See if it makes sense to refinance or tap into your home equity. For hopeful home buyers, see what advice experts have for 2026 and if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more lenient loan types.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached %.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to %.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged %.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Hector Amendola, president at Panorama Mortgage Group

“There are early signs the housing market is stabilizing. Even modest declines in rates are helping restore buyer confidence, and existing home sales are slowly improving.”

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.278% from 4.291%. (Good for mortgage rates.) Mortgage rates typically follow these Treasury bond yields. While the increase is modest, the yield remains within its 52-week range of 3.864% to 4.664%, indicating continued bond market volatility.
• Major stock indexes had more growth than loss this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) Investors buying shares often sell bonds, pushing prices down and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may occur when indexes are lower, though this relationship is imperfect.
• Oil prices increased to $63.39 from $62.87 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices influence inflation and economic activity. The sharp 4.36% decline suggests easing inflationary pressures, potentially supporting lower rates.
• Gold prices increased to $5,023.60 from $4,941.70 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Rising gold prices often signal economic concerns, which can benefit mortgage rates. However, gold remains well below its 52-week high of $5,626.80.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 41 from 51 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down and rates up, while “fearful” ones do the opposite. Lower readings are generally better.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

The partial government shutdown delayed yesterday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and will also delay Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims, and Friday’s U.S. Employment Report. These three data sets serve as major indicators for the labor market, and economy overall.

However, ADP released its National Employment Report for January and it showed 22,000 new jobs were open in the month, down from 37,000 in December and below the forecasted 45,000.

“Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024. While we’ve seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.

Mortgage rates are navigating a landscape shaped by the Federal Reserve’s recent stance, its likely incoming chairman, and broader economic signals. After holding its benchmark rate steady at its January meeting, the Fed upgraded its economic assessment from “moderate” to “solid” while acknowledging inflation remains “somewhat elevated.” This positioning suggests the central bank sees no immediate need for rate adjustments, with its next meeting not scheduled until March 17-18.

The housing market itself is sending mixed signals that could influence rate direction. Mortgage applications fell 8.5% last week, with refinance activity dropping 16%, demonstrating borrower sensitivity to even modest rate changes. This cooling demand typically prompts lenders to lower rates to attract business, though inflation concerns could counteract that pressure.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s January 29 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.10%, rising one basis point (0.01%) from the previous week. Rates remain near three-year lows, with purchase and refinance applications rising year-over-year. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for 2026.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on January 13 and the MBA updated theirs on January 21.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ