Mortgage Rates Ease Slightly | Today, October 2, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

The 10-year Treasury yield came in at 5.184% today, down 5.5 basis points from 5.239%, a meaningful move that points to a modest easing bias for mortgage shoppers even with Freddie Mac’s 30-year average still near 7.28%. Falling oil added to the calmer tone, with WTI crude down $3.40 to $89.62, while risk appetite stayed cautious as the Fear & Greed Index slipped to 27.2, stocks posted only tiny gains, and gold edged up to $4,210.6.

The next swing in rate quotes could come from Sep. 29 Consumer Confidence at 10:00 a.m. ET, followed by remarks from Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, and Austan Goolsbee. That calendar lands as Fed signals remain mixed, with one headline citing Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan calling for “50 bps or more” in hikes while another said a different Fed official suggested the next increase can wait, so borrowers may want to lock quickly if lenders pass through today’s bond-market improvement.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.465%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 6.768%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 6.816%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Any specific rate figures above reflect this expert’s personal opinion and forecast. They are illustrative only, are not an offer or commitment to lend, and are not an advertised rate. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 5.184% from 5.239% (Good for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes rose this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices decreased to $89.62 from $93.02 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices increased to $4,210.6 from $4,204.50 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 27.2 from 28.2 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Fear” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week starts with a modest easing signal for mortgage shoppers. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage pricing, fell to 5.184% from 5.239%, a 5.5-basis-point drop, according to Yahoo Finance. That is a meaningful move for one day, especially with mortgage rates still hovering near recent highs. Freddie Mac’s latest 30-year fixed average was 7.28%, per FRED, while recent headlines have pointed to rates sitting close to their highest levels in three years.

Monday’s calendar is light but still worth watching for Fed tone. Gov. Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak at 8:15 a.m. ET, followed by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin at 1:30 p.m. ET, according to Econoday. Markets have been getting mixed signals from Fed officials, with recent coverage split between calls for “50 bps or more” in hikes and suggestions that the next increase can wait. For mortgage rates, any pushback against more tightening could help lenders pass through some of the Treasury rally.

Tuesday brings the week’s main scheduled data point: Consumer Confidence at 10:00 a.m. ET. That report can move rates because it gives markets a read on household demand and whether consumers still feel strong enough to keep spending, which can feed inflation pressure. The same day also features more Fed commentary: Bowman at 11:00 a.m. ET, Michael Barr at 12:40 p.m. ET and Austan Goolsbee at 1:00 p.m. ET. If confidence comes in softer or Fed speakers lean less aggressive, that would fit the lower-yield move seen today.

Outside the calendar, other market gauges were mostly rate-friendly. WTI crude oil fell to $89.62 per barrel from $93.02, a $3.40 drop that could ease some inflation worries. Stocks were little changed, with the Dow up 0.04%, the S&P 500 up 0.19% and the Nasdaq up 0.04%, while CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slipped to 27.2 from 28.2, staying in fear territory. Gold rose to $4,210.6 an ounce from $4,204.5. Put together, the setup points to a slightly better opening bias for mortgage rates today, though lenders do not always match Treasury moves one for one.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s October 2 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 7.28%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.