Mortgage Rates All Rise, GDP Exceeds Expectations | Today, September 25, 2025

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates all increased this morning, but remain in the low band they descended to over the last few weeks.

Today’s batch of economic indicators, led by a third-straight day of widening Treasury yields, likely add upward pressure on interest rates in the short-term.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.33%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.66%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.52%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.188% from 4.143%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes all dropped today. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they often sell bonds, pushing those prices down and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices decreased to $64.28 from $64.41 a barrel. (Neutral (but moving in a good direction) for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices decreased to $3,758 from $3,796 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 53 from 59 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

In a big day, five economic reports come out and a bevy Federal Reserve executives are speaking.

The latest initial jobless claims fell to 218,000 for the seven days ending Sept. 20, from 232,000 the week prior and the forecasted 235,000. The third estimate of the second quarter’s gross domestic product (GDP)* showed an increase of 3.8%, up from the last reading of 3.3% and a 0.6% decline in the first quarter.

The Advance Economic Indicators Report* showed the international trade deficit narrowed to $85.5 billion in August from $102.8 billion in July. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories dipped by $1.9 billion and retail inventories gained $400 million.

Durable goods orders* grew 2.9% in August to $312.1 billion following July’s 2.7% decrease to $303.2 billion. Existing home sales faded 0.2% month-over-month in August.

“Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. “However, mortgage rates are declining and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months.”

For the Fed, Governor Stephen Miran made a TV appearance this morning. Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke in Grand Rapids, Mich. New York President John Williams gave the opening remarks at the Fourth Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference.

Kansas City President Jeff Schmid covered supervision and regulation and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman unveiled news on an amended banking rule.

This afternoon, Governor Michael Barr talks at 1pm ET, Dallas President Lorie Logan at 1:40pm, and San Francisco President Mary Daly at 3:30pm. Investors will take note of what higher-ups at the central bank say and if they tip their hands on potential policy changes.

*It should be noted that in August, President Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner following a weak jobs report.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s September 25 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.30%, rising four basis points (0.04%) from the previous week. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures. Still, they’re a good way to track trends.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the rest of 2025 and 2026.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on September 11 and the MBA updated theirs on September 19.

In its Mortgage Market Outlook published Jan. 24, Freddie Mac wrote, “our outlook for the U.S. economy in 2025 is positive, though we expect the pace of growth to moderate. In late 2024, the U.S. labor market started showing signs of cooling and we expect that to persist in 2025. Modestly higher unemployment and slower job gains will reduce some of the pressures on inflation.”

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ