Today’s mortgage rates
The 10-year Treasury yield traded at 5.096% in early action, down from Tuesday’s close of 5.117% but still 1.5 basis points (0.015 percentage points) above the 5.081% in our previous dispatch, per CNBC. On balance that is a mixed read, below yesterday’s session close but a touch above the level in our last report, closer to flat than to clear downward pressure on mortgage pricing. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, published October 15, held the 30-year weekly average at 7.40% and nudged the 15-year two basis points lower to 6.71%. Three distinct measures matter here: a weekly survey average published Thursdays, a bond-market yield that moves intraday, and today’s lender quotes.
Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here| Program | Mortgage Rate | APR* | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conventional 30-year fixed | |||
| Conventional 30-year fixed | 7.367% | 7.44% | -0.09 |
| Conventional 20-year fixed | |||
| Conventional 20-year fixed | 7.224% | 7.338% | -0.08 |
| Conventional 15-year fixed | |||
| Conventional 15-year fixed | 6.749% | 6.864% | -0.08 |
| Conventional 10-year fixed | |||
| Conventional 10-year fixed | 6.695% | 6.815% | -0.06 |
| 30-year fixed FHA | |||
| 30-year fixed FHA | 7.212% | 7.261% | -0.02 |
| 30-year fixed VA | |||
| 30-year fixed VA | 7.17% | 7.233% | Unchanged |
| 5/1 ARM Conventional | |||
| 5/1 ARM Conventional | 6.333% | 6.858% | +0.39 |
| Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here. | |||
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
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30-year fixed rate mortgage
At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.367%.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on January 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on October 9, 1981, according to Freddie Mac (survey data since 1971).
A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.
15-year fixed rate mortgage
Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 6.749%.
The average 15-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.10% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on December 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac (survey data since 1991).
The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.
[click_table instance_v2="5caf80fdd8e3f21f6b2eee7e" hideWhen="br_swap"]5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage
This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 6.333%.
Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.
What experts are expecting
Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS
“I expect mortgage rates to increase from where they are now,”
This reflects the expert’s personal opinion and outlook. It is not an offer or commitment to lend. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published, with figures as of 8:31 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Each figure compares to the level in our previous report, published October 20, 2026, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.
- The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 5.096% from 5.081% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
- Major stock indexes were mixed in the last session: Dow gained 1.02%, S&P 500 gained 0.28%, Nasdaq fell 0.02%. (Mixed for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
- Oil prices decreased to $98.25 from $106.58 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
- Gold prices increased to $4,155.00 from $4,132.70 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
- CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 28.9 from 22.0 out of 100, in “fear” territory. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Fear” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices and easing yields; “greed” suggests the opposite.
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. That relationship is looser now.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong or weak before they say much about the day’s lender pricing. We still make a daily call, and it is a judgment about the morning’s markets, not a forecast to bank on.
Our call for today: The 10-year Treasury yield is 2.1 basis points below Tuesday's close at 5.096%, mild downward pressure on mortgage pricing. Our read is that lender quotes could drift slightly lower today, though a move that small often leaves them flat.
Be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start hereWhat’s driving mortgage rates today?
This week
The week’s lineup is heavy on housing and jobs data, with no scheduled Federal Reserve speakers. Thursday’s Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET and Friday’s Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET are both high-importance releases on Econoday’s calendar. A reading well off expectations in either can nudge Treasury yields in either direction, with mortgage pricing following.
Earlier this week, Monday’s Housing Market Index at 10:00 AM ET, Tuesday’s Housing Starts and Permits at 8:30 AM ET, and Tuesday’s Pending Home Sales Index at 10:00 AM ET have come and gone. MBA Mortgage Applications were on today’s calendar at 7:00 AM ET. The EIA Petroleum Status Report is still ahead at 10:30 AM ET, with only an indirect read-through to mortgage pricing.
For context, stocks closed Tuesday’s session mixed on CNBC’s tape, with the Dow up 1.02%, the S&P 500 up 0.28%, and the Nasdaq down 0.02%. WTI crude eased to $98.25 a barrel from $106.58 in our last report, while gold rose to $4,155.00 an ounce. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index moved to 28.9 from 22.0 in our last report, still inside fear territory. The Fed’s target range sits at 3.75% to 4.00% following the FOMC’s September 16 increase.
Recent trends
Freddie Mac’s October 15, 2026 Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 7.40%, unchanged from the previous week. The 15-year average was 6.71%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year. The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie Mae updated its forecast on September 11 and MBA updated its forecast on September 16.
| Forecaster | Q3/26 | Q4/26 | Q1/27 | Q2/27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| MBA | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual, and both groups revise them often.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for youMortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
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Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.
