Mortgage Rates Rise Further | Today, May 15, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates inched down to 6.36% this week, but borrowers waiting for a real drop need the bond market to crack first. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.55%, pushed higher by oil prices surging past $104 a barrel, which keeps inflation expectations sticky and gives the Fed little reason to act. Until yields break lower in a lasting way, rates are likely to hover right where they are.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.455%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.804%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.637%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.552% from 4.443% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Mixed for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $104.27 from $99.58 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $4,555.4 from $4,709.70 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 65.3 from 64.4 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greed” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.552% this week from 4.443%, and mortgage rates barely budged. Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey clocked the 30-year fixed at 6.36%, down just a basis point from the week before. House hunters waiting for a real break in rates are still waiting.

That’s the frustration right now. Bond yields keep ticking back up, oil is running hot at $104.27 a barrel, and the bond market isn’t giving borrowers the relief they need. Until Treasury yields find a sustained downward trajectory, mortgage rates are going to hover in this range. The question isn’t if rates will come down. It’s when the bond market cooperates.

One thing borrowers can control: their rate quote. Lenders price differently, and there’s more room to negotiate than most people think, especially with purchase volume still sluggish. Shopping multiple lenders and pushing back on pricing is one of the few levers available right now.

Six economic reports come out next week alongside seven Federal Reserve speeches.

Monday kicks things off with Existing Home Sales at 10am ET. Tuesday is the big day. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index drops at 6am ET, followed by the Consumer Price Index at 8:30am ET. CPI is the one to watch. Any sign that inflation is cooling faster than expected could give bonds a reason to rally. New York Fed President John Williams speaks early at 3:15am ET, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee goes on at 1pm ET.

Wednesday brings MBA Mortgage Applications at 7am ET, the Producer Price Index at 8:30am ET, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30am ET. Three Fed officials also speak: Boston President Susan Collins at 11:30am ET, Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari at 1:15pm ET, and Dallas President Lorie Logan at 7pm ET.

Thursday is packed. Initial jobless claims and retail sales both hit at 8:30am ET. Then it’s a parade of Fed voices: Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid at 10:15am ET, Cleveland President Beth Hammack and Governor Michelle Bowman at 1pm ET, Williams again at 5:45pm ET, and Governor Michael Barr at 7pm ET. The Fed balance sheet update posts at 4:30pm ET.

Between CPI, PPI, retail sales, and that many Fed officials on the mic, there’s no shortage of potential market movers. Tuesday morning’s inflation print will set the tone for the rest of the week.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s May 15 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.36%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.