Mortgage Rates Inch Up | Today, February 18, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates edged up modestly this morning for the second straight day.

Today’s blend of economic signals—including rising Treasury yields, geopolitical tensions affecting commodity markets, and mixed labor data—suggests rates may hold in their current range near-term.

With rates hovering near three-year lows, see if it makes sense to refinance or tap into your home equity. For hopeful home buyers, see what advice experts have for 2026 and if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more lenient loan types.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached %.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to %.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged %.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Dan Cooper, capital markets and servicing EVP at Cornerstone Home Lending

“Mortgage rates are expected to remain largely unchanged throughout February, as persistently higher-than-desired inflation continues to be offset by a slowly weakening — yet still resilient — labor market.”

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. These movements are based on the previous day’s settlement prices.

The numbers are:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.047 from 4.052%. (Good for mortgage rates.) Mortgage rates typically follow these Treasury bond yields. While unchanged from Friday’s close, the yield is below the 52-week high of 4.632%, suggesting a favorable environment for mortgage rates.
• Major stock indexes were higher this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they often sell bonds, pushing prices down and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower, though this relationship is imperfect.
• Oil prices increased to $63.90 from $62.33 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices influence inflation and economic activity. The rise comes amid U.S.-Iran tensions, though oil remains near the lower end of its 52-week range.
• Gold prices increased to $4,980.20 from $4,905.90 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. It has climbed significantly over the past year but remains below its recent peak.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 38 from 37 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down and rates up, while “fearful” ones do the opposite. The index remains in “fear” territory, which typically supports lower rates.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Mortgage rates this week face pressure from several competing forces. Treasury yields have been trending lower, with the 10-year note hovering near recent lows, which typically supports more favorable mortgage pricing. However, crude oil has been climbing on heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, while gold has pushed higher as investors seek safety amid geopolitical uncertainty.

The labor market remains a key focus for rate watchers. Recent employment data showed surprising strength, with January adding more jobs than expected and unemployment ticking down to 4.3%. This resilience has led many analysts to expect the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its March meeting rather than resume cuts.

Inflation data continues to show modest improvement, but remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The central bank appears content to pause and assess the impact of previous rate cuts before making additional moves. Meanwhile, the administration’s proposed housing affordability initiatives—including potential liquidity injections into mortgage-backed securities—could provide some downward pressure on rates if implemented.

Most experts anticipate mortgage rates will remain relatively stable in the low-6% range this week. Without major economic surprises or policy announcements, rates should hold near current levels with only modest day-to-day fluctuations.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s February 12 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.09%, dropping two basis points (0.02%) from the previous week. Rates remain near three-year lows, with purchase and refinance applications rising year-over-year. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for 2026.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on January 13 and the MBA updated theirs on January 21.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ