Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Amid Inflation Concerns | Today, May 10, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Inflation is the main risk for mortgage borrowers today. Headlines tied to the Fed’s inflation outlook said April and quarterly forecasts showed prices rising as the Iran war pushed up fuel costs, and another report said the Fed’s May inflation forecast “got uglier” for Wall Street. That warning contrasts with a calmer real-time market backdrop, but it still points to the force most likely to keep mortgage rates elevated or nudge them higher.

For now, the live gauges that often anchor mortgage pricing were flat: the 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.36%, unchanged from 4.36%, while WTI crude came in at $94.68 and gold came in at $4,723.7, both unchanged. Stocks were firmer, with the Dow up 0.02%, the S&P 500 up 0.84% and the Nasdaq up 1.71%, while CNN’s Fear & Greed Index held at 66.9 in greed. Freddie Mac’s benchmark 30-year fixed rate came in at 6.37%, and recent coverage described mortgage and refinance rates as a mixed bag last week rather than a one-way move. The next scheduled rate catalysts include Factory Orders and a speech from John Williams on May 4, followed by New Home Sales, the ISM Services Index and remarks from Michelle Bowman on May 5, so borrowers should be ready for fresh volatility in the next few sessions.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.446%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.81%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.68%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes unchanged to 4.36% from 4.36% (Neutral for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes rose this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices unchanged to $94.68 from $94.68 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices unchanged to $4,723.7 from $4,723.70 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index unchanged to 66.9 from 66.9 out of 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “Greed” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week starts with a split signal for mortgage shoppers. A prominent inflation warning is getting attention today — “The Fed’s inflation tracker flashes a warning: April and quarterly forecasts show prices rising as Iran War spikes the price of fuel — and everything” — but the market gauges that often steer mortgage pricing were mostly steady early. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage rates, was flat at 4.36%, according to yfinance. WTI crude oil held at $94.68 a barrel, while gold was unchanged at $4723.7 an ounce. Stocks were stronger, with the Dow up 0.02%, the S&P 500 up 0.84% and the Nasdaq up 1.71%. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index was unchanged at 66.9, still in “greed” territory.

Monday is light but not empty. Factory Orders are due May 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET, and that report can move rates if business demand comes in much hotter or colder than expected. Stronger orders can point to firmer economic activity and keep pressure on yields. Later, New York Fed President John Williams speaks at 12:50 p.m. ET. Fed speeches do not always move mortgage rates on their own, but any fresh comments on inflation or the rate path could matter more than usual given today’s price-pressure headlines.

Tuesday is the busier day. At 10:00 a.m. ET, markets get New Home Sales and the ISM Services Index, and Gov. Michelle Bowman is also scheduled to speak at 10:00 a.m. ET. New Home Sales matters because housing demand can affect the rate outlook at the margin, but ISM Services is usually the bigger market mover since the services sector makes up most of the economy and can carry inflation signals. If the index shows sticky prices or stronger-than-expected activity, Treasury yields could rise and mortgage rates could follow. If it cools, borrowers could get some relief.

For now, the weekly setup looks like this: inflation fears are elevated, but the usual day-to-day market markers are not flashing fresh stress yet. Freddie Mac’s latest 30-year Primary Mortgage Market Survey stood at 6.37%, and recent consumer-rate headlines have been mixed, with some reports saying mortgage rates rose into May 10 while others pointed to uneven movement last week. That leaves borrowers watching whether this week’s data confirms the inflation warning — or whether steady bond trading keeps mortgage rates from making a sharper move.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s May 10 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.37%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.