Mortgage Rates Climb, Unemployment at 4-Year High | Today, December 16, 2025

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates grew again from yesterday but this morning’s tanking stock markets and dragging employment report could reverse that in short-order.

Today’s mix of economic indicators look like they could put downward pressure on interest rates in next few days.

Although mortgage rates regressed from their recent annual lows, see if it still makes sense to refinance or tap into your home equity. For hopeful buyers, negotiating can get your rate down and qualifying for financial assistance programs or more lenient loan types can lower your barrier to entry.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.34%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.72%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.66%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American

“Uncertainty ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting... could result in short-term volatility in mortgage rates as more data comes in and policymakers wait for a clearer read on the economy.”

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.167% from 4.164%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes all plummeted this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they often sell bonds, pushing those prices down and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices decreased to $55.20 from $56.81 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices decreased to $4,349 from $4,354 an ounce. (Neutral (but moving in a bad direction) for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 48 from 43 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Four economic reports come out today while one Federal Reserve executive speaks.

The U.S. Employment Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics* showed 64,000 jobs added in November alongside a four-year-high 4.6% unemployment rate, after losing 108,000 jobs in October. It also revealed downwardly revised 26,000 fewer jobs in August and 11,000 fewer in September for a net decline of 81,000 jobs in the last four months.

*In August 2025, President Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner following a weak jobs report.

“The key phrase from the BLS is that payroll employment ‘has shown little net change since April.’ The most significant news from this report was the increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September, noting that there will not be an estimate for October,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankerrs Association. “The number of unemployed individuals increased from 7.6 million in September to 7.8 million in November. Beyond this, underemployment spiked. The U6 jumped from 8.0 million in September to 8.7 million in November.”

Retail sales remained essentially flat in October, inching up to $732.6 billion from $732.4 billion in September, according to the Census Bureau*.

S&P released its “flash” Purchasing Managers’ Index for December, showing a six-month low in the services sector (down to 52.9 from 54.1 in November) and a five-month low in manufacturing (51.8 from 52.2).

“The flash PMI data for December suggest that the recent economic growth spurt is losing momentum.

“The signs of weakness are also broad-based, with a near-stalling of inflows of work into the vast services economy accompanied by the first fall in factory orders for a year. With new sales growth waning especially sharply in the lead up to the holiday season, economic activity may soften further as we head into 2026,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P.

“While manufacturers continue to report higher output, lower sales point to unsustainable production levels which will need to be lowered unless demand revives in the new year. Service providers reported one of the slowest months for sales growth since 2023. Firms have also lost some confidence in the outlook and have restricted their hiring in December in accordance with the more challenging business environment. Higher prices are again being widely blamed on tariffs, with an initial impact on manufacturing now increasingly spilling over to services to broaden the affordability problem.”

Lastly, business inventories grew to $2.67 trillion in September from $2.664 trillion in August, according to the Census Bureau*.

For the Fed, Chicago President Austan Goolsbee will make a TV appearance at 6pm ET. Commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers can provide foresight into the FOMC’s economic assessment and policy outlook, which investors can base their decisions around.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s December 11 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.22%, rising three basis points (0.03%) from the previous week. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures. Still, they’re a good way to track trends.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the rest of 2025 and 2026.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on November 13 and the MBA updated theirs on November 18.

In its Mortgage Market Outlook published Jan. 24, Freddie Mac wrote, “our outlook for the U.S. economy in 2025 is positive, though we expect the pace of growth to moderate. In late 2024, the U.S. labor market started showing signs of cooling and we expect that to persist in 2025. Modestly higher unemployment and slower job gains will reduce some of the pressures on inflation.”

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ