Mortgage Rates Face Upward Pressure | Today, August 17, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rate pressure is higher to start the day after the 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.708%, up 0.067 percentage points from 4.641% yesterday, or 6.7 basis points. Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year benchmark most recently came in at 6.67%. That Treasury move is meaningful enough to point to renewed upward pressure on consumer mortgage rates today.

The move higher in yields didn’t come with a broad risk-on push: the Dow fell 0.20%, the S&P 500 fell 0.17%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%, while gold rose $24.6 to $4,454.6 an ounce. WTI crude also climbed to $82.25 per barrel, and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index came in at 65.0, down from 66.7. That mixed backdrop suggests rates are being pushed by bond-market selling more than by a clean swing into investor optimism.

The next big tests are close. Housing Starts and Permits are due Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, MBA mortgage applications arrive Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. ET, FOMC minutes land Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET, and jobless claims follow Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. For borrowers, that means today’s upward pressure could shift quickly, so locking strategy may depend on how this week’s housing and Fed signals come in.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.694%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 6.065%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 6.342%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Any specific rate figures above reflect this expert’s personal opinion and forecast. They are illustrative only, are not an offer or commitment to lend, and are not an advertised rate. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.708% from 4.641% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes dropped this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $82.25 from $81.97 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices increased to $4,454.6 from $4,430.00 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 65.0 from 66.7 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greed” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week starts with a clear warning for mortgage shoppers: the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.708% Monday, up from 4.641% Friday, a 6.7-basis-point move that usually points to fresh upward pressure on mortgage rates. Other market signals were mixed but not especially friendly. WTI crude oil rose to $82.25 per barrel from $81.97, gold climbed to $4,454.6 from $4,430.0, and stocks slipped, with the Dow down 0.20%, the S&P 500 down 0.17% and the Nasdaq down 0.28%. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index eased to 65.0 from 66.7, still in greed territory. Freddie Mac’s latest 30-year average stands at 6.67%.

Tuesday brings the first major rate test of the week. Housing Starts and Permits are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, and that report matters because it gives bond traders a fresh read on construction activity and housing demand. A hotter-than-expected number could reinforce the idea that the economy is still running too strong for rates to fall much. E-Commerce Retail Sales follows at 10:00 a.m. ET. It is a lower-tier release, but anything that hints at stronger consumer spending can add to pressure on yields.

Wednesday is the busiest day. MBA Mortgage Applications hits at 7:00 a.m. ET and offers a direct read on how borrowers are responding to current rate levels, especially on purchase and refinance demand. At 10:30 a.m. ET, the EIA Petroleum Status Report could move energy prices, which matters because rising oil can feed inflation worries. The main event comes at 2:00 p.m. ET with the FOMC Minutes. Markets will be looking for any sign of how firmly Fed officials still lean toward keeping policy tight, especially after recent headlines about cooling rate-hike expectations and “Fed silence.”

Thursday closes the week’s main calendar with Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. ET. Claims remain one of the fastest reads on labor-market conditions, and a lower-than-expected number would support the case that the economy is holding up, which can keep Treasury yields elevated. For borrowers, the setup is simple: if the 10-year yield holds near these higher levels, mortgage rates may follow. But this week’s housing data, Fed minutes and labor data could still shift the tone quickly in either direction.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s August 17 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.67%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.