Mortgage Rates Edge Higher | Today, July 16, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates are ticking higher this week, with the 30-year fixed averaging 6.49% according to Freddie Mac’s latest survey. Treasury yields dipped slightly overnight, but the broader trend has pushed borrowing costs up as investors digest a steady stream of economic data. Today brings jobless claims and retail sales reports, both due at 8:30 AM ET, followed by remarks from three Fed officials, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, whose comments could shape rate expectations heading into the next policy meeting.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.622%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 6.005%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 6.326%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Any specific rate figures above reflect this expert’s personal opinion and forecast. They are illustrative only, are not an offer or commitment to lend, and are not an advertised rate. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.581% from 4.602% (Good for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes rose this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $80.2 from $79.64 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $4,032.9 from $4,045.80 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 46.9 from 43.8 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Neutral” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Mortgage rates ticked up this week, with Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey clocking the 30-year fixed at 6.49%, up six basis points from the prior week.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates tend to follow, dipped slightly to 4.581% from 4.602%. Stocks posted modest gains across the board, with the Dow up 0.29%, the S&P 500 up 0.38%, and the NASDAQ climbing 0.62%. Oil rose to $80.2 a barrel while gold pulled back to $4,032.9. The CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 46.9, firmly in neutral territory.

It’s been a packed week for both economic data and Fed commentary.

Monday kicked things off with two Fed speeches: Governor Michelle Bowman at 5:25am ET and Governor Christopher Waller at 12:30pm ET. Tuesday brought the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 6am ET followed by the Consumer Price Index at 8:30am ET. The CPI print is always one borrowers should pay close attention to, since inflation data directly influences the Fed’s rate cut calculus. The afternoon was a parade of Fed officials: Michael Barr spoke twice (12:40pm and 12:55pm ET), Austan Goolsbee went on at 1pm ET, Lisa Cook at 1:30pm ET, and Bowman again at 2:55pm ET.

Wednesday delivered MBA mortgage application data at 7am ET, the Producer Price Index at 8:30am ET, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30am ET. New York Fed President John Williams spoke at 8:45am ET, Cook made a second appearance at 1pm ET, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem closed out the day at 6:30pm ET.

Today, initial jobless claims and retail sales both dropped at 8:30am ET. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at 12:30pm ET, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid goes on at 1:25pm ET, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson wraps the evening at 7pm ET. The Fed balance sheet update comes at 4:30pm ET.

Friday rounds out the week with housing starts and building permits at 8:30am ET and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading at 10am ET. The housing data in particular will give a read on whether builders are pulling back or pushing forward despite higher borrowing costs.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s July 16 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.49%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.