Mortgage Rates Edge Higher for Second Day | Today, March 4, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates edged higher for a second consecutive day, with the 30-year fixed rate climbing modestly from yesterday’s levels.

Today’s economic indicators present a mixed picture, likely sustaining upward pressure on interest rates in the near-term as inflation concerns persist and growth signals remain robust.

With rates at their most attractive levels since 2022, more borrowers find themselves ‘in the money’ for refinancing. See if it makes sense to refinance or tap into your home equity. For hopeful home buyers, check out what advice experts have for 2026 and if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more lenient loan types.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached %.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to %.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged %.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Rebekah Scott, director of investment real estate at Atlas Real Estate

“The most important thing consumers should understand is that we’re experiencing a rare window of opportunity. If you’ve been waiting for conditions to improve, they have. Not dramatically, but meaningfully.”

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. These movements are based on the previous day’s settlement prices.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.083% from 4.072%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields. While the increase is modest, yields remain well below their 52-week high of 4.632%, suggesting a relatively favorable environment for borrowers compared to recent peaks.
• Major stock indexes declined this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.83%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.94%, and the NASDAQ Composite declined 1.02%. When investors sell shares and move into bonds, those bond purchases push prices up and yields down, which can help lower mortgage rates.
• Oil prices decreased to $73.88 from $74.56 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates.*) Lower energy prices can ease inflationary pressure, which tends to support lower mortgage rates. The decline suggests reduced concerns about near-term inflation.
• Gold prices increased to $5,202.20 from $5,123.70 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates.*) The rise in gold typically signals investors seeking safe havens amid economic uncertainty, which often coincides with lower bond yields and mortgage rates.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 33 from 31 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) While still firmly in “Fear” territory, the slight uptick from the previous day suggests marginally less anxiety. “Fearful” investors typically favor bonds over stocks, which can help rates, so movement away from fear can have the opposite effect.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Mortgage rates are navigating a pivotal week as markets await critical inflation data and Federal Reserve signals that could reshape borrowing costs. The focus centers on Wednesday’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes and the Consumer Price Index report scheduled for March 11, both of which will provide clarity on the central bank’s rate-cut timeline.

Inflation readings take center stage, with Friday’s Core PCE report—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—expected to show a modest decline to 2.6% year-over-year. Any surprise to the upside could add pressure to rates, while softer numbers would support the case for lower borrowing costs. Weekly jobless claims and consumer sentiment data will also factor into the equation, offering additional insight into economic momentum.

Employment trends remain a key variable. Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls report, forecasting around 140,000 new jobs, will set the tone ahead of official employment figures. Weaker-than-expected job growth could reinforce expectations for Fed rate cuts, potentially easing mortgage rates.

Bond market dynamics add another layer of complexity. Treasury auctions scheduled throughout the week could influence mortgage-backed securities spreads, which currently sit tight at 1.45% over 10-year Treasuries. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to inject uncertainty into global markets, creating potential for safe-haven flows that could compress rates.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s February 26 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 5.98%, dropping three basis points (0.03%) from the previous week and reaching the lowest level since September 2022. Rates remain near three-year lows, with purchase and refinance applications rising year-over-year. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for 2026.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on February 12 and the MBA updated theirs on February 17.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ