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Posted 07/13/2017

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Mortgage Rates Today, July 13, Plus Lock Recommendations

mortgage rates today

What's Driving Mortgage Interest Rates

Mortgage rates today opened lower than yesterday's, but the break may be short-lived. While Janet Yellen sparked demand for Treasuries after implying that rate hikes may be fewer and smaller than previously thought, the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled exactly the opposite -- noting that it will be more aggressive about heading off inflation in the near future.

In response, Treasuries this morning are taking a hit, and most data support rising interest rates.

In US economic news, the Weekly Jobless Claims, expected to fall from last week’s 248,000 to 245,000, came in a little higher at 247,000. That's good for rates, but the report is not important enough to change rates with such a small variance from expectations.

Finally, the Producers Price Index (PPI), which measures activity at the manufacturing level, increased by .1 percent, when experts anticipated no change. That's slightly bad for mortgage rates.

Mortgage Rates Today

(As of 10:30 am EDT)

Program Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 yr Fixed 3.875 3.875 Unchanged
Conventional 15 yr Fixed 3.125 3.125 Unchanged
Conventional 5 yr ARM 3.250 3.735 Unchanged
30 year fixed FHA 3.375 4.336 -0.11%
15 year fixed FHA 2.875 3.778 +0.01%
5 year ARM FHA 3.000 4.106 -0.02%
30 year fixed VA 3.500 3.664 -0.11%
15 year fixed VA 3.125 3.428 +0.12%
5 year ARM VA 3.375 3.456 Unchanged

Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Today's Data

Today's indicators all point to increasing rates. Probably time to grab whatever bargain you can nail down this morning.

  • Major stock indexes are all up (bad for rates)
  • Gold is down $1 to $1,217 (bad, because gold rises when the economy softens. But this movement is pretty small)
  • The yield for ten-year Treasuries rose four basis points (4/100ths of one percent) to 2.36 percent (bad for mortgage rates).
  • CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed Index is up five more points to a neutral 53 (bad for rates, because it's moving in a "greedier" direction).

This Week

The latter part of the week brings plenty of reporting that could spike mortgage rates or cause them to fall sharply. Stay tuned

  • Friday – Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, which experts predict will rise .1 percent, and Consumer Sentiment, an important indicator of future consumer willingness to spend, expected to increase by .5 to 95.6. Larger increases are bad for rates, while less expansion would be good.
  • Friday – Retail Sales, expected to increase by .1 percent. A larger increase could cause rates to rise, while a drop might cause them to fall.

Rate Lock Recommendation

Mortgage rates are trending up, and there is no reason to believe that they will drop back in the near future.

I would probably lock if rates were in my strike zone and I was closing soon. However, your own goals and tolerance for risk may vary. This is only what I would do.

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • FLOAT if closing in 45 days
  • FLOAT if closing in 60 days

What Causes Rates To Rise And Fall?

Mortgage interest rates depend on a great deal on the expectations of investors. Good economic news tends to be bad for interest rates, because an active economy raises concerns about inflation. Inflation causes fixed-income investments like bonds to lose value, and that causes their yields (another way of saying interest rates) to increase.

For example, suppose that two years ago, you bought a $1,000 bond paying five percent interest ($50) each year. (This is called its “coupon rate.") That’s a pretty good rate today, so lots of investors want to buy it from you. You sell your $1,000 bond for $1,200.

When Rates Fall

The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest that you were getting. However, because he paid more for the bond, his interest rate is not five percent.

  • Your interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,000 = 5.0%
  • Your buyer’s interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,200 = 4.2%

The buyer gets an interest rate, or yield, of only 4.2 percent. And that’s why, when demand for bonds increases and bond prices go up, interest rates go down.

When Rates Rise

However, when the economy heats up, the potential for inflation makes bonds less appealing. With fewer people wanting to buy bonds, their prices decrease, and then interest rates go up.

Imagine that you have your $1,000 bond, but you can't sell it for $1,000, because unemployment has dropped and stock prices are soaring. You end up getting $700. The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest, but the yield looks like this:

  • $50 annual interest / $700 = 7.1% The buyer’s interest rate is now slightly more than seven percent.
Click to see today's rates (Sep 23rd, 2017)

 

The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent, or affiliates.

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2017 Conforming, FHA, & VA Loan Limits

Mortgage loan limits for every U.S. county, as published by Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)