Mortgage Rates Mostly Up Today With Strong Jobs Report, Oct. 4, 2024

October 4, 2024 - 8 min read

Today’s mortgage rates

Most mortgage rates moved up this morning, following in line with yesterday’s economic indicators.

We could be in store for more growth heading into next week as today’s market data and jobs report figures all point to upward pressure on interest rates in the near future.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

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ProgramMortgage RateAPR*Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
Conventional 30-year fixed6.906% 6.954% -0.01
Conventional 20-year fixed
Conventional 20-year fixed6.753% 6.809% -0.01
Conventional 15-year fixed
Conventional 15-year fixed6.186% 6.264% Unchanged
Conventional 10-year fixed
Conventional 10-year fixed6.185% 6.256% -0.01
30-year fixed FHA
30-year fixed FHA6.855% 6.9% +0.2
30-year fixed VA
30-year fixed VA6.818% 6.862% +0.29
5/1 ARM Conventional
5/1 ARM Conventional6.336% 7.156% -0.03
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.228%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.479%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.894%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the intial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 3.973% from 3.83%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes all grew. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they often sell bonds, pushing those prices down and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices increased to $75.01 from $73.68 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices decreased to $2,663 from $2,681 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — increased to 73 from 67 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

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What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

The September jobs report dropped today and greatly exceeded expectations. A total of 254,000 jobs were added for the month, shooting way above the median forecast of 150,000 and August’s 159,000.

The unemployment rate reached 4.1%, inching down from both the expected and previous month’s 4.2%. These numbers align with mortgage rate growth and could keep inflation progressing sideways.

“Across every dimension, the September employment report showed a job market that was stronger than expected,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“Job growth exceeded expectations with a 254,000 gain for the month, and the prior two months’ data were revised upwards by a cumulative 72,000 gain. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% in August to 4.1% in September. Additionally, wage growth re-accelerated to 4%. All of these signs point toward a successful “soft landing,” but also stoke worries that inflation may not move in a straight line to the Fed’s 2% target. This report could certainly slow the expected pace of rate cuts.”

Freddie Mac’s Sept. 26 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.08%, down one basis point from the previous week. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures. Still, they’re a good way to track trends.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their rate forecasts for the last two quarters of 2024 and the first two quarters of 2025 (Q3/24, Q4/24, Q1/25 and Q2/25).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Sept. 10 and the MBA’s on Aug. 15.

ForecasterQ3/24Q4/24Q1/25Q2/25
Fannie Mae6.6%6.2% 6.0%5.9%
MBA6.7%6.5% 6.4%6.3%

In its Mortgage Market Outlook, published Aug. 22, Freddie Mac wrote, “The anticipation of an upcoming [Fed] rate cut is already influencing the market, leading to downward pressure on mortgage rates. As a result, we forecast mortgage rates to gradually decline in the coming quarters.”

Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.

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Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.


Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ

What is a good mortgage rate?

A good mortgage rate is one that aligns with current market trends and your financial situation. As of September 26, 2024, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.08%, while the 15-year fixed mortgage averaged 5.16%, according to Freddie Mac.

How is your mortgage rate determined?

Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, including the economy, the borrower’s credit score, the loan term, and the overall housing market conditions. Lenders also consider the loan amount, down payment, and whether the loan is a conventional or government-backed loan.

How to get the lowest possible rate today?

When searching for the lowest possible mortgage rates, it’s essential to cast a wide net. Take the time to explore offerings from various lenders, including banks, credit unions, and online mortgage providers. By gathering multiple quotes, you’ll be better equipped to identify the most competitive rate and terms that align with your financial goals.

Is fixed or an adjustable-rate mortgage better?

Choosing between the two often boils down to your financial goals and risk tolerance. If you prioritize predictability and plan to stay in your home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage might be a solid choice. However, if you’re comfortable with some level of risk and anticipate selling or refinancing before potential rate adjustments kick in, an adjustable-rate mortgage could offer initial lower rates that might suit your needs.

Should you lock in your mortgage rate today?

Many forecasts predict mortgage rates will decrease gradually through 2024 and 2025, with the 30-year fixed rate likely to drop below 6.5% by the fourth quarter. However, this decline may be slow, and short-term rate increases are possible. If you’re closing soon, locking in your rate may offer stability, but trust your instincts and risk tolerance when deciding whether to float or lock.

Paul Centopani
Authored By: Paul Centopani
The Mortgage Reports Editor
Paul Centopani is a writer and editor who started covering the lending and housing markets in 2018. Previous to joining The Mortgage Reports, he was a reporter for National Mortgage News. Paul grew up in Connecticut, graduated from Binghamton University and now lives in Chicago after a decade in New York and the D.C. area.