Mortgage Rates Tick Higher Before Wednesday's CPI | Today, October 12, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.40%, up 12 basis points (0.12 percentage points) from 7.28% in its October 8 release. The 10-year Treasury yield, a signal that mortgage pricing follows, stands at 5.242%, up 0.6 basis points since our last report, per CNBC. Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index release at 8:30 AM ET is the week’s main event for rate watchers.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.55%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on January 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on October 9, 1981, according to Freddie Mac (survey data since 1971).

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 6.838%.

The average 15-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.10% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on December 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac (survey data since 1991).

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 6.445%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they are now, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%”

Any specific rate figures above reflect this expert’s personal opinion and forecast. They are illustrative only, are not an offer or commitment to lend, and are not an advertised rate. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published, with figures as of 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Monday, October 12, 2026. Each figure compares to the level in our previous report, published October 9, 2026, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 5.242% from 5.236% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes rose in the last session: Dow gained 0.83%, S&P 500 gained 0.59%, Nasdaq gained 0.64%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $93.01 from $90.58 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $4,195.00 from $4,206.40 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 45.0 from 38.1 out of 100, in “fear” territory. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Fear” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices and easing yields; “greed” suggests the opposite.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. That relationship is looser now.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong or weak before they say much about the day’s lender pricing. We still make a daily call, and it is a judgment about the morning’s markets, not a forecast to bank on.

Our call for today: With the 10-year yield 0.6 basis points above our last report and CPI two days out, mortgage rates today might drift slightly higher or barely budge.

Be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Freddie Mac’s October 8 survey showed the 30-year fixed average climbing to 7.40% from 7.28% a week earlier, a 12 basis point jump. The 15-year average rose 13 basis points to 6.73% from 6.60%. These are weekly averages, not today’s lender quotes.

Today’s calendar is quiet. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks at 12:50 PM ET. Tuesday brings the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 6:00 AM ET and Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET, with Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin at 1:00 PM ET and Boston Fed President Susan Collins at 4:00 PM ET.

Wednesday is the big one for rates. The Consumer Price Index releases at 8:30 AM ET and tends to set the tone for bond markets. MBA Mortgage Applications precede it at 7:00 AM ET, and the Beige Book follows at 2:00 PM ET, with Barkin again at 1:30 PM ET.

Thursday delivers a triple hit at 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims, PPI-Final Demand, and Retail Sales. Business Inventories arrive at 10:00 AM ET and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 12:00 PM ET. Hammack speaks again at 4:30 PM ET. Friday closes the week with Import and Export Prices at 8:30 AM ET and Industrial Production at 9:15 AM ET.

The 10-year Treasury yield has edged up to 5.242% since our last report, per CNBC, which is mild upward pressure on bond-priced mortgage debt. Hot CPI readings tend to lift bond yields; cool readings tend to ease them. Watch Wednesday first.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s October 8, 2026 Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 7.40%, rising 12 basis points (0.12 percentage points) from 7.28% the previous week. The 15-year average was 6.73%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year. The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie Mae updated its forecast on September 11 and MBA updated its forecast on September 16.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual, and both groups revise them often.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.