Mortgage Rates Rise Modestly | Today, May 16, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates are under upward pressure today after the 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.597%, up 4.5 basis points from 4.552%, and rate coverage pointed the same way, with one May 16 headline saying mortgage and refinance rates rose with Treasury yields and another saying the 30-year refinance rate climbed 10 basis points. Borrowers shopping today should expect slightly worse pricing than on a quieter session.

The move came with a broader risk-off tone: the Dow fell 1.07%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.24%, and the Nasdaq lost 1.54%, while WTI crude came in at $105.66 per barrel, up $1.39. Fear & Greed still came in at 62.9, in greed territory, but down 2.4 points, which leaves bond yields as the cleaner signal for mortgage pricing today.

Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year benchmark came in at 6.36%, but day-to-day lender quotes can move more than that survey suggests. With CPI and MBA mortgage application data on the calendar this week, borrowers who are close to locking should watch for more near-term volatility.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.468%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.781%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.667%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.597% from 4.552% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes dropped this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $105.66 from $104.27 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $4,543.6 from $4,555.40 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 62.9 from 65.3 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greed” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week starts with housing demand. Existing Home Sales is due Sunday, May 11, at 10:00 a.m. ET, a high-impact release on Econoday’s calendar. It does not move mortgage pricing like inflation data, but it can shape the broader read on whether high borrowing costs are freezing resale activity or whether buyers are still showing up. For rate shoppers, the bigger point is that housing data lands into a market already leaning higher: the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.597% from 4.552%, up 4.5 basis points, a meaningful move for mortgage rate sheets.

Tuesday, May 12, is the main event. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index hits at 6:00 a.m. ET, then CPI follows at 8:30 a.m. ET, the week’s key report for rates. Inflation data tends to feed straight into Treasury trading and mortgage pricing, and this week it arrives with fresh pressure already visible across markets. Stocks sold off Friday, with the Dow down 1.07%, the S&P 500 down 1.24% and the Nasdaq down 1.54%. Oil also moved up, with WTI crude at $105.66 per barrel, up $1.39, while gold slipped $11.8 to $4543.6 an ounce. That mix leaves borrowers exposed if CPI runs hot. New York Fed President John Williams is also scheduled to speak at 3:15 a.m. ET, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee follows at 1:00 p.m. ET, giving markets two chances to parse Fed thinking after the inflation print.

Wednesday, May 13, brings MBA Mortgage Applications at 7:00 a.m. ET. That report is more useful as a read on borrower behavior than as a direct market mover, but it can show how quickly demand reacts when rates jump. Freddie Mac’s latest 30-year PMMS stood at 6.36%, and the news flow has turned more rate-sensitive over the last 24 hours. Google News headlines included “Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, May 16, 2026: Rates rise right along with Treasury yields” and “Mortgage Rates Today, May 16, 2026: 30-Year Refinance Rate Rises by 10 Basis Points,” a clear shift from “Today’s Mortgage Rates Edge Down: May 15, 2026.”

The broader market context still points to a modest upward bias for mortgage rates today. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index was 62.9, still in greed territory even after falling 2.4 points from 65.3, and investors are still weighing bigger-picture policy questions in stories like “Tracker: The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Assets” and “We need to talk about Kevin Warsh’s economy: Morning Brief.” For borrowers, the immediate signal is simpler: Treasury yields rose enough

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s May 16 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.36%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.