Mortgage Rates Face Upward Pressure | Today, July 23, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

The 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.711% early Thursday, up 7.1 basis points from 4.64%, a meaningful move that can keep mortgage pricing elevated or at least choppy for borrowers today. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average came in at 6.55%, but daily lender quotes do not always move in lockstep with that weekly benchmark.

The broader market backdrop was mixed but uneasy: WTI crude jumped $3.84 to $90.88 a barrel, the S&P 500 fell 0.14%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.57%, and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index stayed in fear territory at 43.2. Gold, by contrast, fell $54 to $4,078.3 an ounce, leaving borrowers with a risk-and-inflation picture that still points to uncertainty.

Policy and data risk could add more volatility next. Headlines this week pointed to an unusually unpredictable Fed meeting and a hawkish policy debate, while Jobless Claims arrive at 8:30 a.m. ET today and New Home Sales follows Friday, so borrowers floating a rate may want to stay alert for intraday repricing.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.61%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.984%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.809%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Any specific rate figures above reflect this expert’s personal opinion and forecast. They are illustrative only, are not an offer or commitment to lend, and are not an advertised rate. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.711% from 4.64% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes dropped this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $90.88 from $87.04 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $4,078.3 from $4,132.30 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 43.2 from 41.3 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Fear” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week started with a stronger move in the bond market than many mortgage shoppers may see in same-day lender quotes. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.711% from 4.64%, a jump of 7.1 basis points, according to CNBC. That usually points to upward pressure on mortgage rates, even if consumer-facing headlines were mixed Thursday morning, ranging from “Interest ticks down” to “30-Year Rate Hits One-Month High.” Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year PMMS was last at 6.55% (week of July 16), per Freddie Mac, but that survey can lag fast intraday market moves.

Wednesday’s calendar brought the MBA Mortgage Applications report at 7:00 a.m. ET and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. ET. Energy prices are part of the rate story right now: WTI crude climbed to $90.88 per barrel from $87.04, up $3.84, CNBC said. Higher oil prices can feed inflation worries, which is bad news for bonds and, by extension, mortgages. Gold moved the other way, falling $54.0 to $4,078.3 an ounce from $4,132.3, while stocks were soft, with the Dow down 0.01%, the S&P 500 down 0.14% and the Nasdaq down 0.57%.

Thursday is the busiest day for rate watchers. Weekly Jobless Claims hit at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30 a.m. ET and the Fed’s balance sheet release at 4:30 p.m. ET. Claims matter because labor-market softness can help bonds, while another firm reading could reinforce the higher-yield move. The balance sheet data is more indirect for mortgages, but any sign the Fed is staying restrictive fits with the broader market tone. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index improved to 43.2 from 41.3, still in fear territory, showing investors remain cautious rather than convinced rates are about to break lower.

Friday wraps up the week with New Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET, a housing report mortgage borrowers should watch closely. A stronger-than-expected print could suggest demand is holding up despite elevated financing costs, which would not do much to ease rate pressure. The bigger backdrop is Fed uncertainty. Headlines Thursday included “The Fed Is Heading Into One of Its Most Unpredictable Meetings in Years” and “Warsh’s no-guidance approach confronts a hawkish world and hawkish Fed colleagues.” Put that together with a 10-year yield back near 4.71%, and the weekly signal leans toward higher mortgage-rate pressure, even if individual lenders don’t all reprice in lockstep today.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s July 23 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.55%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.