Mortgage Rates Rise Ahead of Inflation Data | Today, August 11, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage borrowers should expect slightly higher pricing Tuesday after the 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.699%, up 3.3 basis points from 4.666%, and mortgage-rate coverage also pointed to rates being mostly higher. Freddie Mac’s 30-year PMMS last came in at 6.69%, and the broader rate setup suggests lenders are leaning a bit worse today.

WTI crude oil rose to $82.25 a barrel from $79.50, gold climbed to $4,454.90 from $4,388.80, and stocks slipped, with the Dow down 0.11%, the S&P 500 down 0.06% and the Nasdaq down 0.32%. That mix points to a cautious market tone that can keep pressure on bond yields and mortgage pricing.

Borrowers should also watch Existing Home Sales at 10 a.m. ET today and CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday, with inflation already in focus in market coverage. Those reports have a better chance than routine day-to-day noise to move mortgage rates in either direction.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.78%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 6.136%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 6.511%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Any specific rate figures above reflect this expert’s personal opinion and forecast. They are illustrative only, are not an offer or commitment to lend, and are not an advertised rate. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.699% from 4.666% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes dropped this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $82.25 from $79.5 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices increased to $4,454.9 from $4,388.80 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 65.0 from 63.7 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greed” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week starts with a firmer bond-market signal for mortgage borrowers. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.699% from 4.666%, a 3.3-basis-point jump that points to slightly higher mortgage rates today. Other market gauges leaned in the same direction: WTI crude oil climbed to $82.25 per barrel from $79.50, gold rose to $4,454.9 an ounce from $4,388.8, and stocks slipped, with the Dow down 0.11%, the S&P 500 down 0.06% and the Nasdaq down 0.32%. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index moved up to 65.0 from 63.7, still in greed territory. Freddie Mac’s latest 30-year PMMS stood at 6.69%.

Monday’s scheduled event was Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaking at 3:00 p.m. ET, a medium-impact item on Econoday’s calendar. Fed commentary can move Treasurys if investors hear anything new on inflation, rate cuts or the central bank’s tolerance for stronger price data. That matters this week because markets are already keyed up for the next inflation read, and bond traders appear to be adding some caution before it arrives.

Tuesday brings two reports. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is due at 6:00 a.m. ET, followed by Existing Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET. The small-business survey can shape views on hiring, pricing and overall demand, all of which feed into inflation expectations. Existing Home Sales is the bigger release for housing watchers. It won’t usually move mortgage rates as much as inflation data, but a surprise in sales activity can affect sentiment around housing demand and the broader economy.

Wednesday is the main event. MBA Mortgage Applications hits at 7:00 a.m. ET, then the Consumer Price Index lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. ET. CPI is the week’s high-stakes release for rates. A hotter-than-expected reading would likely push Treasury yields higher and pressure mortgage rates upward; a softer number could do the opposite. Energy prices matter too, and with oil already up sharply, the petroleum report will get extra attention for what it may signal about inflation pressure still working through the economy.

That setup helps explain the tone in Tuesday’s coverage, including headlines saying rates were mostly higher and that inflation reports could test the Fed’s tougher talk. For borrowers, the takeaway is simple: this week’s calendar gives the bond market several chances to move, but Wednesday morning’s CPI report is the one most likely to set the direction.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s August 11 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.69%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.