Mortgage Rates Rise Amid Treasury Yield Surge | Today, May 8, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates face upward pressure today after the 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.386%, up 5.2 basis points from 4.334%. That is a meaningful move in the benchmark that often guides mortgage pricing, even with Freddie Mac’s latest 30-year average at 6.37%.

Oil added to the pressure, with WTI crude climbing $3.90 to $95.11 a barrel, while gold fell $31.2 to $4,719.4 and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slipped to 66.8 from 68.6. With energy prices jumping and risk signals mixed, inflation worries and rate volatility are staying in focus for borrowers.

Next up, markets will be watching Factory Orders and John Williams on Sunday, then New Home Sales, the ISM Services Index and Michelle Bowman on Monday. Those reports and Fed remarks could be the next catalysts for mortgage rate swings, so borrowers may want to keep a close eye on lender pricing today and into the next session.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.472%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.782%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.618%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.386% from 4.334% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Mixed for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $95.11 from $91.21 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $4,719.4 from $4,750.60 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 66.8 from 68.6 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greed” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week starts with a clear warning sign for mortgage shoppers: the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.386% Friday, up 5.2 basis points from 4.334%, a meaningful move for rate watchers. Mortgage rates don’t track the 10-year perfectly, but they often move in the same direction, and a jump of this size points to fresh upward pressure. Oil is another problem. WTI crude rose $3.90 to $95.11 per barrel from $91.21, a move that can feed inflation worries and make bond investors demand higher yields. Gold fell $31.20 to $4,719.40 an ounce from $4,750.60, while stocks were flat, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all unchanged on the day. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slipped to 66.8 from 68.6, still in greed territory.

Monday, May 4, brings the first big scheduled data point with Factory Orders at 10:00 a.m. ET. That report gives the market a read on business demand and manufacturing momentum. Stronger-than-expected numbers could reinforce the idea that the economy is still running hot enough to keep pressure on inflation and rates. Later Monday, New York Fed President John Williams is scheduled to speak at 12:50 p.m. ET. Williams is a closely watched Fed voice, so any comments on growth, inflation or the rate path could move Treasury yields and, by extension, mortgage pricing.

Tuesday, May 5, is the busiest day of the week. New Home Sales is due at 10:00 a.m. ET and matters directly to housing because it shows how buyers are responding to current borrowing costs. At the same time, the ISM Services Index hits, and that may be the bigger market mover. Services inflation has been a stubborn issue for the Fed, so a hot ISM reading could push bond yields higher. Also at 10:00 a.m. ET, Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak. If her remarks lean hawkish, markets could read that as another reason to keep mortgage rates elevated.

Freddie Mac’s latest 30-year average stands at 6.37%, but the daily market tone has turned less friendly. The combination of a higher 10-year yield and surging oil prices is what borrowers should be watching right now. Unless this week’s data or Fed commentary gives bond markets a reason to rally, the near-term risk for mortgage rates looks tilted upward, not down.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s May 8 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.37%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.