Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Amid Fed Leadership Developments | Today, May 23, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

The 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.558% Friday, up 0.8 basis points from 4.55%, so the market backdrop is a touch worse for mortgage shoppers even as some coverage says rates are “falling again today.” Freddie Mac’s 30-year average most recently came in at 6.51%, and the practical read is that borrowers are more likely to see limited movement than any dramatic drop.

The bigger story is Kevin Warsh taking over as Fed chair against what one headline called a “backdrop of rising inflation threat.” That matters more than a tiny daily move in Treasurys, especially with President Trump telling Warsh, “Don’t look at me, don’t look at anybody,” because borrowers should expect inflation and future rate expectations to stay front and center.

Market tone also leaned only mildly rate-friendly: WTI crude rose $1.02 to $97.00, stocks gained, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index ticked up to 58.6, and gold fell $23.80 to $4,510.50. Taken together, that points to a modest risk-on, inflation-aware setup that doesn’t strongly argue for lower mortgage rates today.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.651%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 6.008%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.82%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.558% from 4.55% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes rose this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $97.0 from $95.98 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $4,510.5 from $4,534.30 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 58.6 from 58.0 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greed” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week, mortgage borrowers are looking at a market that’s drifting higher on the bond side just as Washington hands them a bigger story to process. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage pricing, was at 4.558% Friday, up 0.008 point from 4.55%, according to Yahoo Finance. Oil also moved up, with WTI crude at $97.0 a barrel, up $1.02 from $95.98, a detail lenders and traders watch because energy costs can feed inflation. At the same time, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey had the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.51%.

Sunday starts with a Fed-related appearance before markets get into the heavier part of the calendar. Cheryl Venable is scheduled to speak at 8:30 a.m. ET on May 18, according to Econoday. Fed speeches do not always move mortgage rates on their own, but this week they matter more because the policy backdrop has changed fast. Two political headlines are hanging over rate markets: “Trump to Fed chair Warsh: ‘Don’t look at me, don’t look at anybody’” and “Kevin Warsh is Sworn in as Fed Chair Against Backdrop of Rising Inflation Threat.” For mortgage shoppers, that keeps attention on whether the central bank will sound more worried about inflation than growth.

Monday brings a fuller slate. Christopher Waller speaks at 8:00 a.m. ET, Anna Paulson is on at 7:00 p.m. ET, and Cheryl Venable speaks again at 7:45 p.m. ET. With no top-tier economic release listed that morning, traders may use those appearances to test how unified Fed officials sound under the new chair. If policymakers lean hawkish or stress inflation risks, mortgage rates could keep feeling pressure even if daily lender sheets do not move much right away.

Wednesday is the most practical day for housing watchers. The Mortgage Bankers Association releases mortgage applications at 7:00 a.m. ET on May 20, followed by Michael Barr speaking at 9:15 a.m. ET. The MBA report gives an early read on how buyers and refinancers are reacting to current borrowing costs. A soft applications number would show affordability is still pinching demand. A surprise pickup, though, could suggest some borrowers are stepping in when rates dip.

Outside the calendar, broader market signals are mixed rather than reassuring. Stocks were higher Friday, with the Dow up 0.58%, the S&P 500 up 0.37% and the Nasdaq up 0.19%, while CNN’s Fear & Greed Index rose to 58.6 from 58.0, staying in greed territory. Gold fell $23.8 to $4510.5 an ounce. Put together, the week’s setup leaves mortgage rates caught between a modest rise in market yields and a much bigger Fed leadership story that could keep inflation and rate

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s May 23 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.51%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.