Mortgage Rates Drift Lower to Kick Off New Year | Today, January 2, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates began the year with good news for borrowers as they hit a soft decline this morning.

Though it may be short-lived, as today’s economic indicators look like they may push interest rates slightly higher in the near-term.

Although mortgage rates regressed from their recent annual lows, see if it still makes sense to refinance or tap into your home equity. For hopeful buyers, negotiating can get your rate down and qualifying for financial assistance programs or more lenient loan types can lower your barrier to entry.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.20%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.44%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.67%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com

“I expect mortgage rates to be relatively stable. They’ve hovered roughly around 6.25% since mid-September, and that’s largely where I expect them to remain in both the near-term and medium-term.”

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.178% from 4.172%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes all rose this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they often sell bonds, pushing those prices down and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices decreased to $56.90 from $58.04 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices increased to $4,355 from $4,344 an ounce. (Neutral (but moving in a good direction) for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 44 from 47 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

One economic report - the first of 2026 - comes out today.

S&P’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index dipped to 51.8 in December from 52.2 in November.

“Although manufacturers continued to ramp up production in December, prospects for the
start of 2026 are looking less rosy. Factories are continuing to produce goods despite suffering a drop in orders. The gap between growth of production and the drop in orders is in fact the widest seen since the height of the global financial crisis back in 2008-09. Unless demand improves, current factory production levels are clearly unsustainable. Payroll numbers will also be adversely impacted if production capacity has to be scaled back,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P.

“A key factor causing concern over sales is the extent to which producers are having to pass higher costs on to customers in the form of raised prices, with higher costs continuing to be overwhelmingly blamed on tariffs. Some encouragement comes from input cost inflation moderating in December to the lowest recorded since last January. However, while this cost trend suggests the tariff impact on inflation peaked back in the summer, costs are still rising month-on-month at an elevated rate to suggest that US firms continue to face higher cost growth than competitors in most other major economies.”

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s December 31 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.15%, falling three basis points (0.03%) from the previous week. But note that Freddie’s data represents a broad average and is best used as a barometer of the market and trend tracker. Individual rates will vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for 2026.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on December 10 and the MBA updated theirs on December 12.

In its Mortgage Market Outlook published Jan. 24, Freddie Mac wrote, “our outlook for the U.S. economy in 2025 is positive, though we expect the pace of growth to moderate. In late 2024, the U.S. labor market started showing signs of cooling and we expect that to persist in 2025. Modestly higher unemployment and slower job gains will reduce some of the pressures on inflation.”

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ