Key Takeaways
- The 2027 forecasts we verified put the 30-year fixed rate between 6.4% (Goldman Sachs) and 7.5% (Fannie Mae) by late 2027, a simple average of 7.0%.
- The MBA’s Oct. 11, 2026 forecast has the 30-year rate averaging 7.2% in the first three quarters of 2027 and 7.1% in the fourth.
- The Mortgage Reports data: the average 30-year fixed rate has ranged from 6.041% to 7.568% in 2026, a 1.53-point swing.
As of November 2026, the major published forecasts expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to end 2027 between 6.4% and 7.5%, with a simple average of 7.0%. That is about 0.2 percentage point below the 7.201% (7.270% APR) national average for a 30-year fixed purchase loan on Nov. 10, 2026. Fannie Mae is highest at 7.5%, the Mortgage Bankers Association is at 7.1%, and Goldman Sachs Research is lowest at 6.4%. The National Association of Realtors has not released its 2027 number yet.
Check your mortgage rate options. Start hereIn this article (Skip to...)
- 2027 mortgage rate forecasts by quarter
- Where mortgage rates are now
- The Mortgage Reports data: How far rates have already moved in 2026
- Why the forecasts disagree
- What the forecasts mean for a payment
- How we got these numbers
- FAQ
Want to see our expert mortgage insights first?
Add The Mortgage Reports as a preferred source on Google. You’ll automatically see our latest rate analyses, buying guides, and housing forecasts highlighted in your Google Search, AI Mode, and AI Overviews.
2027 mortgage rate forecasts by quarter
This table shows each forecaster’s latest published 30-year fixed rate forecast for 2027. Quarterly figures are quarterly averages unless noted. We will update it as new forecasts come out.
| Forecaster | Released | Q1 2027 | Q2 2027 | Q3 2027 | Q4 2027 |
| Fannie Mae ESR Group | October 2026 | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Mortgage Bankers Association | Oct. 11, 2026 | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Research | Oct. 30, 2026 | Not published | Not published | Not published | 6.4% (2027 level; quarter not specified) |
| National Association of Realtors | Postponed to Dec. 16, 2026 | Not yet published | Not yet published | Not yet published | Not yet published |
| Freddie Mac | No numeric forecast | — | — | — | — |
| Simple average of published forecasts | 7.0% | ||||
| Today’s 30-year fixed average (Mortech) | As of Nov. 10, 2026 | 7.201% (7.270% APR) |
Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group raised its forecast sharply in October. It now sees the 30-year rate at 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5% through all of 2027, according to MBA Newslink. Its September forecast had a 2027 average of 6.7%, Mortgage.News reported.
MBA. The MBA’s October 2026 Mortgage Finance Forecast has the 30-year rate averaging 7.3% in the fourth quarter of 2026, 7.2% in each of the first three quarters of 2027 and 7.1% in the fourth quarter. It sees 7.0% at the end of 2028. The MBA bases its forecast on Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year fixed rate. Its release says rates should stay above 7% through 2027.
Goldman Sachs. In an Oct. 30, 2026 outlook, Goldman Sachs Research said its credit strategists expect mortgage rates to decline in 2027 but remain elevated at 6.4%. Goldman did not give quarterly figures. Mortgage Professional America describes 6.4% as Goldman’s year-end 2027 level, so we use it in the average.
NAR and Freddie Mac. At NAR NXT in early November, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun postponed his 2027 forecast until Dec. 16, Homes.com reported. Freddie Mac’s research page lists no outlook newer than January 2025 and no numeric rate forecast, so we leave it out.
Compare today's mortgage rates from top lenders
Where mortgage rates are now
Today’s (November 11, 2026) average 30-year fixed rate is 7.227% (7.305% APR). The 15-year fixed averages 6.652%.
Here are the dated national averages we used to compare against the forecasts.
| Loan type (purchase) | Average rate as of Nov. 10, 2026 | APR |
| 30-year fixed conventional | 7.201% | 7.270% |
| 15-year fixed conventional | 6.601% | 6.703% |
| 30-year fixed FHA | 6.942% | 6.982% |
| 30-year fixed VA | 6.936% | 6.990% |
| 5/1 ARM conventional | 6.222% | 6.791% |
| 30-year fixed refinance | 7.300% | 7.386% |
The 30-year average fell from 6.778% on Aug. 4 to 6.694% on Aug. 18, climbed to a peak of 7.550% on Oct. 13, then eased each week to 7.201% (7.270% APR) on Nov. 10, 2026. You can follow the longer history on our 30-year mortgage rates chart.
Forecasts track a slightly different series. The MBA forecasts Freddie Mac’s weekly survey rate, which was 7.18% for the week of Nov. 5, 2026. Compare a forecast with that survey, not with a single lender’s quote. Your own rate depends on your credit, down payment, property and lender.
Check your mortgage rate options. Start here
The Mortgage Reports data: How far rates have already moved in 2026
The average 30-year fixed rate has swung 1.53 percentage points in 2026, from a low of 6.041% on March 2 to a high of 7.568% on Oct. 14, according to the Mortech national averages The Mortgage Reports tracks daily. It averaged 6.715% from Jan. 1 to Nov. 10 and stood at 7.201% (7.270% APR) on Nov. 10. A swing that size within one year is a reminder that 2027 forecasts are a midpoint, not a promise.
| Loan type (purchase) | 2026 low (The Mortgage Reports rate data) | 2026 high (The Mortgage Reports rate data) | 2026 average, Jan. 1–Nov. 10 (The Mortgage Reports rate data) |
| 30-year fixed | 6.041% (March 2) | 7.568% (Oct. 14) | 6.715% |
| 15-year fixed | 5.457% (March 2) | 7.258% (May 21) | 6.079% |
| 5-year ARM | 5.315% (March 6) | 6.924% (Oct. 21) | 6.014% |
| 30-year FHA | 5.652% (March 7) | 7.240% (Oct. 18) | 6.469% |
| 30-year VA | 5.862% (March 7) | 7.280% (Oct. 10) | 6.562% |
Source: Mortech national average rates for purchase loans, tracked daily by The Mortgage Reports, Jan. 1 to Nov. 10, 2026.
Why the forecasts disagree
Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread. The MBA’s October table assumes the 10-year yield averages 5.0% in the first three quarters of 2027 and 4.9% in the fourth, which is why its rate forecast barely moves. A forecaster that expects lower yields or a narrower spread lands lower, as Goldman does.
Forecasts also change quickly. In its May 2026 release, Fannie Mae expected a 6.3% average for the rest of 2026, National Mortgage News reported. The MBA now puts the fourth quarter of 2026 at 7.3%. In June 2026, Fannie Mae and Wells Fargo each projected 6.2% for the fourth quarter of 2027, and the MBA projected 6.5%, ResiClub reported. All three have since revised higher, or have not published a newer figure we could verify.
Treat any single forecast as one estimate. The spread between the highest and lowest 2027 forecasts is 1.1 percentage points.
What the forecasts mean for a payment
On a $400,000, 30-year fixed loan, principal and interest would be about:
| Rate | Source | Monthly principal and interest |
| 6.4% | Goldman Sachs 2027 forecast | $2,502 |
| 7.0% | Average of 2027 forecasts | $2,661 |
| 7.201% (7.270% APR) | Average rate, Nov. 10, 2026 | $2,715 |
| 7.5% | Fannie Mae 2027 forecast | $2,797 |
The gap between the low and high forecasts is about $295 a month on this example. Payments exclude taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance. The rates are interest rates, not APRs; the Nov. 10, 2026 average’s APR was 7.270%, and forecasters don’t publish APRs. This is an example, not an offer. For forecasts by loan type, see our mortgage rates forecast for FHA, VA, USDA and conventional loans.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
How we got these numbers
We collected the most recent 30-year fixed rate forecast from each forecaster that publishes one, checked on Nov. 10, 2026. The MBA figures come from its October forecast table. Goldman Sachs figures come from its own article. Fannie Mae’s quarterly figures come from MBA Newslink and Mortgage.News coverage of its October 2026 housing forecast, because Fannie Mae’s file could not be opened during our check. The average is a simple mean of the three year-end 2027 figures (7.5%, 7.1% and 6.4%). Today’s rates are Mortech national averages for purchase loans as of Nov. 10, 2026, and weekly readings are Tuesday values. Historical highs, lows and averages are interest rates, not APRs.
FAQ
Sources: MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast, Oct. 11, 2026, MBA Newslink (MBA forecast), MBA Newslink (Fannie Mae forecast), Mortgage.News, Goldman Sachs Research, Mortgage Professional America, Homes.com, Freddie Mac, National Mortgage News, ResiClub, Mortech national averages via Full Beaker (Nov. 10, 2026).
