Mortgage rates today, Apr. 27, and rate forecast for next week

Today’s mortgage rates

Average mortgage rates fell moderately yesterday. It’s been a week of ups and downs. But mortgage rates this morning are almost the same as they were seven days ago.

I can't predict how mortgage rates will move next week. Three events on the calendar could move those rates significantly. And each is impossible to forecast with any confidence at all.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

For mortgage rates to fall consistently, we need strong signs that inflation is slowing and the economy is weakening. And recent data have tended to show the opposite.

I believe this likely means we won’t see such falls until at least well into the second half of this year and possibly not until 2025.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

What’s moving current mortgage rates

This week

It hasn’t been a bad week for mortgage rates. They just inched almost imperceptibly higher.

But, seven days ago, they were very close to highs last seen last November. Since then, they’ve reached those highs only to back off again.

I guess we can celebrate a pause in the worsening of the pain. But I reckon we’re a way off a cure.

Next week’s economic reports

Earlier, I mentioned three events on the calendar this week that are especially likely to move mortgage rates significantly. Other reports and events might also change them but probably only in a limited and temporary way.

So, let’s explore those three crucial events.

1. Treasury Marketable Borrowing Estimates (Monday)

Each quarter, the U.S. Treasury unveils the amount it thinks it needs to borrow over the next six months. And the latest estimates are due on Monday.

Treasury borrowing is funded through bonds. And, if the amount it needs is higher or lower than markets are expecting, that can affect demand for bonds generally. Changes in demand lead to changes in bond prices and yields.

That all sounds very dry and distant from mortgage rates. But those rates are largely determined by yields on a type of bond called a mortgage-backed security (MBS). And yields for MBSs in the bond market in which those are traded are very likely to respond to fluctuating demand for Treasury bills, bonds and notes.

2. Fed rate announcement (Wednesday)

The Federal Reserve is due to start a meeting of its rate-setting committee next Tuesday. And that means a rate announcement, report and news conference on Wednesday.

It’s highly unlikely that we’ll see a change in general interest rates that day. The CME FedWatch tool puts the probability of them remaining unchanged at 97.6%.

But the report and news conference will likely reveal changes in the Fed’s thinking on its rate policy. After its last meeting, on Mar. 20, it penciled in three 2024 cuts to general interest rates, with the first occurring in May or June.

But recent economic data have almost certainly derailed those plans. And the Fed’s likely to reveal fewer cuts beginning later in the year.

Markets are already expecting that news. But nobody knows how many cuts will remain on the schedule or when they’ll start. The fewer and the later, the worse next Wednesday might be for mortgage rates.

3. April jobs report (Friday)

The jobs report (aka the employment situation report) is one of the two most consequential economic reports for mortgage rates. So, don’t underestimate its possible impact.

It really could send mortgage rates plunging or soaring, but only if its data are very different from what markets are expecting.

And therein lies a problem. The experts who create market expectations through their “analysts’ consensus forecast” have a terrible record for predicting jobs reports.

They keep saying that the number of new jobs created each month will tumble. And the labor market keeps proving them wrong.

They’re at it again for this report, saying that number will fall to 250,000 in April from 303,000 in March. The trouble is, one of these months they’ll finally be proved right.

Anything below 250,000 next Friday could be really good for mortgage rates. But anything appreciably higher might be bad.

Summary of economic reports and events next week

See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.

In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.

• Monday — Treasury borrowing estimates
• Tuesday — Employment cost index for the first quarter. Plus February’s S&P Case-Shiller home price index. And the April consumer confidence index
• Wednesday — Fed rate announcement. Also, the April ADP employment report; March construction spending; and the April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) from the ISM for the manufacturing sector. Plus the March job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS)
• Thursday — Productivity and unit labor costs for the first quarter. Plus the trade deficit and factory orders in March. Also, initial jobless claims during the week ending Apr. 27.
• Friday — April jobs report. Also, the April PMI from the ISM for the services sector. Plus speaking engagements for two senior Fed officials

Any economic report can affect mortgage rates. But the three big events next week are likely to set the tone and could bring real volatility, depending on what they say.

Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you

Mortgage rates forecast for next week

Sorry! Another cop out. I stand zero chance of predicting how mortgage rates will move next week.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.

And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.

Your part

But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:

1. Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
2. Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
3. Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
4. Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
5. Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?

Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.

Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:

• Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
• Interest — The price of borrowing
• Taxes — Specifically property taxes
• Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance

Our mortgage calculator can help with these.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.

But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

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