Mortgage and refinance rates today, Dec. 6, 2022

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates barely moved yesterday. That’s good news since they’re close to two-month lows.

This morning, it’s looking as if mortgage rates today might hold steady or close to steady. But that could change later in the day.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

I fear that the next important Federal Reserve meeting, on Dec. 14, will begin to push mortgage rates higher again.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term must for now remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady at 3.57%. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) However, those yields were rising this morning. More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were barely moving soon after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices tumbled to $76.70 from $82.15 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices decreased to $1,790 from $1,800 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — fell to 64 from 69 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or barely changed. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Dec. 14 will see the close of a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee. And the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be publishing its dot plot that day.

That dot plot lays out in graphic form the personal interest rate predictions of each FOMC member. And it may prove a moment of truth for markets.

Because many investors have persuaded themselves that the Fed is on the brink of slowing and soon reversing its rate hikes. And that belief was behind the significant falls in mortgage rates we saw on Nov. 10 and Dec. 1.

Higher-than-expected rates next year?

But their grounds for believing that are decidedly shaky. Indeed, the Fed itself has repeatedly warned that it’s planning several rate hikes in the first few months of 2023. And at least one leading FOMC member has said that he’s revising upward his forecast of that year’s peak rate.

That sentiment was reflected overnight in The Wall Street Journal’s (paywall) lead story. It began: “Federal Reserve officials have signaled plans to raise their benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point at their meeting next week, but elevated wage pressures could lead them to continue lifting it to higher levels than investors currently expect.”

I fear that the FOMC’s report and news conference on Dec. 14 might act as a bucket of cold water on market optimism. And, if it does, that will likely see mortgage rates rise. I and others wouldn’t be surprised to see them back up in the 7% range by the year’s end or soon after.

Indeed, as Dec. 14 looms, some investors may begin to ask themselves how confident they are in their beliefs. And any doubts could alone push mortgage rates higher before the FOMC meeting.

Of course, none of this is certain. But it does look like a credible scenario to me.

For more background, please read the latest weekend edition of this report. It includes my reasons for thinking mortgage rates might move higher again soon.

Recent trends

According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

Freddie’s Dec. 1 report put that same weekly average at 6.49%, down from the previous week’s 6.58%.

Recently, Freddie stopped including discount points in its forecasts. It has also moved later in the day the time at which it publishes its Thursday reports. And, from now on, we'll be updating this section on Fridays.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/22) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23 and Q3/24).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s forecast appeared on Nov. 22, the MBA’s on Nov. 23 and Freddie’s on Oct. 21. Freddie now publishes its forecasts quarterly and its figures can quickly become stale.

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.