Mortgage and refinance rates today, Oct. 25, 2022

October 25, 2022 - 7 min read

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates just edged lower yesterday. Rejoice! That was the second consecutive business day of falls, which has been a rare phenomenon recently. However, I wouldn’t yet read too much into the good news.

Still, so far this morning, mortgage rates today look likely to fall. Just be aware that these short trends can turn on a dime, so there are no guarantees.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed
Conventional 30 year fixed 7.351% 7.384% +0.05%
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed 6.71% 6.748% -0.1%
Conventional 20 year fixed
Conventional 20 year fixed 7.421% 7.484% +0.11%
Conventional 10 year fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed 6.716% 6.834% -0.06%
30 year fixed FHA
30 year fixed FHA 7.217% 7.931% -0.1%
15 year fixed FHA
15 year fixed FHA 7.125% 7.401% Unchanged
30 year fixed VA
30 year fixed VA 6.75% 6.982% +0.02%
15 year fixed VA
15 year fixed VA 6.125% 6.483% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Next week’s likely to bring another big rate hike by the Federal Reserve. They may get smaller after that, but it’s looking likely they won’t stop rising for a while. And I doubt mortgage rates will fall far and for long until they do.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 4.08% from 4.23%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were mostly higher soon after opening. (Sometimes bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices decreased to $84.78 from $84.83 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices nudged up to $1,661 from $1,650 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 53 from 47 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting body (the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC) begins a two-day meeting one week today. And it will announce the size of its next rate hike the following day, Nov. 2.

Markets seem convinced it’s going to be another giant 75-basis-point (0.75%) one. Overnight, CME’s FedWatch tool reckoned there was a 97.2% probability of that big an increase.

If that’s correct, mortgage rates may barely move next Wednesday as a result of the hike. That’s because investors are expecting it and will have traded ahead based on that expectation.

However, they could still move that day as a result of something called the “dot plot.” That’s a graph on which each FOMC member plots his or her forecast of where the Fed rate will be at various points in the future.

And Wall Street will be hoping several members are expecting that rate to plateau and fall soon. If that’s the case, mortgage rates might fall that day. But if most members still expect high rates well into 2023, mortgage rates might rise.

Key economic reports this week

A couple of highly influential economic reports are due out later this week. They’re likely to be viewed largely through the prism of how they’ll affect the FOMC’s plans for its rate.

Thursday sees the publication of the first reading (of three) of gross domestic product (GDP) during the third quarter. Economists polled by MarketWatch are expecting healthy annualized growth of 2.3% during that period. If it’s much higher, mortgage rates might rise — or fall if its appreciably lower.

Friday brings the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report for September. And that includes the PCE price index, which is the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation. MarketWatch says economists are expecting a year-over-year number of 5.2%. Again, a higher figure could push mortgage rates up while a lower one might drag them down.

In the meantime, while we’re waiting for those reports, mortgage rates might (no promises!) continue to drift. Let’s hope they continue to do so in a downward direction. But drifting is generally pretty random.

For more background on where mortgage rates might be heading, read the weekend edition of this daily report.

According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

Freddie’s Oct. 20 report put that same weekly average at 6.94% (with 0.9 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 6.92%.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.9 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote. Belatedly, Freddie says it plans to stop including discount points in its forecasts later this year.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/22) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23 and Q3/24).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s forecast appeared on Oct. 10, the MBA’s on Oct. 23 and Freddie’s on Oct. 21.

ForecasterQ4/22Q1/23Q2/23Q3/23
Fannie Mae6.7%6.6% 6.5%6.4%
Freddie Mac6.8%6.6% 6.5%6.4%
MBA6.7%6.2% 5.7%5.5%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive. Personally, I think they’re too optimistic.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Peter Warden
Authored By: Peter Warden

The Mortgage Reports Editor|User role

Peter Warden has been writing for a decade about mortgages, personal finance, credit cards, and insurance. His work has appeared across a wide range of media. He lives in a small town with his partner of 25 years.