Mortgage Rates Face Slightly Firmer Pressure | Today, May 5, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates look prone to stay elevated or edge higher today after the 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.414%, up 1.8 basis points from 4.396%, while recent coverage said fixed-rate loans rose week over week and the 30-year rate hit a one-month high. Freddie Mac’s 30-year survey came in at 6.3%, and the latest move in Treasurys points to slightly firmer pressure for borrowers.

The broader market setup looked mixed rather than panicked: the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were flat, while WTI crude slipped $0.33 to $103.07 and gold fell $10.70 to $4,574.00. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index still came in at 62.2, or “greed,” though that was down 3.9 points from 66.1, which suggests sentiment cooled a bit even as rate pressure persisted.

At 10:00 a.m. ET, markets get New Home Sales, the ISM Services Index, and remarks from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, with inflation and Fed policy already in focus after fresh Buffett coverage tied attention back to Jay Powell and the central bank. For mortgage shoppers, that leaves room for more volatility late this morning, with little in the early setup pointing to meaningful rate relief.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.464%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.788%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.643%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.414% from 4.396% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Mixed for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices decreased to $103.07 from $103.4 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $4,574.0 from $4,584.70 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 62.2 from 66.1 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greed” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week starts with a little more upward pressure on mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury yield moved up to 4.414% from 4.396%, according to yfinance, a shift that usually points in the same direction for home loan pricing. Other market gauges were quieter early: WTI crude oil slipped to $103.07 per barrel from $103.40, gold fell to $4,574.0 an ounce from $4,584.7, and the major stock indexes were flat. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index eased to 62.2 from 66.1, still in greed territory. Taken together, the bond move is the clearest signal for borrowers this morning.

Monday’s calendar was led by Factory Orders at 10:00 a.m. ET, a high-impact report that can sway rates if business demand comes in much stronger or weaker than expected. Later, New York Fed President John Williams was scheduled to speak at 12:50 p.m. ET. Fed commentary matters because mortgage rates remain highly sensitive to any hint about how long policymakers think inflation will stay sticky and how long short-term rates may need to remain restrictive.

Tuesday brings the heavier set of mortgage-moving events. New Home Sales is on the calendar at 10:00 a.m. ET, with another listing at 10:01 a.m. ET, and the ISM Services Index also lands at 10:00 a.m. ET. For rates, ISM Services may be the bigger market driver because it offers a fresh read on the largest part of the economy and can influence inflation expectations. A hotter-than-expected services reading would be more likely to push Treasury yields higher, while a softer number could help rates settle down. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is also scheduled to speak at 10:00 a.m. ET, putting markets in position to process economic data and Fed rhetoric all at once.

The broader tone this week is still centered on inflation and the Federal Reserve. That was reinforced by fresh news attention on Warren Buffett’s comments about inflation concerns, Jay Powell and the Fed. Recent coverage has also pointed to mortgage rates moving higher on a week-over-week basis and the 30-year rate reaching a one-month high. Freddie Mac’s latest 30-year PMMS reading stands at 6.3% on FRED, which gives borrowers a benchmark, even though daily lender quotes can move faster than the weekly survey.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s May 5 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.3%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.