Today’s mortgage rates
For a borrower this morning, the week’s rate signals are quiet. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, released October 15, kept the 30-year fixed average at 7.40%, while the 15-year survey fell 2 basis points to 6.71%. The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage pricing tracks, sits at 5.106%, unchanged from our last report but 1.9 basis points above Thursday’s close of 5.087%, per CNBC. That is a modest rise since Thursday’s close, not a confirmed shift in what lenders are quoting today. Industrial Production, this week’s final high-impact release, is still ahead at 9:15 AM ET and could nudge yields in either direction.
Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here| Program | Mortgage Rate | APR* | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conventional 30-year fixed | |||
| Conventional 30-year fixed | 7.504% | 7.576% | +0.04 |
| Conventional 20-year fixed | |||
| Conventional 20-year fixed | 7.301% | 7.413% | -0.03 |
| Conventional 15-year fixed | |||
| Conventional 15-year fixed | 6.823% | 6.953% | +0.02 |
| Conventional 10-year fixed | |||
| Conventional 10-year fixed | 6.696% | 6.807% | -0.07 |
| 30-year fixed FHA | |||
| 30-year fixed FHA | 7.23% | 7.274% | Unchanged |
| 30-year fixed VA | |||
| 30-year fixed VA | 7.18% | 7.242% | -0.04 |
| 5/1 ARM Conventional | |||
| 5/1 ARM Conventional | 6.85% | 6.591% | -0.29 |
| Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here. | |||
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
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30-year fixed rate mortgage
At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.504%.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on January 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on October 9, 1981, according to Freddie Mac (survey data since 1971).
A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.
15-year fixed rate mortgage
Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 6.823%.
The average 15-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.10% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on December 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac (survey data since 1991).
The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.
[click_table instance_v2="5caf80fdd8e3f21f6b2eee7e" hideWhen="br_swap"]5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage
This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 6.85%.
Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published, with figures as of 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Friday, October 16, 2026. Each figure compares to the level in our previous report, published October 15, 2026, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.
- The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady at 5.106% (Neutral for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
- Major stock indexes rose in the last session: Dow gained 1.08%, S&P 500 gained 0.33%, Nasdaq gained 0.08%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
- Oil prices increased to $98.03 from $95.30 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
- Gold prices increased to $4,197.00 from $4,172.00 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
- CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 32.1 from 29.7 out of 100, in “fear” territory. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Fear” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices and easing yields; “greed” suggests the opposite.
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. That relationship is looser now.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong or weak before they say much about the day’s lender pricing. We still make a daily call, and it is a judgment about the morning’s markets, not a forecast to bank on.
Our call for today: The 10-year Treasury yield is 1.9 basis points above Thursday's close at 5.106%, mild upward pressure on mortgage pricing. Our read is that lender quotes could drift a touch higher today, though a move that small often leaves rate sheets effectively flat.
Be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start hereWhat’s driving mortgage rates today?
This week
The borrower-relevant number this week came from Freddie Mac’s survey for the week of October 15: the 30-year fixed average held at 7.40% and the 15-year average fell 2 basis points to 6.71%. That is a weekly reading, and today’s lender sheets depend on this morning’s bond market more than on a seven-day average.
Three distinct measures are in play. The Freddie Mac survey is a weekly average published once a week. The 10-year Treasury yield is an intraday signal mortgage pricing follows. The quote on a lender’s rate sheet is what a borrower sees, and it can move several times in a session. A move in one does not confirm a move in another.
The calendar packed in CPI on Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET and a stacked 8:30 AM ET window on Thursday for Jobless Claims, Producer Prices and Retail Sales, with the Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon at 2:00 PM ET. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack opened the week on Monday; Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin each took the podium twice; Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Boston Fed President Susan Collins each had a Tuesday turn. The target range still sits at 3.75% to 4.00% after the Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points on September 16, 2026. Industrial Production, this week’s final high-impact release, is still ahead at 9:15 AM ET; a strong reading tends to lift yields and a soft one tends to ease them.
Recent trends
Freddie Mac’s October 15, 2026 Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 7.40%, unchanged from the previous week. The 15-year average was 6.71%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year. The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie Mae updated its forecast on September 11 and MBA updated its forecast on September 16.
| Forecaster | Q3/26 | Q4/26 | Q1/27 | Q2/27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| MBA | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual, and both groups revise them often.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for youMortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
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Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.
