Mortgage Rates Dip Amid Cautious Sentiment | Today, July 17, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

The 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.525% today, down 5.6 basis points from 4.581%, which points to some downward pressure on mortgage rates. That said, published mortgage-rate coverage was mixed, and Freddie Mac’s 30-year average most recently came in at 6.55%, so borrowers shouldn’t assume every lender moved lower right away.

Markets also leaned risk-off: the Dow fell 0.20%, the S&P 500 fell 0.51%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.47%, and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slid to 42.6 from 46.9, in fear territory. That kind of tone helps explain why Treasury yields fell, even with gold down $41.20 to $3,991.70 an ounce.

Borrowers should also keep some room for volatility this week because the calendar included Tuesday’s CPI report and several Fed speakers, including Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, and Michael Barr. The practical takeaway is that today’s Treasury move is a helpful signal for rates, but shoppers may still see lenders reprice as markets digest inflation data and Fed commentary.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.622%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 6.005%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 6.326%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Any specific rate figures above reflect this expert’s personal opinion and forecast. They are illustrative only, are not an offer or commitment to lend, and are not an advertised rate. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.525% from 4.581% (Good for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes dropped this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $80.91 from $80.2 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $3,991.7 from $4,032.90 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 42.6 from 46.9 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Fear” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week started with Fed speakers before the data picked up. On Monday, Michelle Bowman was scheduled to speak at 5:25 a.m. ET and Christopher Waller at 12:30 p.m. ET, both medium-weight events on the calendar. Borrowers usually watch those appearances for clues on how comfortable policymakers are with inflation and rate cuts, because any shift in Fed thinking can move Treasury yields first and mortgage pricing after that.

Tuesday brought the week’s biggest scheduled release so far. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was due at 6:00 a.m. ET, followed by the Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET, the kind of report that can reset rate expectations in a hurry. CPI matters most for mortgage shoppers because hotter inflation tends to push bond yields and mortgage rates higher, while softer readings can do the opposite. Later Tuesday, Michael Barr was on the calendar twice, at 12:40 p.m. ET and 12:55 p.m. ET, giving markets another chance to parse Fed commentary after the inflation data.

By Friday, the clearest market signal was in Treasurys. The 10-year yield fell to 4.525%, down 0.056 from 4.581%, a 5.6-basis-point drop that borrowers should pay attention to. Mortgage rates do not track the 10-year tick for tick, but a move of that size is meaningful and usually points to at least some downward pressure on lender pricing if it holds. The catch is that mortgage signals were still mixed Friday, matching broader rate coverage that described mortgage and refinance rates as mixed today.

Outside bonds, the rest of the market showed a more cautious tone than a full risk-on rally. Stocks were lower, with the Dow down 0.20%, the S&P 500 down 0.51% and the Nasdaq off 1.47%. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slipped to 42.6 from 46.9, moving deeper into fear. At the same time, WTI crude rose to $80.91 per barrel from $80.20, which is not great news for inflation watchers, while gold fell to $3,991.7 an ounce from $4,032.9. Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year fixed-rate average was 6.55%, a useful benchmark, but the bigger day-to-day story for borrowers was Friday’s drop in the 10-year yield versus still-choppy mortgage rate pricing.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s July 17 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.55%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.