Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Amid Market Signals | Today, August 3, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates look mostly steady to mixed to start Monday, with Freddie Mac’s 30-year benchmark last coming in at 6.66% and rate coverage describing purchase and refinance pricing as mixed or standing still. That leaves borrowers with a familiar setup: little sign of a broad move lower, but not much evidence of fresh upward pressure either.

The market signals worth watching came from bonds and energy. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 1.6 basis points to 4.676% from 4.692%, while WTI crude oil fell $6.31 to $78.86 a barrel from $85.17. If those moves hold, they could modestly ease some of the pressure tied to mortgage pricing.

Risk sentiment improved, with the Dow up 0.53%, the S&P 500 up 0.70%, the Nasdaq up 1.00%, and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index rising to a neutral 45.1 from 39.0. But for mortgage shoppers, bond yields and inflation signals still matter more than a better tone in stocks.

The next test comes at 10:00 a.m. ET with the ISM Manufacturing Index, followed this week by Factory Orders, MBA mortgage applications, the ISM Services Index, the EIA petroleum report and remarks from Fed Governor Lisa Cook. With New York Fed President John Williams also saying the Fed will act if inflation doesn’t ease, borrowers should be ready for rates to stay near current levels unless this week’s data shifts the bond market more decisively.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.778%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 6.113%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 6.391%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Any specific rate figures above reflect this expert’s personal opinion and forecast. They are illustrative only, are not an offer or commitment to lend, and are not an advertised rate. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.676% from 4.692% (Good for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes rose this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices decreased to $78.86 from $85.17 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $4,106.7 from $4,113.70 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 45.1 from 39.0 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Neutral” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Mortgage borrowers are starting the week with rates broadly steady, and the clearest market move so far is outside housing. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $78.86 a barrel, down $6.31 from $85.17, a sharp drop that could ease some inflation pressure if it holds. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage pricing, also edged lower to 4.676% from 4.692%. Gold slipped to $4,106.7 an ounce from $4,113.7. Stocks opened the week in a risk-on mood, with the Dow up 0.53%, the S&P 500 up 0.70% and the Nasdaq up 1.00%, while CNN’s Fear & Greed Index improved to 45.1 from 39.0, still in neutral territory.

Monday’s main event is the ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET. It is the first high-impact report of the week and can move bond yields if it points to stronger or weaker factory activity than expected. Stronger data tends to push yields higher by suggesting the economy is holding up and inflation pressure could linger. Weaker data can have the opposite effect and help mortgage pricing.

On Tuesday, markets get Factory Orders at 10:00 a.m. ET. That report is another read on business demand and production. It usually does not carry the same punch as ISM data, but it can still reinforce or challenge Monday’s manufacturing signal. If it comes in hot after a firm ISM reading, lenders could face more upward pressure on rates.

Wednesday is the busiest day. MBA Mortgage Applications hit at 7:00 a.m. ET and offer an early read on purchase and refinance demand as borrowers react to current pricing. At 10:00 a.m. ET, the ISM Services Index lands as the week’s biggest scheduled rate mover because services make up the larger share of the economy. Thirty minutes later, the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. ET will get extra attention after oil’s $6.31 drop. A fresh decline in crude or gasoline-related pressure could support the inflation-cooling story. Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks at 4:05 p.m. ET, and any comments on inflation or the rate path could move bonds late in the day.

For mortgage shoppers, the setup is simple: rates are entering the week near where they left off, with Freddie Mac’s latest 30-year average at 6.66%, but the next move will depend on whether this week’s data confirms slower inflation and softer growth. Falling oil and a slightly lower 10-year yield are constructive signs for now. The question is whether the economic calendar backs them up.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s August 3 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.66%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.