Mortgage and refinance rates today, Jun. 17, and rate forecast for next week

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates moved almost imperceptibly yesterday, just inching higher. All the ups and downs this week have been very modest. And those rates closed yesterday only a tiny bit higher than they did the previous Friday.

If this week, with its major economic reports and events, could barely budge mortgage rates, I doubt next week will. There’s little on the economic calendar.

So, absent some extraordinary, unexpected event, I’ll predict that mortgage rates might be close to unchanged over the next seven days.

Markets will be closed next Monday for the Juneteenth Day holiday. So our daily rates reports will be back on Tuesday.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

It’s hard to imagine mortgage rates falling far in a sustained way anytime soon. True, they probably won’t shoot higher, either. But what’s the point of risking that possibility when the prospect of a reward for doing so is so small?

So, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

What’s moving current mortgage rates

Retreating recession?

Only a month or two ago, I reckoned we were likely to be in a recession sometime this summer or fall. Of course, I wasn’t certain. But it looked the most probable of the various possible scenarios.

Unfortunately, it now looks much less likely. Most economic data are suggesting the economy is showing surprising resilience.

Why’s it “unfortunate” that a recession seems less imminent? Well, it isn’t, economically. Recessions are nasty.

But a recession virtually always brings lower mortgage rates. And it’s my job to root for those.

So, is a recession totally off the agenda? No, not at all. Economies can turn on a dime in the right circumstances.

But it’s possible we’ll avoid one completely. And, if one does come, it may not be as sharp as looked likely recently.

Inflation

If low mortgage rates and recessions go together like a horse and carriage, low mortgage rates and high inflation go together like a horse and a backfiring truck. You don’t see one close to the other for long.

And inflation continues to be higher than we’d like. True, its rate has dropped a fair amount from its recent highs. But that fall has now stalled and inflation has plateaued.

And mortgage rates have, too. So far this month, the spread between the highest daily mortgage rate (for a conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage) and the lowest has been much smaller than usual.

Slow outlook for mortgage rates

With few signs of either a recession or lower inflation, there’s little in prospect to bring mortgage rates lower.

That could change at any time. But we’ve already had most of this month’s economic reports that could show either the economy (recession) or price rises (inflation) slowing. And the next, which is an inflation report, isn’t due until Jun. 30.

So, the chances are mortgage rates won’t move much over the rest of this month. That’s far from certain. All sorts of unexpected news could emerge that sends them higher or lower. But I doubt much on the calendar will.

Economic reports next week

This week was a blockbuster one for economic reports and events. But the next looks like the opposite.

Only Friday’s purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) for the services and manufacturing sectors might create ripples for mortgage rates. But even they are unlikely to change much.

Indeed, next week’s reports probably won’t have much impact on mortgage rates unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.

• Monday — Markets closed for Juneteenth Day
• Tuesday — June housing starts
• Wednesday — Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to House panel
• Thursday — Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Senate panel. May existing home sales. Plus initial jobless claims for the week ending Jun. 17
• Friday — June “flashes” (initial readings) from S&P of PMIs for the services and manufacturing sectors

It’s a quiet week. Sometimes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimonies on Capitol Hill can have an impact on mortgage rates. But we already know what he’s likely to say following a long news conference he hosted on Wednesday.

Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you

Mortgage interest rates forecast for next week

Absent something extraordinary and unexpected, I doubt mortgage rates will move far next week.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

Mortgage and refinance rates are generally determined by prices in a secondary market (similar to the stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.

And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.

Your part

But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:

1. Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
2. Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
3. Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
4. Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
5. Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?

Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.

Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on your “PITI.” That’s your Principal (pays down the amount you borrowed), Interest (the price of borrowing), (property) Taxes, and (homeowners) Insurance. Our mortgage calculator can help with these.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.

But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.