Mortgage and refinance rates today, Nov. 21, 2022

Peter Warden
Peter Warden
The Mortgage Reports Editor
November 21, 2022 - 6 min read

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates just inched lower last Friday. That left them only imperceptibly higher than they were on Nov. 10, which was the day of the ginormous tumble. That’s such good news.

First thing this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might be unchanged or barely changed. But that won’t necessarily last as the hours pass.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed
Conventional 30 year fixed 6.873% 6.903% Unchanged
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed 5.903% 5.933% Unchanged
Conventional 20 year fixed
Conventional 20 year fixed 6.76% 6.809% +0.02%
Conventional 10 year fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed 6.497% 6.603% Unchanged
30 year fixed FHA
30 year fixed FHA 6.409% 7.188% Unchanged
15 year fixed FHA
15 year fixed FHA 6.084% 6.613% Unchanged
30 year fixed VA
30 year fixed VA 6.216% 6.446% Unchanged
15 year fixed VA
15 year fixed VA 6.282% 6.642% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

I believe that it would take several future events to all fall the right way for mortgage rates in order for them to drop further — or even remain where they are.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady at 3.79%. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were hardly moving soon after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices decreased to $76.43 from $78.21 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices fell to $1,743 from $1,757 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index —inched down to 60 from 61 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Please do read the weekend edition of this report if you’re catching up. It lays out in some detail what’s happening to mortgage rates.

Briefly, on Nov. 10, markets looked at better-than-expected inflation data and concluded that the Federal Reserve would soon reinstate its easy-money policy of low interest rates. That’s why mortgage rates fell precipitously that day in what may be a record one-day tumble.

Ever since, countless top Fed officials and commentators in financial media have swarmed with a single message: Markets shouldn’t believe this nonsense. It will be many months before the Fed even thinks about lowering interest rates.

Things could now go in either of two ways. First, markets could finally get the message and send rates higher soon. Or, secondly, they could wait for the next inflation report on Dec. 1 to see whether or not the Nov. 10 one was an outlier.

What Dec. 1 brings will be hugely important. If that suggests inflation really is cooling quickly, we could see mortgage rates fall further, even though the Fed will still probably not pivot (begin to reduce rates) until well into 2023. But, if it contradicts the Nov. 10 report, mortgage rates might rise, perhaps significantly.

Between then and now, we may see relatively stable mortgage rates as they respond in minor ways to less important economic data.

However, there’s always a chance of markets finally believing the Fed when it says they were wrong to read so much into a single month’s inflation figures. That could push mortgage rates sharply higher Or there’s always a possibility of some piece of hugely important news coming out of left field. That could move them either way.

According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

Freddie’s Nov. 17 report put that same weekly average at 6.61%, sharply down from the previous week’s 7.08%.

Belatedly, from Nov. 17, Freddie has stopped including discount points in its forecasts. It has also moved later the time of day at which it publishes its Thursday reports. And, from now on, we'll be updating this section on Fridays.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/22) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23 and Q3/24).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s forecast appeared on Oct. 10, the MBA’s on Oct. 23 and Freddie’s on Oct. 21.

ForecasterQ4/22Q1/23Q2/23Q3/23
Fannie Mae6.7%6.6% 6.5%6.4%
Freddie Mac6.8%6.6% 6.5%6.4%
MBA6.7%6.2% 5.7%5.5%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive. Personally, I think they’re too optimistic.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.