Mortgage and refinance rates today, Nov. 5, and rate forecast for next week

Peter Warden
Peter Warden
The Mortgage Reports Editor
November 5, 2022 - 6 min read

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates barely moved yesterday. Unfortunately, however, they rose appreciably over the last seven days.

Last week, I managed a rare (and correct) forecast of where mortgage rates would head this week. But that’s something I can’t repeat today. And we’re back to those rates being wholly unpredictable over that period.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed
Conventional 30 year fixed 7.409% 7.44% -0.07%
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed 6.63% 6.66% -0.07%
Conventional 20 year fixed
Conventional 20 year fixed 7.356% 7.409% -0.05%
Conventional 10 year fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed 6.618% 6.697% -0.01%
30 year fixed FHA
30 year fixed FHA 7.001% 7.709% -0.26%
15 year fixed FHA
15 year fixed FHA 6.714% 7.286% -0.1%
30 year fixed VA
30 year fixed VA 6.888% 7.127% -0.05%
15 year fixed VA
15 year fixed VA 6.606% 6.97% -0.02%
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

The Federal Reserve’s report and comments on Wednesday only reinforced my view that mortgage rates are unlikely to fall far (at least for long) for several months.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

What’s moving current mortgage rates

Unfortunately, last week’s Federal Reserve activity panned out pretty much as I predicted. The central bank remains committed to doing what it takes to tame inflation. And that includes hiking interest rates.

When the Fed raises the federal fund rate, almost all interest rates rise in line with it. There’s a direct tie.

Now, it’s true that mortgage rates are different. They’re not directly tied to any other rate. Instead, they’re largely determined by the yield on a type of bond (the mortgage-backed security or MBS) traded on a specialist bond market.

However, the Fed has a huge influence on that market. And we’ve seen mortgage rates rise this year as Fed rate hikes have been implemented.

What’s next?

With Wednesday’s Fed activities out the way, what’s next? Well, there’s a repeat due on Dec. 14. And markets are already focusing on that.

CME’s FedWatch tool puts the probability of a 50-basis-point (0.5%) hike that day at 52% and of another 0.75% increase at 48%. But those will change as the weeks pass.

In the meantime, of course, data in economic reports will move mortgage rates. But reactions to those reports will at least in part be driven by a single question: What impact will these data have on the Fed’s next rate hike?

What to look out for

The reports that are most likely to influence mortgage rates over the coming weeks are those for:

  1. Inflation — Notably the consumer price index (CPI) and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index
  2. Employment — Especially the monthly employment situation report
  3. Growth — Gross domestic product (GDP) revisions

Higher unemployment and lower growth and inflation are likely to be good for mortgage rates. But the opposites of those would probably be bad news for those rates. That would typically be true at all times, but, currently, their influence on the Fed could magnify their effect.

The first of those comes next Thursday in the shape of the CPI report for October. And at least one of each are scheduled before those Dec. 14 Fed events.

All this leaves me pessimistic about mortgage rates over the next few months. In its communications on Wednesday, the Fed noted that “recent data indicate modest economic growth, a very tight labor market, and elevated inflation,” to quote a Comerica Bank e-newsletter yesterday.

Of course, there’s always hope that future figures will become more friendly to mortgage rates. But I fear it would take an exceptionally sharp turn to divert the Fed from its rate-hiking path before next spring. And yesterday’s employment situation report suggests good news is unlikely anytime soon.

Economic reports next week

Next week, it’s all about Thursday’s consumer price index. There’s really very little else to worry about. Oh, and markets are closed on Friday for the Veterans Day holiday.

That important report is shown below in bold. Others are unlikely to move mortgage rates unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.

  • Tuesday — October small business index from the National Federation of Independent Business
  • Thursday — Consumer price index (CPI) for October. Plus weekly new claims for unemployment insurance to Nov. 5
  • Friday — Bond markets closed for Veterans Day holiday. Mortgage rates shouldn’t move and we won’t be publishing our usual daily report. However, the consumer sentiment report for November should appear that day

Thursday’s the big day next week.

Mortgage interest rates forecast for next week

Unfortunately, I have to revert to my recent default position and fail to provide a forecast for where mortgage rates will move next week. Things are simply too volatile and unpredictable to make a judgment.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

Mortgage and refinance rates are generally determined by prices in a secondary market (similar to the stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.

And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.

Your part

But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:

  1. Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
  2. Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
  3. Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
  4. Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
  5. Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?

Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.

Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on your “PITI.” That’s your Principal (pays down the amount you borrowed), Interest (the price of borrowing), (property) Taxes, and (homeowners) Insurance. Our mortgage calculator can help with these.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.

But there are other potential costs. So you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that higher than your straight mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2021

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.