Mortgage and refinance rates today, Oct. 5, 2022

Peter Warden
Peter Warden
The Mortgage Reports Editor
October 5, 2022 - 7 min read

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates edged lower yesterday. So far, it’s been a good week for those rates. And they’re roughly back to where they were a week ago.

By approaching 10 a.m. (ET) this morning, it was looking as if mortgage rates today might rise. But, as always, that could change as the hours pass.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed
Conventional 30 year fixed 6.804% 6.84% Unchanged
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed 6.12% 6.157% -0.19%
Conventional 20 year fixed
Conventional 20 year fixed 6.939% 6.991% -0.07%
Conventional 10 year fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed 5.976% 6.093% -0.03%
30 year fixed FHA
30 year fixed FHA 6.836% 7.583% +0.03%
15 year fixed FHA
15 year fixed FHA 6.992% 7.267% -0.02%
30 year fixed VA
30 year fixed VA 6.235% 6.465% -0.18%
15 year fixed VA
15 year fixed VA 6.125% 6.483% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

The last week has been relatively benign for mortgage rates. But I see little reason to believe they’re at a turning point. And I’m not expecting significant and enduring falls anytime soon. Let’s hope I’m proved wrong.

Still, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 3.75% from 3.70%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) And that was climbing sharply this morning. More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were falling soon after opening. (Sometimes good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices increased to $87.08 from $85.70 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices edged down to $1,715 from $1,719 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — edged up to 31 from 29 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to rise. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Last month, rates for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) averaged 6.11%, according to Freddie Mac’s archives. In the previous September, one year earlier, they averaged 2.9%.

It’s been an near-relentless climb, with rates falling modestly and briefly in only July and August. In September, they surged again, reaching new highs for the last 14 years.

For most of those 12 months, experts have been predicting that these rates must be close to topping out and would fall soon. But, so far, that’s not happened.

Might it soon? Of course, that’s possible. But I doubt it’s likely for as long as the Federal Reserve continues to hike its rate (and therefore most others) or while inflation remains stubbornly high. And both those conditions look likely to survive into 2023.

Naturally, there will be periods of falls as well as rises between now and the new year. They’re a constant feature of markets. But I doubt the falls will outweigh the rises by much (if at all) over the next three months.

Sorry to be so pessimistic. I’m hoping to be proved wrong. But I believe the chances of my being right are stronger.

Watch out for Friday!

Friday brings September’s official employment situation report. And that’s more than capable of moving mortgage rates.

Normally, a higher-than-expected number of new jobs or an appreciable increase in average hourly earnings would send mortgage rates higher. Conversely, lower-than-expected figures might pull those rates lower.

That’s likely to apply on Friday, too. But markets have, in recent months, occasionally responded counterintuitively to economic reports.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background about mortgage rates generally.

According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

Freddie’s Sep. 29 report put that same weekly average at 6.7% (with 0.9 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 6.29%.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.9 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote. Belatedly, Freddie says it plans to stop including discount points in its forecasts later this year.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining two quarters of 2022 (Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first two quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s forecast appeared on Sep. 21 and the MBA’s on Sep. 20. Freddie’s came out around Jul. 21. But it now releases forecasts only quarterly. So, its figures soon turn stale.

Fannie Mae5.4%5.7% 5.7%5.6%
Freddie Mac5.5%5.4% 5.2%5.2%
MBA5.5%5.5% 5.3%5.3%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive. Personally, I think they’re too optimistic.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.