Mortgage Rates Ease On Presidents Day | Today, February 16, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates held relatively steady over Presidents Day weekend, dropping a few basis points from Friday.

Today’s mix of economic indicators presents a balanced outlook, with stable Treasury yields and moderate commodity movements likely keeping rate pressures neutral in the near term.

With rates hovering near three-year lows, see if it makes sense to refinance or tap into your home equity. For hopeful home buyers, see what advice experts have for 2026 and if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more lenient loan types.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached %.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to %.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged %.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Dan Cooper, capital markets and servicing EVP at Cornerstone Home Lending

“Mortgage rates are expected to remain largely unchanged throughout February, as persistently higher-than-desired inflation continues to be offset by a slowly weakening — yet still resilient — labor market.”

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes remained unchanged at 4.052%. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) Mortgage rates typically follow these Treasury bond yields. The current yield is below the 52-week high of 4.632% but above the low of 3.864%, suggesting a neutral environment for rate movements.
• U.S. stock markets were closed for Presidents Day. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they often sell bonds, pushing prices down and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. Today’s modest movements suggest limited impact on mortgage pricing.
• Oil prices increased to $63.33 from $62.89 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Higher energy prices can signal inflationary pressure and future economic activity.
• Gold prices decreased to $4,997.20 from $5,046.30 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. This decline suggests reduced economic anxiety.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index held at 36. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) Lower readings, in “Fear” territory, typically support lower rates as investors favor bonds over stocks.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Mortgage rates are expected to hold steady around 6% this week, with several economic forces keeping them in a narrow band. Inflation trends continue to influence the outlook, as January’s consumer price index fell to 2.4%, moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. However, labor market strength remains a countervailing force—January added over 100,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.3%, suggesting the Fed may hold off on rate cuts at its March 17 meeting.

Housing demand tells a complicated story. Despite rates hovering near three-year lows, home sales dropped 8.4% month-over-month in January, reflecting buyer caution amid economic uncertainty. National debt levels also add upward pressure, as increased government borrowing competes for available capital.

Industry experts anticipate little movement this week. With inflation improving but still above target and the labor market showing resilience, rates are likely to remain between 6% and 6.5% for the foreseeable future, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s February 12 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.09%, dropping two basis points (0.02%) from the previous week. Rates remain near three-year lows, with purchase and refinance applications rising year-over-year. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for 2026.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on January 13 and the MBA updated theirs on January 21.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ