Mortgage and refinance rates today, Sep. 30, 2022

Peter Warden
Peter Warden
The Mortgage Reports Editor
September 30, 2022 - 7 min read

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates climbed appreciably yesterday. The rise was dwarfed by Tuesday’s enormous fall. But, even so, those rates were higher on Thursday evening than they were on Monday morning.

Mortgage rates look likely to fall today. That may be down to a relatively benign inflation report this morning. Just remember, markets sometimes change their minds about data after a few hours. So, don’t bank on anything.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed
Conventional 30 year fixed 6.913% 6.945% +0.18%
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed 6.41% 6.447% +0.09%
Conventional 20 year fixed
Conventional 20 year fixed 7.262% 7.313% +0.27%
Conventional 10 year fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed 6.137% 6.255% +0.17%
30 year fixed FHA
30 year fixed FHA 7.015% 7.701% +0.14%
15 year fixed FHA
15 year fixed FHA 7.083% 7.359% +0.59%
30 year fixed VA
30 year fixed VA 6.625% 6.858% +0.15%
15 year fixed VA
15 year fixed VA 6.125% 6.483% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Nobody knows what will happen to mortgage rates over the coming days, weeks and months. But my gut feeling is that they won’t fall far — at least for long.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 3.70% from 3.79%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were falling soon after opening. (Sometimes good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices decreased to $79.30 from $81.82 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices nudged higher to $1,676 from $1,662 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — inched up to 17 from 16 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to fall. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

The crisis in the United Kingdom seems to have settled down. However, the new government there appears to have a tin ear when it comes to addressing the concerns of either markets or the electorate.

To markets, it’s saying everything is going to plan and the recent disruption has nothing to do with its “fiscal event” last Friday, which is transparently untrue. And the electorate yesterday delivered its verdict, as reported by Reuters:

Britain’s opposition Labour party has surged to a 33-point lead over the ruling Conservatives, according to a YouGov poll on Thursday, after days of chaos in financial markets triggered by the government’s planned tax cuts.

If the Bank of England (Britain’s equivalent of our Federal Reserve) were not to have intervened, the situation might now be much worse. But the BoE says its role will last until only Oct. 14. So, it’s providing just a temporary field dressing. And, if the British Government doesn’t come up with a credible fix before that date, its crisis might easily begin again to affect American bond markets and mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, those US bond markets remain shellshocked from the trans-Atlantic mayhem. And they may therefore be exposed to other sorts of vulnerability and volatility.

Today’s inflation report

At the start of this week, I thought the last few days’ mortgage rates might prove volatile as investors laid bets on the outcome of today’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) report for August. That view was more reasonable then — before the UK’s problems emerged — than it sounds now.

The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation and may well play a role in deciding how big a rate hike the central bank imposes on Nov. 2.

Markets will already have priced in forecasts for the index from economists and analysts. So, it’s usually how far the actual figures stray from those forecasts that affects bond prices and mortgage rates.

Lower-than-expected inflation figures would normally push mortgage rates lower while higher-than-expected ones might push those rates higher. But markets have been in a weird place for months and all too often react counterintuitively to data. And their initial reaction sometimes doesn’t last long.

Overnight, MarketWatch reported its consensus forecasts at 0.5% for the core monthly index and 4.7% for the core year-on-year number, both higher than in July. In the event, those actual numbers this morning were 0.4% and 4.7% respectively. That should be good news for mortgage rates. Let’s hope markets stick to their early response.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background about mortgage rates generally.

According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

Freddie’s Sep. 29 report put that same weekly average at 6.7% (with 0.9 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 6.29%. That Thursday report won’t have caught the previous day’s sharp fall.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.9 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote. Belatedly, Freddie says it plans to stop including discount points in its forecasts later this year.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining two quarters of 2022 (Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first two quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s forecast appeared on Sep. 21 and the MBA’s on Sep. 20. Freddie’s came out around Jul. 21. But it now releases forecasts only quarterly. So, its figures soon turn stale.

Fannie Mae5.4%5.7% 5.7%5.6%
Freddie Mac5.5%5.4% 5.2%5.2%
MBA5.5%5.5% 5.3%5.3%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive. Personally, I think they’re too optimistic.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.