Mortgage Rates Face Modest Upward Pressure | Today, May 4, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage borrowers should expect a little upward pressure today: the 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.396%, up 2.4 basis points from 4.372%, while WTI crude oil rose $1.69 to $103.4 a barrel, even with Freddie Mac’s average 30-year rate last at 6.3%. Stocks were flat, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down 0.00%, while CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slipped to 66.1 from 66.6 and gold fell $30 to $4,584.7 an ounce, so this looks more like a modest firming move than a broad rate shock.

The next tests come quickly: Factory Orders is due at 10:00 a.m. ET today, New York Fed President John Williams speaks at 12:50 p.m., and tomorrow brings New Home Sales, the ISM Services Index and remarks from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman at 10:00 a.m. Headlines tying Warren Buffett to inflation concerns and Jay Powell to the Fed keep attention on inflation and policy sensitivity, but for borrowers the practical takeaway is simple: watch today’s data and Fed commentary for small changes that could nudge mortgage pricing higher or lower.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.391%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.744%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.589%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.396% from 4.372% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Mixed for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $103.4 from $101.71 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $4,584.7 from $4,614.70 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 66.1 from 66.6 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greed” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week starts with a fairly calm market tone, but the early bond move points to a little pressure on mortgage rates today. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.396% from 4.372%, and WTI crude oil climbed to $103.40 per barrel from $101.71, two moves that can lean rate-negative for borrowers. Gold slipped to $4,584.70 from $4,614.70, stocks were flat across the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index eased to 66.1 from 66.6, still in greed territory. Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year average was 6.3%.

Monday’s calendar is light but still worth watching. Factory Orders are due at 10:00 a.m. ET, and that report can move rates if business demand comes in much stronger or weaker than expected because it feeds the broader growth picture. Then New York Fed President John Williams speaks at 12:50 p.m. ET. Any fresh comments on inflation, labor market cooling or the timing of future rate cuts could move Treasury yields and, by extension, mortgage pricing.

Tuesday brings a busier stretch at 10:00 a.m. ET. New Home Sales and the ISM Services Index are both scheduled for release then, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is also set to speak at 10:00 a.m. ET. For mortgage shoppers, ISM Services may be the bigger market mover because services inflation has been a stubborn piece of the Fed story. New Home Sales matters more directly to housing demand and builder activity, though it usually has a smaller effect on rates unless the number surprises in a big way.

The broader setup for the week is still one of waiting for harder economic evidence and more Fed color. That helps explain why markets look steady even with Treasury yields and oil moving up this morning. News attention is also circling back to inflation and the Fed, with fresh coverage tied to Warren Buffett’s comments on inflation concerns and Jay Powell. If this week’s data or Fed remarks revive worries that inflation will stay sticky, mortgage rates could edge higher again.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s May 4 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.3%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.