Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Amid Fed Chair Headlines | Today, June 29, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates look steady today. The 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.386%, down 0.6 basis points from 4.392%, and Freddie Mac’s 30-year rate came in at 6.49%, which points to little change for borrowers shopping this morning.

Bond moves were modest, and the broader market also leaned cautious rather than disorderly. The Dow fell 0.09%, the S&P 500 fell 0.05%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.24%, while CNN’s Fear & Greed Index came in at 24.8 in extreme fear, down 0.8 points from 25.6. WTI crude oil rose to $70.03 per barrel from $69.81, while gold slipped to $4,058.3 per ounce from $4,058.4, reinforcing the sense that rates are holding a stable tone instead of making a sharp move.

The main headline risk is Fed leadership news. Reports on Fed Chair Warsh speaking at the European Central Bank forum and on how Warsh has begun to change the Fed could shape rate expectations even if markets are quiet for now. Borrowers should also watch this week’s high-impact data, including Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Jobless Claims and the ISM Manufacturing Index on Wednesday, and Friday’s Employment Situation, since those reports are the likeliest catalysts for the next meaningful rate move.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.556%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.926%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.832%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Any specific rate figures above reflect this expert’s personal opinion and forecast. They are illustrative only, are not an offer or commitment to lend, and are not an advertised rate. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.386% from 4.392% (Good for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes dropped this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $70.03 from $69.81 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $4,058.3 from $4,058.40 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 24.8 from 25.6 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Extreme Fear” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week starts with rates in a holding pattern. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key guide for mortgage pricing, was at 4.386% early Monday, down from 4.392%, while stocks were softer and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slipped to 24.8 from 25.6, still in extreme fear. Oil edged up to $70.03 per barrel from $69.81, gold was nearly flat at $4,058.3 an ounce from $4,058.4, and that mix points to a market waiting for fresh direction rather than pushing mortgage rates sharply one way or the other.

Monday’s wild card is the Fed angle. Borrowers and bond traders are tracking headlines tied to “Federal Reserve Chair Warsh Speaks at European Central Bank Forum” and “How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed,” with any signal on inflation, rate cuts or the central bank’s next steps capable of moving Treasuries quickly. If those comments read hawkish, mortgage rates could firm up. If they suggest more room to ease, lenders could get some relief.

The calendar picks up Tuesday with Consumer Confidence at 10:00 a.m. ET, a high-impact report that can shift rate expectations if it changes the read on household spending and the economy’s momentum. Wednesday is packed: MBA Mortgage Applications at 7:00 a.m. ET for a read on borrower demand, Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. ET, the ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. ET. For rates, the biggest items there are claims and ISM. A softer labor or factory picture would tend to help bonds, while stronger data could pressure mortgage pricing.

The week’s main event comes Thursday with the Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. ET. That is usually the most market-moving release on the schedule because it can reset expectations for the Fed in one shot. A cooler payrolls print or weaker wage growth would likely support lower Treasury yields and steadier mortgage rates. A hot report would do the opposite. For now, with Freddie Mac’s 30-year average mortgage rate last at 6.49%, this week looks set to turn on whether the data confirms a slowing economy or shows more staying power than bond investors want to see.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s June 29 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.49%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.