Mortgage and refinance rates today, July 19, 2022

Peter Warden
Peter Warden
The Mortgage Reports Editor
July 19, 2022 - 7 min read

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates inched higher yesterday. But the increase was too small to bother most people.

Key markets were barely moving first thing. And mortgage rates today may be unchanged or barely changed. However, we all know how quickly these things can alter as the hours pass.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed
Conventional 30 year fixed 5.915% 5.951% -0.01%
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed 5.03% 5.088% -0.02%
Conventional 20 year fixed
Conventional 20 year fixed 5.784% 5.838% +0.06%
Conventional 10 year fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed 5.228% 5.334% +0.16%
30 year fixed FHA
30 year fixed FHA 5.943% 6.674% +0.24%
15 year fixed FHA
15 year fixed FHA 5.253% 5.741% Unchanged
30 year fixed VA
30 year fixed VA 5.314% 5.536% Unchanged
15 year fixed VA
15 year fixed VA 5.191% 5.563% +0.03%
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Mortgage rates are still moving up and down, though generally less sharply than they were doing in June. After most of those ups and downs cancel each other out, there remains a very slight upward trend.

So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term must remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady at 2.98%. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices were close to steady, increasing to $101.80 from $101.75 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices edged down to $1,712 from $1,717 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — nudged up to 35 from 32 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Might recession fears overtake inflation fears soon, allowing mortgage rates to fall for a while? They could do, though we’re not there yet.

The Federal Reserve is still hoping to avoid a US recession by slowing the economy through interest hikes in a Goldilocks way. Not too hot by slamming on the brakes. Not too cool by being timid and failing to stem inflation. Just right: eliminating inflation without strangling economic growth.

But there’s a hidden issue here that could foil its plans. The higher the Fed raises US interest rates, the more foreigners want to place their money in America. And that makes the dollar stronger against other currencies.

A strong dollar makes life tough in emerging economies and even among some competitor nations. That’s because, globally, most commodities (including oil) are traded in dollars. When their currencies are weak, it costs them a lot more to buy the dollars needed to purchase essential imported goods and materials.

The euro recently reached parity with the dollar and remains only slightly higher. At a time when the continent is facing acute natural gas and oil shortages owing to Russia’s war in Ukraine, the European Union may soon have a shrinking economy.

Warnings from Asia

You can see the strength of the dollar already playing out with dire consequences in emerging nations. An extreme example is a 22-million-strong country in South Asia:

Colombo, Sri Lanka (CNN) — Sri Lanka is “bankrupt,” Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said Tuesday, as the country suffers its worst financial crisis in decades, leaving millions struggling to buy food, medicine and fuel.

-- CNN, "Sri Lanka is ‘bankrupt,’ Prime Minister says," Jul. 6, 2022

More seriously from an economic standpoint, China recently unveiled its weakest growth figures since the start of the pandemic, though the Fed’s role in that is likely to be small.

What we can see is a world economy on the brink of a recession. And, if that happens in as scary a way as looks possible, the Fed can forget Goldilocks. Globalization means the US economy would be affected, too.

We’re not there yet

Of course, that’s only one possible scenario. And we’re still some way off a potential global meltdown.

In the meantime, inflation remains arguably the No. 1 issue for Americans and the Fed. And, as long as that’s the case, the chances of sustained and worthwhile falls in mortgage rates are small.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.

Recent trends — updated today

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Rates then bumbled along, moving little for the following eight or nine months. But they began rising noticeably that September. Unfortunately, they’ve been mostly shooting up since the start of 2022, although May and June were kinder months.

Freddie’s Jul. 14 report puts that same weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.51% (with 0.8 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 5.3%.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.8 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on Jun. 16, and the MBA’s on Jun. 10. Freddie’s were released on Apr. 18. But it now updates its figures only quarterly, so they’re already looking stale.

ForecasterQ2/22Q3/22Q4/22Q1/23
Fannie Mae5.1%5.0% 5.0%5.0%
Freddie Mac4.8%4.8% 5.0%5.0%
MBA5.1%5.1% 5.0%5.0%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. Recent events certainly make them look that way.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.