Mortgage Rates Face Upward Pressure | Today, September 10, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

The 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.879% early Thursday, up 6.5 basis points from 4.814%, a meaningful market move that points to upward pressure on mortgage rates today. That contrasts with Freddie Mac’s latest 30-year average of 6.71%, which can lag live bond-market shifts borrowers may see from lenders.

The broader tone was cautious: WTI crude climbed $3.17 to $98.89, the Dow fell 0.77%, the S&P 500 fell 0.48%, the Nasdaq fell 0.64%, and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slipped to 36.3 from 39.5, still in fear territory. Taken together, those moves suggest rate sentiment could stay jumpy through the day.

What could move mortgage rates next? Jobless Claims and PPI-Final Demand both hit at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by Existing Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET, giving borrowers several chances for intraday volatility and another reason to watch lender pricing closely.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.851%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 6.216%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.896%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Any specific rate figures above reflect this expert’s personal opinion and forecast. They are illustrative only, are not an offer or commitment to lend, and are not an advertised rate. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.879% from 4.814% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes dropped this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $98.89 from $95.72 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices decreased to $4,412.2 from $4,440.20 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 36.3 from 39.5 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Fear” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week starts with a clearer warning from the bond market than from the consumer-rate headlines. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.879% from 4.814%, a 6.5-basis-point jump, according to Yahoo Finance. That kind of move tends to push mortgage pricing higher, even with Google News carrying borrower-facing headlines such as “Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Thursday, September 10, 2026: Rates fall back” and “Mortgage rates today, Sept. 10, 2026.” Freddie Mac’s 30-year average was last at 6.71%, per FRED, but daily lender sheets can react faster than weekly survey data.

Tuesday’s calendar was lighter but still worth watching for rate clues. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came out at 6:00 a.m. ET, followed by Consumer Credit at 3:00 p.m. ET, both listed by Econoday as medium-impact reports. Neither is usually a top-tier mortgage mover on its own, but traders use them to gauge business sentiment and household borrowing appetite early in the week.

Wednesday brought MBA Mortgage Applications at 7:00 a.m. ET, another medium-impact release. That report gives a read on how borrowers are responding to prevailing rates, especially refinance demand. By then, broader market tone had already turned more defensive: the Dow fell 0.77%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.48% and the Nasdaq lost 0.64%, while CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slipped to 36.3 from 39.5, staying in fear territory. Oil also moved the wrong way for inflation-sensitive bonds, with WTI crude up $3.17 to $98.89 a barrel, while gold fell $28.0 to $4412.2 an ounce, all per Yahoo Finance.

Thursday is the key day for mortgage shoppers. At 8:30 a.m. ET, markets get both Jobless Claims and PPI-Final Demand, each tagged high impact by Econoday, followed by Existing Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET. PPI matters because producer-price pressure can feed into inflation expectations and Treasury yields; claims matter because labor-market strength can keep the Fed wary of easing too quickly. Existing Home Sales is housing-specific and can shape rate sentiment if it shows how much high borrowing costs are biting.

The setup for today is straightforward: bond yields are rising, stocks are weaker, oil is higher and fear is building. That is a tougher mix for mortgage rates than the softer tone in some consumer coverage suggests. Borrowers floating a rate should pay close attention to the morning data and to whether the 10-year yield holds near 4.879% or pushes higher.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s September 10 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.71%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.