Mortgage Rates Rise Amid Treasury Pressure | Today, September 4, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage borrowers face upward pressure today: the 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.812%, up 0.056 percentage points, or 5.6 basis points, from 4.756%, and one major rate roundup is already framed as “Rates Move Up.” That Treasury move is meaningful enough to point to firmer mortgage pricing, even if lender changes don’t all land in lockstep.

Coverage is mixed, though. One headline pointed to “small downward fluctuations,” while another said ARM rates are continuing to surge ahead of the jobs report; Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year survey came in at 6.71%, but no day-over-day change was available there.

Broader markets leaned more risk-on, with the Dow up 1.18%, the S&P 500 up 1.06%, and the Nasdaq up 1.40%, while CNN’s Fear & Greed Index rose to 44.8 from 33.0. But the 10-year yield still climbed, gold also rose to $4,514.0 an ounce, and Fed governor Christopher Waller headlines muddied the outlook for a possible rate hike later this month after a week that included high-impact ISM manufacturing, factory orders and jobless claims data. For mortgage shoppers, that leaves rates vulnerable to more day-to-day swings and tilts the near-term risk to the upside.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.802%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 6.171%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 6.375%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Any specific rate figures above reflect this expert’s personal opinion and forecast. They are illustrative only, are not an offer or commitment to lend, and are not an advertised rate. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.812% from 4.756% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes rose this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices decreased to $90.42 from $92.23 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices increased to $4,514.0 from $4,484.90 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 44.8 from 33.0 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Fear” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week’s calendar started Tuesday with Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaking at 9:05 a.m. ET, followed by the ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET. For mortgage shoppers, ISM was the bigger scheduled market driver because factory activity can shift growth and inflation expectations quickly, which in turn affects Treasury yields. Wednesday brought the MBA Mortgage Applications report at 7:00 a.m. ET, then Factory Orders at 10:00 a.m. ET and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. ET. Factory data matters because stronger demand can keep pressure on yields, while oil feeds into inflation thinking.

Thursday’s key release was weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. ET, one of the market’s most reliable labor readings between monthly payroll reports. Labor data has extra weight when traders are trying to judge how much room the Fed has to stay restrictive. That backdrop got murkier this week after coverage of Fed Gov. Christopher Waller’s comments pointed to a less-settled outlook for a possible rate hike later this month.

By Friday morning, the clearest market signal for mortgage rates was coming from bonds, not the mixed consumer-rate headlines. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.812%, up 5.6 basis points from 4.756%, a meaningful move and one that usually points to upward pressure on mortgage pricing. That stands out against outside coverage that ranged from “Mortgage Rates Today: September 4, 2026 – Rates Move Up” to “Mortgage rates today, Sept. 4, 2026: Small downward fluctuations” and “Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Friday, September 4, 2026: ARM rates continue to surge ahead of jobs report.”

Other markets were less uniform. Stocks rallied, with the Dow up 1.18%, the S&P 500 up 1.06% and the Nasdaq up 1.40%, while CNN’s Fear & Greed Index improved to 44.8 from 33.0, still in fear territory. WTI crude oil fell $1.81 to $90.42 per barrel, which could ease some inflation pressure at the margin, but gold also climbed $29.1 to $4,514.0 an ounce. Taken together, the crosscurrents explain the mixed commentary, but borrowers watching today’s rate direction should pay closest attention to the jump in the 10-year yield. Freddie Mac’s latest 30-year PMMS stands at 6.71%, and today’s bond move suggests lenders could lean higher from there.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s September 4 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.71%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.