Mortgage Rates Ease Amid Treasury Yield Drop | Today, May 22, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rate pressure improved Friday as the 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.55%, down 7.5 basis points from 4.625%, and broader coverage pointed to mortgage and refinance rates finally moving lower. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average most recently came in at 6.51%, and the Treasury move supports the case for better borrower pricing if that bond rally holds.

Cross-market signals backed that move: WTI crude came in at $95.98 per barrel, down $4.96 from $100.94, stocks were flat, and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slipped to 58.0 from 60.8. That mix leans disinflation-friendly, which tends to help mortgage rates.

The complication is that Fed leadership headlines are pulling the other way. Reports on Kevin Warsh and a rising inflation threat landed as gold climbed to $4,534.3 an ounce from $4,513.0, a reminder that even with rates moving lower today, the path down may stay uneven for borrowers.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.652%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.99%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.827%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.55% from 4.625% (Good for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Mixed for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices decreased to $95.98 from $100.94 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices increased to $4,534.3 from $4,513.00 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 58.0 from 60.8 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greed” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week, the clearest rate signal came from the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.55% from 4.625%, a 7.5-basis-point drop that gives mortgage rates room to ease. Oil also backed off hard, with WTI crude falling to $95.98 a barrel from $100.94, which helps on the inflation side if the move holds. Gold rose to $4,534.3 from $4,513.0, and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slipped to 58.0 from 60.8, still in greed territory. Stocks were flat on the day, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all unchanged.

Sunday’s calendar started with Cheryl Venable speaking at 8:30 a.m. ET. Fed speaking events do not carry the same weight as payrolls or CPI, but this week they mattered more because markets were already trying to sort out what a change in Fed leadership could mean for inflation and rate policy.

Monday brought a heavier slate. Christopher Waller was scheduled to speak at 8:00 a.m. ET, followed by Anna Paulson at 7:00 p.m. ET and Cheryl Venable again at 7:45 p.m. ET. Those appearances landed as headlines focused on the Fed’s direction, including “Warsh to Take Charge of Fed Facing Rising Inflation Threat” and “Kevin Warsh: Trump ally at the Federal Reserve?” For mortgage borrowers, that mix cuts both ways: lower Treasury yields are helpful right now, but any shift in expectations toward stickier inflation or a more hawkish Fed can keep mortgage rate declines limited.

Wednesday’s key scheduled release was the MBA Mortgage Applications report at 7:00 a.m. ET, followed by Michael Barr speaking at 9:15 a.m. ET. The applications data gives a read on how borrowers are reacting to rate moves in real time, especially on the refinance side. Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year average mortgage rate was 6.51%, according to FRED, so any sign that Treasury yields keep moving lower would be welcome news for buyers and owners waiting for a better entry point.

The broad takeaway for this week is that bond-market momentum improved enough to support lower mortgage pricing, and Friday’s rate headlines reflected that shift. Still, Fed leadership stories kept a layer of uncertainty over the outlook. For now, borrowers got the part that matters most day to day: a meaningful drop in the 10-year yield, which is usually the better clue for where mortgage rates can go next.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s May 22 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.51%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.