Mortgage Rates Grow Ahead of Fed Meeting | Today, March 17, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates edged higher this morning, continuing their rise from recent three-year lows as inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions impact markets.

While Treasury yields show modest easing, elevated energy prices and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance ahead of this week’s policy meeting may keep borrowing costs under pressure.

Rates remain below 2023 peaks but are drifting from February’s favorable levels. Consider refinancing or tapping home equity. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached %.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to %.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged %.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Rebekah Scott, director of investment real estate at Atlas Real Estate

“The most important thing consumers should understand is that we’re experiencing a rare window of opportunity. If you’ve been waiting for conditions to improve, they have. Not dramatically, but meaningfully.”

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. These movements are based on the previous day’s settlement prices.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.206% from 4.224%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields. With the 10-year yield currently sitting near the middle of its 52-week range of 3.864% to 4.632%, this modest decline offers some relief for prospective borrowers.
• Major stock indexes were higher this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they often sell bonds, pushing those prices down and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship.
• Oil prices increased to $94.67 from $93.50 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. Elevated oil prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions continue to fuel inflation concerns.
• Gold prices increased to $5,022.20 from $5,002.20 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall, because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index remained at 22 out of 100, unchanged from the previous day. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Mortgage rates face pressure from multiple directions this week, with the Federal Reserve meeting taking center stage alongside persistent geopolitical tensions. The 10-year Treasury yield has been trending upward recently, reflecting investor concerns about inflation risks tied to elevated oil prices from the Iran conflict. This upward movement in Treasury yields typically translates to higher mortgage rates.

The Fed’s policy meeting this week will be closely monitored, though policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady. What matters more to mortgage borrowers is the commentary that follows—any signals suggesting an extended pause in rate cuts could push mortgage rates higher. Meanwhile, upcoming February inflation and employment data will help shape market expectations about the Fed’s next moves.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains the wild card. The Iran conflict has disrupted oil markets, stoking inflation fears that override otherwise softer economic signals. As one mortgage expert noted, higher oil prices fuel inflation, which is “the enemy to bonds and mortgage rates.” Gold prices have also been climbing, reflecting broader market anxiety.

For borrowers, this environment means continued volatility. Rates are expected to remain in the 6% range for 30-year fixed mortgages, though the geopolitical situation could push them higher if tensions escalate further.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s March 12 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.11%, rising 11 basis points (0.11%) from the previous week. Rates remain near three-year lows, with purchase and refinance applications rising year-over-year. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for 2026.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on February 12 and the MBA updated theirs on February 17.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ