Mortgage and refinance rates today, Oct. 4, 2021

Peter Warden
The Mortgage Reports editor

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates fell again last Friday. But we’re only back to rises and falls more or less canceling each other out. And it’s too soon for optimism about sustained decreases.

Indeed, first thing this morning, mortgage rates today look likely to rise. But with so much volatility at the moment, there are no guarantees.

Find and lock a low rate (Dec 4th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed
Conventional 30 year fixed 3.065% 3.081% -0.02%
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed 2.415% 2.442% Unchanged
Conventional 20 year fixed
Conventional 20 year fixed 2.878% 2.914% Unchanged
Conventional 10 year fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed 2.347% 2.405% Unchanged
30 year fixed FHA
30 year fixed FHA 3.008% 3.765% Unchanged
15 year fixed FHA
15 year fixed FHA 2.464% 3.107% Unchanged
5/1 ARM FHA
5/1 ARM FHA 2.34% 3.051% Unchanged
30 year fixed VA
30 year fixed VA 2.848% 3.038% Unchanged
15 year fixed VA
15 year fixed VA 2.699% 3.048% Unchanged
5/1 ARM VA
5/1 ARM VA 2.477% 2.304% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (Dec 4th, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

I’d still wager on mortgage rates resuming their rises very soon. But that’s not a certainty.

And there’s a glimmer of hope on Friday when a crucial economic report is due to be published (more below). That just might be enough to push these rates lower, though probably only if the report’s disastrously bad.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time last Friday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 1.51% from 1.48%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were mixed soon after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower
  • Oil prices climbed to $77.25 from $75.15 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
  • Gold prices fell to $1,752 from $1,758 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed indexheld steady at 27 out of 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to rise. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Dec 4th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

The big question for mortgage rates this week was summed up in a Financial Times headline this morning: “Will US job numbers pave the way for Fed tapering?”

The monthly, official employment situation report is due out on Friday. And there’s a lot riding on it.

If it’s good, OK or a bit bad, the Fed will likely plow ahead with its plans to wind down (“taper”) its cheap-money policies from Nov. 3. And those have been keeping mortgage rates artificially low for the last 18 months. So tapering will almost inevitably lead to appreciably higher mortgage rates.

But, if that report’s truly terrible, the programs behind those Fed policies might survive for another month or two.

So a disastrous employment report might drag those rates lower. But any other sort is likely to push them upward.

Other threats to lower mortgage rates.

In last Saturday’s weekend edition of this article, I laid out the six main concerns that investors currently face. Click the link for details.

Overall, those six (plus a seventh, which was the employment situation report) seem to me to point to higher mortgage rates in the short, medium and long term. And rises may be significant and sustained.

Of course, it’s never impossible that those rates will fall instead of rise. But it would likely take some terrible event to cause that. And one of those is less likely to arise than the existing pressures that look set to propel them higher.

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose moderately.

However, from April, those rises were mostly replaced by falls, though typically small ones. More recently, we had a couple of months when those rates barely moved. But, unfortunately, September brought some sharp rises.

Freddie’s Sept. 30 report puts that weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 3.01% (with 0.7 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 2.88%. Personally, I’m surprised that increase was so modest because other sources suggest a sharper one.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3/21 and Q4/21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1/22 and Q2/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Sept. 20 and the MBA’s on Sept. 22. But Freddie’s were last refreshed on July 15 because it now publishes these figures only quarterly. And its forecast is looking seriously stale.

Forecaster Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 Q2/22
Fannie Mae 2.9% 2.9%  3.0% 3.1%
Freddie Mac 3.3% 3.4%  3.5% 3.6%
MBA 2.8% 3.1%  3.4% 3.6%

However, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.

All these forecasts expect higher mortgage rates soon or soon-ish. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And it may be that Fannie isn’t building in the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its support for mortgage rates while Freddie and the MBA are. Or perhaps Fannie believes tapering will have little impact.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.


Verify your new rate (Dec 4th, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.