Mortgage Rates Drift Down | Today, March 5, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates fell this morning following two straight days of growth.

Today’s economic indicators present a mixed picture, with rising Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions potentially applying upward pressure on rates, while investor concerns about global stability could provide some offsetting support.

With rates at their most attractive levels since 2022, more borrowers find themselves ‘in the money’ for refinancing. See if it makes sense to refinance or tap into your home equity. For hopeful home buyers, check out what advice experts have for 2026 and if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more lenient loan types.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached %.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to %.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged %.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Rebekah Scott, director of investment real estate at Atlas Real Estate

“The most important thing consumers should understand is that we’re experiencing a rare window of opportunity. If you’ve been waiting for conditions to improve, they have. Not dramatically, but meaningfully.”

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. These movements are based on the previous day’s settlement prices.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.139% from 4.104%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields. The current yield is near the middle of its 52-week range of 3.864% to 4.632%, indicating moderate conditions.
• Major stock indexes grew this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.78%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.29%. Investors buying shares often sell bonds, lowering bond prices and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The reverse may occur when indexes fall, though the relationship is imperfect.
• Oil prices increased to $77.06 from $74.66 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices influence inflation and economic activity. The recent rise reflects Middle East tensions, particularly involving Iran.
• Gold prices decreased to $5,119.70 from $5,134.70 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Gold prices tend to rise when investors worry about the economy, which is generally better for rates.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 38 from 37 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down and rates up, while “fearful” ones do the opposite. Lower readings are often better for rates.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Mortgage rates face a pivotal week as markets digest Federal Reserve commentary and critical economic data. Today’s release of FOMC minutes from the late-January meeting will offer clues about policymakers’ thinking on inflation and the timeline for potential rate cuts. Hawkish signals could nudge rates higher, while dovish tones might provide relief.

Friday’s February jobs report takes center stage, with economists expecting around 160,000 new positions. A stronger-than-anticipated reading could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, while weaker numbers might bolster the case for rate cuts later this year. Thursday’s ISM Services PMI will also draw attention as a gauge of inflation pressures in the services sector.

Behind the scenes, mortgage-backed securities spreads remain elevated at roughly 140 basis points above Treasuries, reflecting supply pressures and cautious investor demand. The dollar’s recent strength has attracted foreign capital to U.S. bonds, creating some downward pressure on rates, though upcoming European Central Bank and Bank of England decisions could shift currency dynamics.

With rates hovering near three-year lows around 6.08 percent, the week ahead will test whether this favorable environment can hold or if economic resilience pushes borrowing costs higher.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s February 26 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 5.98%, dropping three basis points (0.03%) from the previous week and reaching the lowest level since September 2022. Rates remain near three-year lows, with purchase and refinance applications rising year-over-year. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for 2026.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on February 12 and the MBA updated theirs on February 17.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ