Mortgage Rates Drift Lower, Fed Chair Chosen | Today, January 30, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates edged slightly lower this morning, continuing their favorable trend near three-year lows.

Today’s economic signals present a mixed outlook, with wholesale inflation data and Kevin Warsh announced as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. That uncertainty potentially creates competing pressures on interest rates in the near-term.

With rates sitting near three year lows, see if it makes sense to refinance or tap into your home equity. For hopeful home buyers, see what advice experts have for 2026 and if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more lenient loan types.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached %.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to %.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged %.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Hector Amendola, president at Panorama Mortgage Group

“There are early signs the housing market is stabilizing. Even modest declines in rates are helping restore buyer confidence, and existing home sales are slowly improving.”

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.259% from 4.240% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates typically follow these Treasury bond yields. While the increase is modest, the yield remains well below its 52-week high of 4.664%, suggesting the recent rise is contained within a broader downward trend.
• Major stock indexes mostly fell lower this morning (Good for mortgage rates). When investors sell shares, they often buy bonds, pushing prices up and decreasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are higher, though this relationship is imperfect.
• Oil prices increased to $65.78 from $65.42 a barrel (Bad for mortgage rates*). Energy prices influence inflation and economic activity. However, oil remains near the lower end of its 52-week range of $54.98 to $78.40, limiting inflationary concerns.
• Gold prices decreased sharply to $5,041.50 from $5,354.80 an ounce (Bad for mortgage rates*). Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. Despite the decline, gold remains well above its 52-week low of $2,802.20.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 59 from 61 out of 100 (Good for mortgage rates). Lower readings suggest “fearful” investors, who often push bond prices up and rates down.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Mortgage rates are expected to remain steady this week, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain its benchmark rate, signaling caution around inflation above the 2% target. The Fed’s upgraded economic outlook from “moderate” to “solid” suggests no immediate rate changes.

Housing market fundamentals also impact rates, as lower demand for home loans may prompt lenders to reduce rates. Additionally, national debt influences borrowing costs, with government borrowing competing with private lending.

Investor sentiment on inflation expectations could introduce modest volatility. Easing price pressures might lower rates, while persistent inflation could keep them elevated. Treasury market movements will reflect these trends, indirectly affecting mortgage pricing.

Industry forecasts predict 30-year fixed rates will stay between 6% and 6.5% in the coming months. The Mortgage Bankers Association anticipates a “somewhat stronger spring housing market” without significant rate changes. Borrowers can expect stability, with rates near three-year lows around 6.17%.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s January 29 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.10%, rising one basis point (0.01%) from the previous week. Rates remain near three-year lows, with purchase and refinance applications rising year-over-year. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for 2026.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on January 13 and the MBA updated theirs on January 21.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ