Mortgage Rates Hold | Today, November 21, 2025

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates mostly held steady while the average 5/1 ARM jumped from yesterday.

Today’s mix of economic indicators look hopeful to put downward pressure on interest rates for house hunters heading into the weekend.

While mortgage rates rose from their recent annual lows, it could still make sense to refinance or tap into your home equity. For hopeful buyers, negotiating can get your rate down and qualifying for financial assistance programs or more lenient loan types lowers your barrier to entry.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.31%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.62%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.65%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com

“Because key economic data are missing or delayed as the government shutdown persists, mortgage rates are likely to settle in a narrow range after this one-time adjustment... One of the best research-backed ways to lower a mortgage rate regardless of market conditions is to shop around among lenders.”

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.068% from 4.127%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes had more growth than loss this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they often sell bonds, pushing those prices down and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices decreased to $57.63 from $59.97 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices decreased to $4,069 from $4,085 an ounce. (Neutral (but moving in a bad direction) for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 7 from 14 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Three economic reports come out today and six Federal Reserve executives speak.

S&P released its “flash” Purchasing Managers’ Index for November. It showed a contrasting four-month high in the services sector (up to 55 from 54.8 in October) and a four-month low in manufacturing (51.9 from 52.5).

“A marked uplift in business confidence about prospects in the year ahead adds to the good news. However, manufacturers reported a worrying combination of slower new orders growth and a record rise in finished goods stock,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P.

“This accumulation of unsold inventory hints at slower factory production expansion in the coming months unless demand revives, which could in turn feed through to lower growth in many service industries. “Furthermore, although jobs continued to be created in November, the rate of hiring continues to be constrained by worries over costs, in turn linked to tariffs. Both input costs and selling prices rose at increased rates in November, which will be of concern to the inflation hawks.”

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped for the fourth straight month to a score of 51 in November from 53.6 in October and 71.8 the year before.

“After the federal shutdown ended, sentiment lifted slightly from its mid-month reading. However, consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes,” said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.

The Census Bureau’s* delayed wholesale trade report showed a flattened $907.9 billion in inventories for August compared to $908 billion in July.

*In August 2025, President Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner following a weak jobs report.

For the Fed, New York President John Williams gave opening remarks at the Central Bank of Chile Centennial Conference in Santiago at 7:30am ET. Boston President Susan Collins made a TV appearance at 8am and spoke again at 9am.

At 8:30am, Governor Stephen Miran went on TV and Governor Michael Barr gave welcoming remarks at the 2025 National College Fed Challenge Finals. At 8:45am, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson spoke, followed by Dallas President Lorie Logan on a panel at 9am.

Commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers can provide foresight into the FOMC’s economic assessment and policy outlook, which investors can base their decisions around.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s November 20 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.26%, rising two basis points (0.02%) from the previous week. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures. Still, they’re a good way to track trends.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the rest of 2025 and 2026.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on October 13 and the MBA updated theirs on October 19.

In its Mortgage Market Outlook published Jan. 24, Freddie Mac wrote, “our outlook for the U.S. economy in 2025 is positive, though we expect the pace of growth to moderate. In late 2024, the U.S. labor market started showing signs of cooling and we expect that to persist in 2025. Modestly higher unemployment and slower job gains will reduce some of the pressures on inflation.”

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ