Mortgage Rates Decline Modestly | Today, May 6, 2026

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage rates pushed higher to start the week, with 30-year rates climbing to 6.46% on Monday and refinance rates jumping 14 basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield has since eased back to 4.36%, and oil dropped sharply from $103 to under $96, which could take some pressure off rates if the trend holds. Up next, Fed officials Alberto Musalem and Austan Goolsbee both speak today, and markets will be listening for any shift in tone on the path for rate cuts.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.435%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.775%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.609%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.358% from 4.414% (Good for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Mixed for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices decreased to $95.72 from $103.07 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices increased to $4,681.6 from $4,574.00 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased to 67.3 from 62.2 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greed” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Mortgage rates ticked higher to start May, with 30-year rates climbing to 6.46% on Monday before refinance rates jumped another 14 basis points on Tuesday. Freddie Mac’s latest weekly average landed at 6.3%, up 0.07% from the prior week. The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.358%, down from 4.414% last week, which could provide some relief down the road if rates follow suit.

Five economic reports, seven Fed speeches, and Friday’s jobs report make this a packed week.

Factory orders kicked things off Monday at 10am ET, followed by New York Fed President John Williams at 12:50pm ET. Today brings a double feature at 10am ET: new home sales and the ISM Services Index drop at the same time Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks. Fed Governor Michael Barr goes on at 12:30pm ET.

Wednesday starts with MBA mortgage applications at 7am ET. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks at 9:30am ET, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee goes on at 1pm ET.

Thursday is stacked. Initial jobless claims hit at 8:30am ET, followed by the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30am ET. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at 1pm ET, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack at 2:05pm ET, consumer credit data at 3pm ET, and John Williams makes his second appearance of the week at 3:30pm ET. The Fed balance sheet update drops at 4:30pm ET.

Friday is the main event. Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks early at 5:45am ET before the Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30am ET. Consumer sentiment rounds out the week at 10am ET. The jobs number will be the one to watch for house hunters hoping rates ease up. A soft labor market reading could push Treasury yields lower and give mortgage rates room to dip, while a hot number would do the opposite.

Gold climbed to $4,681.60 this week while oil dipped to $95.72 a barrel. The CNN Fear & Greed Index reads 67.3, firmly in greed territory. Stocks were essentially flat across the board.

Up next: all eyes on Friday’s jobs data.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s May 6 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.3%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.