Mortgage Rates Steady | Today, August 21, 2025

Today’s mortgage rates

Average fixed mortgage rates stayed pretty static from yesterday morning and from a week ago. They’ve trickled down over the last month and sit at a 2025 low point.

Today’s mix of economic indicators looks like it could put slight downward pressure on interest rates in the near-term.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.62%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.84%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 5.79%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.326% from 4.302%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes fell today. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they often sell bonds, pushing those prices down and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices decreased to $63.02 from $63.10 a barrel. (Neutral (but moving in a bad direction) for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices held at $3,389 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 54 from 55 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

Six economic reports come out today, accompanied by one Federal Reserve executive speaking.

At 7:30am ET, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic spoke on the economy at the at the Metro Atlanta Chamber Executive Governing Committee meeting. The next Fed rate cut decision comes on September 17.

The latest initial jobless claims jumped to 235,000 for the seven days ending Aug. 16, up from 224,000 the week prior and the forecasted 225,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing survey fell to a score of -0.3 in August, going backwards from July’s 15.9.

S&P released its flash Purchasing Managers’ Index for August. It showed a small dip in the services PMI decreasing to 55.4 from 55.7 in July. However, the manufacturing index grew to 53.3 from 49.8.

Their chief business economist, Chris Williamson gives a full picture breakdown of the latest reading:

"The data are consistent with the economy expanding at a 2.5% annualized rate, up from the average 1.3% expansion seen over the first two quarters of the year. Companies across both manufacturing and services are reporting stronger demand conditions, but are struggling to meet sales growth, causing backlogs of work to rise at a pace not seen since the pandemic-related capacity constraints recorded in early 2022. Stock building of finished goods has also risen at a survey record pace, linked in part to worries over future supply conditions."

“While this upturn in demand has fueled a surge in hiring, it has also bolstered firms’ pricing power. Companies have consequently passed tariff-related cost increases through to customers in increasing numbers, indicating that inflation pressures are now at their highest for three years."

“The resulting rise in selling prices for goods and services suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further above the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months. Indeed, combined with the upturn in business activity and hiring, the rise in prices signaled by the survey puts the PMI data more into rate hiking, rather than cutting, territory according to the historical relationship between these economic indicators and FOMC policy changes.”

A seasonally adjusted 4.01 million existing homes sold in July. That increased 2% from June and 0.8% year-over-year. The median sales price reached $422,400. That fell from $435,300 in June but rose from July 2024’s $421,400 — marking the 25th straight month of annual growth.

“The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. “Near-zero growth in home prices suggests that roughly half the country is experiencing price reductions.”

Lastly, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index decreased 0.1% in July, an incremental improvement over June’s 0.3% decline.

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s August 21 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.58%, holding flat from the previous week. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures. Still, they’re a good way to track trends.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the 2025.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on July 11 and the MBA updated theirs on July 17.

In its Mortgage Market Outlook published Jan. 24, Freddie Mac wrote, “our outlook for the U.S. economy in 2025 is positive, though we expect the pace of growth to moderate. In late 2024, the U.S. labor market started showing signs of cooling and we expect that to persist in 2025. Modestly higher unemployment and slower job gains will reduce some of the pressures on inflation.”

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Today’s mortgage rates FAQ