What Trump’s Win Could Mean for Housing: Experts Weigh In

President-elect Donald Trump is returning to the White House, and his policies may impact various sectors of the economy, including real estate and the housing market.

While he has provided limited specifics on some housing-related issues, his intentions are clearer on other objectives, such as the potential privatization of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the imposition of tariffs on other countries, potential changes to the Federal Reserve’s operations, and addressing undocumented immigration.

How might the housing market change under the Trump Administration? What will be the effect on home buyers and sellers? For answers and prognostications, we consulted a panel of trusted industry pros.

In this article (Skip to...)

• New policy hints
• Privatizing Fannie and Freddie
• Tariffs’ effect on housing
• Trump’s influence on the Fed
• Housing market outlook

What has Trump announced or hinted at?

Throughout his campaign, Trump has signaled various intentions that could affect housing and other sectors of the economy. While some policies have been clearly outlined, others remain speculative or in early stages. To shed light on what we can expect, we’ve gathered expert opinions on the administration’s housing-related priorities and broader policy signals.

Albert L. Lord III, founder/CEO, Lexerd Capital Management: “Proposed policy initiatives are focused on deregulation and immigration controls, all impacting housing affordability and market dynamics. First, Trump’s administration is expected to pursue the privatization of mortgage finance entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, aiming to reduce federal involvement in the housing market. This move has led to a significant increase in their stock values, reflecting investor optimism. Other plans include reducing environmental and zoning regulations to lower construction costs and increase housing supply. Trump has opposed complex zoning laws and building permits, suggesting that streamlining these processes could make housing more affordable. His administration also proposes restricting access to mortgages for undocumented immigrants and implementing mass deportations, which Trump argues will lower prices by reducing housing demand. However, experts caution that such measures if introduced abruptly could disrupt the construction labor market, potentially exacerbating housing shortages and increasing house prices. Additionally, Trump has pledged to reduce inflation and lower mortgage rates, aiming to make homeownership more accessible.”

Rick Sharga, president/CEO of CJ Patrick Company: “The Trump campaign didn’t spend a lot of time discussing housing-specific policies, but it pledged to eliminate unnecessary regulations, which could speed up construction and reduce costs. The President-elect has also mentioned opening up government-owned land and making it available for affordable housing construction. The Trump Administration may also consider expanding the Qualified Opportunity Zone (QOZ) program that was implemented during its first term. This program was reasonably successful in bringing much-needed capital into underserved and underdeveloped areas, delivering a win/win scenario for these communities and the investors who provided the development funds in exchange for relief on their capital gains taxes. Trump is unlikely to pursue some of the policies espoused by the Biden Administration and the Harris campaign calling for rent control, a cap on investment properties, and a dramatic increase in the capital gains tax rate. Eliminating or not implementing these policies should result in a more robust environment for real estate investors.”

Dennis Shirshikov, professor of finance and economics at City University of New York/Queens College: “The Trump administration has signaled a renewed focus on housing policy reform. This aligns with longstanding Republican priorities to reduce federal involvement in housing finance. Additionally, early indications suggest Trump is exploring ways to streamline regulatory requirements in real estate, including potential modifications to the Dodd-Frank Act, which could impact mortgage lending standards and credit availability.”

Clifford Rossi, professor of the practice and director of the Smith Enterprise Risk Consortium at the University of Maryland: “During the 2024 Presidential campaign, Trump did not really put forward a well-articulated plan to address affordability and access to housing, among other issues. The Trump plan was to reduce housing demand, and thus lower pressure on home prices, by deporting migrants and putting in place policies aimed at reducing inflation and interest rates. However, presidents wield little direct control over interest rates, and inflation and deportation strategies may actually backfire as homebuilders have a dependency on unskilled labor, a large percent of which comes from migrant workers.”

Zev Freidus, president of ZFC Real Estate: “Trump has historically advocated for reducing federal oversight in housing and allowing the private sector to take a more prominent role in real estate financing. Such actions could streamline processes for some, but they also raise questions about access and affordability for first-time buyers or those with lower credit scores.”

How would privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac influence housing?

Privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is a topic that has sparked considerable debate among policymakers and housing market experts. To understand the possible impacts of such a shift, we’ve gathered insights from experts who offer a range of perspectives on how privatization could reshape the housing market.

Kenon Chen, executive vice president, Strategy and Growth, Clear Capital: “Privatizing them could be seen as unfinished business since the last time government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) reform was actively pursued was the second half of the first Trump presidency. Since the Supreme Court’s FHFA decision in 2021, there does appear to be a path in which the Treasury and FHFA could work together on exiting the GSEs from conservatorship without involving Congress. It will be important for the government to clarify its role in guaranteeing the stability of the GSEs to prevent the risk of disrupting homeowners, home buyers, and housing industry participants.”

Sharga: “The argument for releasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from their government conservatorship is twofold. First, spinning them off as private companies would likely net the government over $300 billion in profits; second, it would remove over $8 trillion in liabilities from the government’s ledgers. And most conservative politicians would prefer that the private markets play a larger role in the mortgage industry than they do today, where the government – through the FHFA, FHA, VA, and USDA – touches almost 90% of all mortgage loans. Ending the conservatorship, however, is going to be complicated, and difficult: partly because Fannie and Freddie are involved directly with about 70% of mortgages today, partly because of the amount of capital that would need to be raised to make the two organizations viable as stand-alone private entities, and partly because executing this release poorly would disrupt the entire mortgage ecosystem.”

Lord: “Privatization could lead to higher mortgage rates as private investors demand higher returns, substituting government’s guarantee, potentially making housing less affordable for buyers. Sellers might face reduced demand due to increased borrowing costs. Through the secondary market, liquidity and investors’ confidence may be impacted, all leading to increased mortgage costs. However, despite these potential costs, privatization could promote market competition and innovation in housing finance over time.”

Rossi: “Recapitalizing and releasing both GSEs from their current state of suspended animation in conservatorship would bring finality to the policies put in place to address the 2008 financial crisis. Doing so would be the greatest initial public offering (IPO) in history. Recap and release of Fannie and Freddie makes sense but only if they combine the two companies into one GSE. Policies put in place since their conservatorship such as the common security effectively removed any real differences between the two companies.”

Shirshikov: “Trump views privatization as a way to foster competition and limit taxpayer exposure to financial risk. However, achieving full privatization would require legislative support, and bipartisan resistance could pose significant challenges. If successful, privatization would likely lead to higher interest rates on home loans. Buyers, particularly those with lower credit scores, may face stricter lending standards, while sellers could see fewer qualified buyers in the market.”

How would Trump tariffs affect the housing market?

Trump’s tariffs on foreign goods have raised concerns about their impact on the housing market. While some predict higher costs for construction materials, others see broader effects on market stability. We’ve gathered expert insights on how these tariffs could shape the housing sector.

Shirshikov: “Tariffs on imports from countries like Mexico, Canada, and China could increase the cost of building materials such as lumber, steel, and fixtures, driving up construction costs for new homes. Higher construction costs would translate to increased home prices, particularly in regions with significant new development. For buyers, this would exacerbate affordability challenges, especially for first-time buyers or those in markets already constrained by high prices. Sellers might benefit in the short term from higher home valuations but could also face reduced buyer demand due to affordability constraints.”

Sharga: “A lot depends on specifically what types of goods or products have higher tariffs placed on them, and how much higher these tariffs are than those currently in place. For example, the President-elect has proposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada, but the U.S. already has a 14.5% tariff on Canadian lumber. Multiple tariffs already exist on imports from China – accounting for $77 billion of the $79 billion the U.S. took in from tariffs in 2024, according to the Tax Foundation – so it’s difficult to ascertain exactly what the impact might be to changes in the tariff program. But the bottom line is that higher tariffs almost always result in higher prices and lower inventory levels.”

Chen: “A lot will depend on how wide the tariffs are on goods, especially housing materials. A blanket tariff that affects steel and lumber at the same time could certainly increase construction costs for new homes. Meanwhile, existing homeowners are still less likely to sell given the lock-in effect created by having mortgages well below the current market.”

Can and will Trump exert more control over the Federal Reserve?

Trump has often expressed interest in influencing the Federal Reserve, raising questions about the level of control he might exert over its policies. While some see it as a natural extension of his economic agenda, others worry about the potential impact on independence. We’ve gathered expert opinions on what this could mean for the future of the Fed.

Lord: “While Trump often criticized the Federal Reserve and its policies, the institution operates independently, protected by law from direct political influence. However, Trump may attempt to exert influence by nominating allies to the Fed’s Board of Governors. This indirect control could shape monetary policy if his nominees aligned with his economic views. If this happens, the expectation is that interest rates will be lower without assurances of containing inflation. If Trump’s influence led to lower interest rates, it could make borrowing cheaper, spurring home purchases and boosting affordability. However, long-term inflation risks or market volatility from perceived Fed politicization could offset these benefits. Lower interest rates might increase demand for homes, enabling sellers to capture higher prices. But any instability in financial markets or rising inflation could dampen overall economic growth, potentially weakening housing demand over time.”

Rossi: “It would be a terrible idea if the Trump Administration attempts to wrest control over monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The macroeconomy should never become a political pawn for any party in power – you only have to look at the current fiscal mess to see that extending authority over the Federal Reserve by the President, other than by appointments to key positions, would potentially destabilize financial markets. Markets don’t like uncertainty.”

Shirshikov: “For buyers, lower interest rates would provide relief from high mortgage costs, while sellers could benefit from increased demand. However, any perception of political interference with the Federal Reserve might unsettle financial markets, adding uncertainty to the broader economic environment.”

Chen: “Some banking regulatory reform seems likely. However, Trump recently said he has no plans to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term runs till May of 2026. Perhaps that indicates a somewhat restrained approach to the Fed over the next year.”

Sharga: “Any fundamental change in the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the Federal Government would require an act of Congress. The most likely scenario is that he’ll use his bully pulpit to campaign for the Fed to lower rates.”

How can mass deportation of undocumented immigrants impact the housing market?

Mass deportation of undocumented immigrants could have significant consequences for the housing market, affecting both demand and supply. While some argue it could lead to a decrease in housing demand, others point to potential labor shortages in construction. Experts weigh in on how this policy might influence housing trends.

Lord: “Deporting a significant number of individuals could reduce the demand for rental properties, especially in areas with high immigrant populations. This might lead to an oversupply of rental units, decreasing rental prices and impacting property owners’ income. Many undocumented immigrants work in construction. Their deportation could lead to labor shortages, driving up construction costs and slowing the building of new homes, which could exacerbate housing supply shortages and increase home prices for buyers. The sudden outflow of people could destabilize local housing markets in immigrant-heavy areas, potentially reducing property values and creating challenges for sellers looking to exit the market. Buyers might face higher prices for new homes due to increased construction costs or fewer housing options if construction slows. Conversely, they could benefit from lower prices in areas where demand drops significantly. Sellers in affected areas might struggle to find buyers if local markets experience significant depopulation or economic strain, leading to slower sales and potential declines in property values.”

Shirshikov: “In areas with large immigrant populations, decreased demand for rental properties could lead to lower rents and property values. For buyers, this could mean higher prices for newly constructed homes and longer timelines for custom builds. Sellers in immigrant-heavy areas might face decreased demand, leading to slower sales and potential price reductions.”

Sharga: “A very high percentage of construction workers are immigrants, and many are undocumented immigrants. Mass deportations and stricter enforcement of existing immigration laws could quickly result in labor shortages for homebuilders. At a minimum, this will slow down construction, extending the current under-supply of homes.”

What kind of a national housing market do you expect under Trump?

From potential regulatory changes to shifts in economic priorities, experts have different views on how Trump’s approach could shape the housing landscape. Here’s how experts foresee the housing market evolving during Trump’s tenure.

Andrew Lokenauth, a personal finance expert and founder of TheFinanceNewsletter.com: “I expect moderate growth but with some market volatility and uncertainty likely in the short term. Home prices might rise 3-5% annually, based on current trends. New construction could increase if regulations are reduced, and regional markets will likely vary significantly, but housing affordability might decrease. In the mortgage market, banks might see looser regulations, credit availability could expand, interest rates might fluctuate more than usual, and mortgage qualification rules could become less strict.”

Martin Orefice, founder, Rent To Own Labs: “The issue with predicting housing market dynamics under a Trump administration is that his rhetoric tends to outrun his abilities – except when it doesn’t. For example, his plans to disband Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, or to fire the chair of the Federal Reserve, are unlikely to happen, but they are likely to inject a lot of uncertainty into the mortgage market. This could pressure people to lock in mortgages before anything changes, leading to higher rates, or it could lead people to wait until the dust settles, bringing rates down. He wants to reduce environmental regulations, which could allow for more construction, but his hard-line stance on labor, especially unskilled labor could devastate the construction industry.”

Shirshikov: “The housing market is likely to emphasize deregulation and privatization, with mixed results. While sellers in strong economic regions may benefit from rising property values, buyers could face higher borrowing costs and tighter lending conditions. The overall market will likely become more segmented, with high-growth areas continuing to attract demand while affordability challenges persist in others. Trump’s focus on reducing federal involvement in housing finance could pave the way for long-term market stability, but short-term challenges, such as higher mortgage rates and construction costs, may offset these gains.”

Freidus: “I anticipate a mixed housing market. Policies that favor deregulation and private-sector growth could stimulate investment and inventory in some areas, benefiting buyers by addressing housing shortages. However, these same policies might disproportionately favor high-income buyers while limiting access for first-time and lower-income buyers. Sellers may benefit from sustained demand in certain regions but could face challenges in areas impacted by tariffs, labor shortages, or economic uncertainty. The market’s performance will depend heavily on how proposed policies are implemented and how broader economic conditions evolve.”

Sharga: “There’s usually a significant difference between campaign rhetoric and actual policy implementation, so we likely won’t see the most extreme manifestations of some of the proposals made by president-elect Donald Trump. And there’s usually a lag time between policies being implemented and their impact on the market itself. So the impact on the 2025 housing market may not be dramatic, although it does seem likely that Trump’s plans for deportation and higher tariffs could negatively impact the number of new homes built while increasing their prices. Specific policies notwithstanding, the U.S. economy and the housing market both did very well during the first Trump presidency, and that should provide some degree of hope for a repeat performance over the next four years.”

Lord: “I anticipate a mixed housing market with conflicting trends and outcomes. Some of Trump’s policies will improve the housing market on the supply side with buyers and sellers benefiting from regulatory initiatives and contained interest rates; however, other policies will create price inflation and exacerbate structural market issues such as affordability, labor shortages, and regional supply/demand mismatch.”

Chen: “Overall, I expect a lot more focus on methods that enable the growth of financial institutions, including the strengthening of the GSEs in preparation for an exit from conservatorship. Deregulation could certainly foster some additional innovation in the products available for consumers looking to finance a home.”

The bottom line

As we’ve seen, the Trump administration’s policies could have significant implications for the housing market, from potential changes in housing finance and tariffs to shifts in control of the Fed and immigration laws.

As these policies unfold, it will be crucial to monitor their effects and stay informed on how they may continue to influence the housing landscape in the years ahead. If you’re ready to purchase a home, now might be a good time to explore lenders and understand your financing options.

Important Note: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the experts quoted and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the Mortgage Reports staff. The content is intended for informational purposes.