A drop in home prices? Here’s where it’s most likely

Home prices could see a downward turn

If you’re holding out hope that home prices will start to decline, you might be in luck. According to new data, the chance of dropping prices is up — especially in the high-cost markets on the West Coast.

Hope for lower home prices

According to the Spring 2019 Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) from Arch MI, the probability of home prices declining is up. At the national level, HaMMR shows that there’s a 9 percent chance home prices will drop in the next two years.

In some states, though, the chance is much higher. In North Dakota, for example, there’s a 27 percent chance that home prices will decline in the near-term. Over in Alaska, the probability is 24 percent. That’s actually down from last quarter but the second-highest probability of declines in the nation.

“A number of states have above average risk, with North Dakota, Alaska and Wyoming having a roughly one in four chance of experiencing a price decline (of any size, even modest declines),” HaMMR reported.

Home price growth expected to slow even more in 2019, experts say

Other states with high chances of dipping prices include West Virginia, Connecticut, Wyoming, Oregon, Washington, Texas, Colorado, California, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Louisiana, Nevada and Idaho.

At the city level, Miami; San Antonio, Texas; Bridgeport and New Haven, Connecticut; and Portland, Oregon are most likely to see home prices drop.

Where home prices have slowed the most

Who’s least likely to see lower prices?

On the other end of the spectrum are states in the Midwest and Northeast. There, the probability of dipping home prices is extremely low.

States with a less-than-5 percent chance of declining prices include Montana, Utah, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont and Maine.

Still, that doesn’t mean there’s no chance of a downward turn. According to HaMMR, “There are many possible economic shocks that could cause housing market conditions to deteriorate over the next year or two.”

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