Mortgage rates today, Nov. 11, and rate forecast for next week

Today’s mortgage rates

Average mortgage rates just inched higher yesterday. And they climbed appreciably over the last seven days.

Sorry, but I’m back to chickening out over making a prediction of how mortgage rates might move next week. The current volatility reduces such predictions to guesswork. And we have a series of inflation reports (plus retail sales figures) coming up, any of which could send mortgage rates sharply higher or lower, depending on what they say.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

I said last week that “It’s more likely today [Nov. 4] that we could soon see a sustained and significant downward trend than it was last Saturday.” And that’s still probably the case, though less so.

However, we saw this week some sharp rises in mortgage rates that suggest any such trend probably remains months away.

So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

What’s moving current mortgage rates

This week

This week’s biggest rise in mortgage rates came on Thursday and was in response to two events.

First, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told markets that they’d misinterpreted what he’d said eight days earlier and that further hikes in general interest rates remained firmly on the Fed’s table. It was that misinterpretation that had mainly triggered the sharp falls in mortgage rates in the previous week.

And, secondly, an auction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds created less demand than had been expected. That affected bonds generally, and mortgage rates are largely determined by the yield on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS).

Neither of these will go away anytime soon. And they’ll likely remain a drag on mortgage rate falls for a while. Our best hope for a good week for those rates is excellent (meaning lower-than-expected) inflation data over the next few days.

Next week

Those inflation data are due on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of next week. But by far the most important day is Tuesday when October’s consumer price index (CPI) is scheduled to land.

Markets are expecting a decent report, with rises in all prices slowing in October to 0.1%. Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, are expected to hold steady at their September rate of 0.3%.

Unfortunately, it’s not good enough for the data to match those expectations. For mortgage rates to fall, they’d normally have to be different from what’s anticipated. For inflation, that means a slower rate of rising prices. For other economic data, mortgage rates tend to fall when the economy’s struggling.

Of course, the converse holds true. If inflation is higher (and other data better) than expected, mortgage rates are likely to rise.

The two other inflation reports are the producer price index (PPI) on Wednesday and the import price index (IPI) on Thursday. These are much less important than the CPI. However, they do measure how prices are moving earlier in the supply chain (including at factory gates, in warehouses and at ports) so their numbers will likely feed through into coming CPIs. So, markets may or may not ignore them, depending on what they say.

Next week’s other important economic report is Wednesday’s retail sales data for October. Markets are already expecting a significant fall in those so they’d have to be even worse than expected to exert downward pressure on mortgage rates. If they’re appreciably better, those rates might rise.

Economic reports next week

See the last section for details about the most important economic reports next week.

In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.

• Tuesday — October consumer price index. Plus optimism index among small businesses from the National Federation of Independent Business
• Wednesday — October retail sales. Plus the producer price index
• Thursday — October import price index and industrial production. Also initial claims for jobless benefits for the week ending Nov. 11

In addition to these reports, senior Fed officials have speaking engagements (18 in all) every day next week. These are unlikely to be as influential as those given by Mr. Powell but they could still affect markets.

Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you

Mortgage rates forecast for next week

Almost certainly, what happens to mortgage rates next week will largely be determined by inflation reports over the next few days. Wednesday’s retail sales figures might make a difference, too.

The trouble is, I have no idea what those reports will say. So, I can’t even hazard a guess as to what might happen to mortgage rates next week.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.

And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.

Your part

But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:

1. Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
2. Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
3. Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
4. Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
5. Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?

Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.

Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:

• Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
• Interest — The price of borrowing
• Taxes — Specifically property taxes
• Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance

Our mortgage calculator can help with these.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.

But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.