Mortgage rates today, May 11, and rate forecast for next week

Today’s mortgage rates

Average mortgage rates inched infinitesimally higher yesterday. But those rates closed last night appreciably lower than they stood seven days earlier. So, it was a good week.

There was little on this week’s calendar that was likely to change the mood in markets. But a number of major economic reports are scheduled for the coming seven days. And that means mortgage rates next week are impossible to predict. We’ll just have to wait to see what the data say.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

We’ve now had two consecutive weeks of falling mortgage rates. That’s great, but it doesn’t constitute a trend. Such periods of ups and downs are inevitable but rarely indicative of future movements.

Indeed, mortgage rates have been following an upward trend for more than three years. I remain hopeful that will turn around and we’ll see consistent falls later this year. But few are expecting such a change before the late summer or fall.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

What’s moving current mortgage rates

Last week saw two things generate falling mortgage rates: a worse jobs report and a less hawkish Federal Reserve message than had been expected.

This week brought no reasons for mortgage rates to rise. And so the momentum from the previous week kept going.

Next week could be very different. It brings some hugely influential economic reports, most importantly the consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday. But will they drive mortgage rates lower or push them higher? Only time will tell.

Next week’s CPI

Two economic reports vie for the top spot as the one that influences markets most. Some months, it’s the jobs report. Others, it’s the consumer price index. Right now, I suspect the CPI has the greater potential for volatility.

Of course, we won’t know whether it will deliver, lower, higher or unchanged mortgage rates until we see Wednesday morning’s actual figures.

Right now, markets are trading ahead of the report based on expert forecasts. If those are correct (and they often aren’t), mortgage rates may barely move. That’s because investors will already be in their optimal position and won’t need to trade further.

It’s when those forecasts are wrong that markets are likely to be volatile. If the CPI shows inflation running cooler than markets are expecting, we could see mortgage rates fall. But, if it’s hotter, we might see those rates rising.

The CPI and some other inflation reports are broken down into four parts. Two cover movements during the month being surveyed, which this time is April. The other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures, in this case, May 1, 2023 through April 30, 2024.

One of each set of monthly and YOY data measures the all-items index. The others gauge “core” CPI, which is the all-items index after volatile food and energy prices have been stripped out. Economists reckon that lets them see the underlying inflation rate absent that noisy volatility.

Market expectations for the CPI

Let’s look at the current expert forecasts for those four numbers:

• April CPI — Markets expecting a 0.4% rise, up from March’s 0.3%
• YOY CPI — Markets expecting a 3.4% rise, down from March’s 3.5%
• April core CPI — Markets expecting a 0.3% rise, down from March’s 0.4%
• YOY core CPI — Markets expecting a 3.6% rise, down from March’s 3.8%

Remember, it’s the size of the gap, if any, between those and next Wednesday’s actuals that determines whether and how far mortgage rates move in response.

Other economic reports next week

The CPI’s little siblings also come out to play next week. They’re Tuesday’s producer price index (PPI) and Thursday’s import price index (IPI). And they both cover April.

The PPI in particular can be capable of moving mortgage rates. But any changes on Tuesday will likely be more than wiped out by Wednesday’s consumer index.

The other key report next week provides retail sales data for April on Wednesday. This can sometimes be influential but is likely to be cast into the shadows by the same day’s almighty CPI.

Indeed, all other reports next week, which include industrial production and housing starts and building permits may well be similarly overshadowed.

Various senior Federal Reserve officials have speaking engagements next week. Markets may pay more attention to those the further out they are from their last meeting on May 1. That’s because investors want to know how subsequent data are affecting their thinking on future cuts in general interest rates.

Watch out in particular for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday morning. Markets always hang on his every word.,

Summary of economic reports and events next week

See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.

In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.

• Monday — Nothing
• Tuesday — April PPI. Fed chair's speech
• Wednesday — April CPI. Plus April retail sales. And the home builder confidence index for May
• Thursday — April IPI, housing starts and building permits, and industrial production. Also, initial jobless claims during the week ending May 11
• Friday — April leading economic indicators

Wednesday could be huge. But not necessarily.

Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you

Mortgage rates forecast for next week

The fate of mortgage rates next week hinges on Wednesday’s CPI. And nobody has any certain idea what that will say.

So, I have to say mortgage rates next week are unpredictable.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.

And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.

Your part

But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:

1. Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
2. Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
3. Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
4. Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
5. Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?

Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.

Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:

• Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
• Interest — The price of borrowing
• Taxes — Specifically property taxes
• Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance

Our mortgage calculator can help with these.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.

But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.